导读
2023年的中国经济通过全面深化改革，不断扩大开放，加大宏观调控力度，着力扩大内需、优化结构、提振信心、防范化解风险，整体经济形势保持着稳健发展态势。面对中国数字经济发展的新机遇，清华大学互联网产业研究院联合清华大学互联网治理研究中心、伏羲智库，在过去多年对数字经济研究成果基础上，共同总结研判了2024年中国数字经济发展的十个趋势。
一是2024年数字基础设施建设与产业数字生态将进一步融合，面向数据要素市场、企业数字化场景的云计算、区块链、人工智能基础设施建设提速。2024年，预计数据基础设施建设在全国将遍地开花。云计算等算力基础设施开始全面支撑企业资产上云、产业链上云、产业集群上云，为产业集群实现协同奠定基础。区块链等数据基础设施将在部分发达城市开始全面建设，用以支撑当地数字信用体系建立，从而用高可信的数字营商环境促进当地经济的发展。人工智能等应用基础设施建设提速，在生成式人工智能（AIGC）推动下，人工智能的产业应用场景在2024年逐渐明晰，并率先在交通、健康、环保等领域形成区域乃至全国性的人工智能基础设施。二是2024年面向“横向打通、纵向贯通”的经济基础设施将加快布局。宏观层面上，全国统一的数据市场规则开始建立；微观层面上，领先的企业将开始大量探索新型数字化生产关系。数据只有在流动中才能更好体现其价值，建立一个更大范围的数据安全可靠流通体系，是发展数字经济的重要前提。为此，必须通过技术方案和法规制度，加快政府、产业各层级的“横向打通、纵向贯通”，打造新型的数字化生产关系，为一体化推进数字中国建设奠定基础。
三是2024年成为数据资源进入企业财务报表元年，围绕数据资产化，本年度逐渐形成与其相关的技术体系、服务体系和监管体系，数据资源进入企业财务报表规模有望达到百亿量级。根据财政部印发的《企业数据资源相关会计处理暂行规定》《关于加强数据资产管理的指导意见》等文件，2024年成为数据资源进入企业财务报表的元年。数据不同于其他的资产，为了避免产生资产泡沫，必须建立企业数据资产的技术服务体系，以解决数据资产的封装、确权、追踪等问题；建立市场服务体系，以解决数据产品设计、登记、流通、交易等问题；建立监管体系，以保证数据市场的有效、公平和高效。
四是释放数字需求已经成为2024年扩大内需的重要内容，政府和产业级的数字需求会成为数字经济发展的新动力，在政府主导下，在建设、医疗、教育等领域，有望率先形成规范化的数字需求市场。
五是对第一产业，数字农业将成为全面乡村振兴重要的抓手和驱动力。2024年数据要素市场将与农业深度融合，并开始改变农业生产、流通的传统模式，全国各地将探索规范、可信、高价值的数字农业新范式。六是面向第二产业，2024年工业互联网建设将加速，工业互联网平台成为传统产业数字化转型的重要途径，在百花齐放的工业互联网平台推动下，将形成大量各具特色的产业集群。2024年，中国的新能源汽车、光伏等制造业产业链面临打造具有全球竞争力的工业互联网平台的机遇，一些领军企业将在国家统一布局下，建设一批各具特色的工业互联网平台。 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
七是对第三产业，围绕数据要素市场的第三产业在2024年将快速兴起；传统“三产”的数字化转型也将加速，尤其是数字金融、数字健康、数字文旅、数字科创等产业，2024年会涌现大量新模式。2024年在相关政策鼓励下，会出现数字化新模式，为百姓创造高品质的数字消费新路径。凝聚数据汇聚、知识创造主要职能的科技创新领域的数字化逐步加强，将与产业发展通过数据要素流通打通，为区域科技创新打造知识交换新动力。 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
八是跨境数据贸易作为服务贸易的重要组成部分，2024年将有重要突破，相关的技术、法规体系初步建立。中国将成为建立数据互联互通、互利互惠的贸易规则的倡导者、先行者。为适应全球数字经济可持续发展的强烈需求，2024年促进数据跨境互联互通的双多边合作仍将持续开展，中国也将积极探索可行的制度模式、技术方案和产业实践。
九是“数字”与“绿色”成为2024年中国经济发展的两个关键词，数字化与绿色化将在2024年通过建立碳数据体系等措施进一步深度融合，企业将通过数字化实现更高水平的绿色化、通过绿色化获得更高价值的数字化，数字碳中和路径见雏形。
十是2024年地缘政治局势将引发网络空间治理模式的进一步转变，全球数字合作与治理的新平台不断涌现，中国将在全球数字治理秩序建立过程中发挥更大作用，中国企业将迎来数字领域全球化的新机遇。2024年将涌现更多全球数字合作与治理新兴平台，尤其是“全球数字契约”有望在联合国层面开启全新的数字领域平台机制，为全球数字合作创造一个更加开放包容的生态。2024年，中国在国际网络空间治理中也将发挥更为重要的作用，用中国行动推动全球数字经济的协同发展。在这一过程中，中国企业也必将迎来一轮数字领域全球化的新机遇。 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
翻译：
Ten trends of China’s digital economy development in 2024
introduction
In 2023, the Chinese economy will continue to expand opening-up through comprehensively deepening reform, intensify macro-control, expand domestic demand, optimize the structure, boost confidence, and prevent and defuse risks. The overall economic situation will maintain a steady momentum of development. In the face of new opportunities for the development of China’s digital economy, the Internet Industry Research Institute of Tsinghua University, together with the Internet Governance Research Center of Tsinghua University and the Fuxi Think Tank, on the basis of the research results of the digital economy over the past years, jointly summarized and judged ten trends in the development of China’s digital economy in 2024. 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
First, in 2024, digital infrastructure construction and industrial digital ecology will be further integrated, and the construction of cloud computing, blockchain, and artificial intelligence infrastructure for data element markets and enterprise digital scenarios will be accelerated. By 2024, data infrastructure is expected to be built all over the country. Computing power infrastructure such as cloud computing began to fully support the cloud on enterprise assets, the cloud on the industrial chain, and the cloud on industrial clusters, laying the foundation for the coordination of industrial clusters. Blockchain and other data infrastructure will begin to be fully built in some developed cities to support the establishment of local digital credit systems, so as to promote the development of local economy with a highly trusted digital business environment. The construction of artificial intelligence and other application infrastructure is accelerating, and driven by generative artificial intelligence (AIGC), the industrial application scenarios of artificial intelligence will gradually become clear in 2024, and take the lead in forming regional and even national artificial intelligence infrastructure in transportation, health, environmental protection and other fields. Second, the layout of economic infrastructure for “horizontal opening and vertical connecting” will be accelerated in 2024. At the macro level, the national unified data market rules began to be established; At the micro level, leading companies will begin to explore new digital production relationships in large numbers. Only in the flow of data can better reflect its value, the establishment of a wider range of data safe and reliable circulation system, is an important premise for the development of digital economy. To this end, it is necessary to speed up the “horizontal opening and vertical penetration” of government and industry at all levels through technical solutions and legal systems, create a new type of digital production relations, and lay the foundation for the integration and promotion of the construction of digital China. 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
Third, 2024 will be the first year for data resources to enter the financial statements of enterprises. Focusing on data assets, this year will gradually form its related technical system, service system and regulatory system, and the scale of data resources entering the financial statements of enterprises is expected to reach tens of billions. According to the Interim Provisions on Accounting Treatment Related to Enterprise Data Resources issued by the Ministry of Finance, the Guiding Opinions on Strengthening the Management of Data Assets and other documents, 2024 has become the first year for data resources to enter the financial statements of enterprises. Data is different from other assets, in order to avoid asset bubbles, it is necessary to establish a technical service system for enterprise data assets to solve the problems of encapsulation, ownership and tracking of data assets. Establish a market service system to solve the problems of data product design, registration, circulation and trading; Establish a regulatory system to ensure that data markets are effective, fair and efficient.
Fourth, the release of digital demand has become an important part of expanding domestic demand in 2024, and the digital demand of the government and industry will become a new driving force for the development of the digital economy. Under the leadership of the government, a standardized digital demand market is expected to take the lead in the construction, medical care, education and other fields.
Fifth, for the primary industry, digital agriculture will become an important starting point and driving force for comprehensive rural revitalization. In 2024, the data factor market will be deeply integrated with agriculture and begin to change the traditional model of agricultural production and circulation, and a new paradigm of standardized, trusted and high-value digital agriculture will be explored across the country. Sixth, for the secondary industry, the construction of the industrial Internet will accelerate in 2024, and the industrial Internet platform will become an important way for the digital transformation of traditional industries, and a large number of industrial clusters with their own characteristics will be formed under the promotion of the industrial Internet platform. In 2024, China’s new energy vehicles, photovoltaic and other manufacturing industry chains face the opportunity to build globally competitive industrial Internet platforms, and some leading enterprises will build a number of industrial Internet platforms with their own characteristics under the unified layout of the country.
Seventh, for the tertiary industry, the tertiary industry centering on the data factor market will rise rapidly in 2024; The digital transformation of the traditional “three industries” will also accelerate, especially in digital finance, digital health, digital cultural tourism, digital science and technology innovation and other industries, and a large number of new models will emerge in 2024. In 2024, with the encouragement of relevant policies, a new digital model will emerge and create a new path of high-quality digital consumption for the people. The digitalization in the field of scientific and technological innovation, which integrates the main functions of data aggregation and knowledge creation, will be gradually strengthened, which will be connected with industrial development through the circulation of data elements, and create a new impetus for knowledge exchange for regional scientific and technological innovation.
As an important part of service trade, cross-border data trade will have an important breakthrough in 2024, and the relevant technology and regulatory system will be preliminarily established. China will become an advocate and pioneer in establishing trade rules for data connectivity and mutual benefit. In order to meet the strong demand for sustainable development of the global digital economy, bilateral and multilateral cooperation to promote cross-border data connectivity will continue to be carried out in 2024, and China will actively explore feasible institutional models, technical solutions and industrial practices. 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
Ninth, “digital” and “green” become the two keywords of China’s economic development in 2024, digitalization and green will be further integrated through the establishment of carbon data system and other measures in 2024, enterprises will achieve a higher level of green through digitalization, through green to obtain higher value of digitalization, digital carbon neutral path to see the beginning.
The geopolitical situation in 2024 will trigger a further transformation of the governance model of cyberspace, new platforms for global digital cooperation and governance continue to emerge, China will play a greater role in the establishment of the global digital governance order, and Chinese enterprises will usher in new opportunities for the globalization of the digital field. In 2024, more emerging platforms for global digital cooperation and governance will emerge, especially the Global Digital Compact, which is expected to open a new platform mechanism in the digital field at the UN level, creating a more open and inclusive ecology for global digital cooperation. In 2024, China will also play a more important role in international cyberspace governance, and promote the coordinated development of the global digital economy with Chinese actions. In this process, Chinese enterprises will also usher in a new round of digital globalization opportunities. 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
本文由数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）转载而成，来源于清华大学，先进制造业；编辑/翻译：数字化转型网宁檬树。
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