Jody Serrano负责Gizmodo的在线社区。自从Elon Musk今年早些时候决定收购推特(Twitter)以来，她似乎受到了诅咒，每天都要写关于推特或Musk的文章。她在社交媒体上广泛报道了从草药流产到抗抑郁药等话题的医疗错误信息。
一、头条新闻
2022年是推特和Elon Musk的一年：不断上演的烂剧。2023年，我们将继续看到Musk之前的老Twitter被摧毁，但它将为一个新的社交媒体平台创造多年来的第一个真正的机会。
这并不意味着Twitter很快就会消亡，但有很多人不喜欢蓝鸟应用程序变成的样子。这些人正在寻找一个新的社交媒体平台，给他们提供类似于旧Twitter提供的微博体验，甚至更好。
已经有竞争对手了:自从Musk 10月底接管Twitter以来，Mastodon的用户群已经从每月30万活跃用户激增到250万。Hive曾被认为是一个很有前途的早期竞争者，但在面临安全问题后短暂关闭。还有由Waze前首席执行官Noam Bardin创立的Post News。前Twitter员工是“将文化放在首位的新一代社交平台”Spill的幕后推手，该平台将于1月底推出。
二、我们在等待什么
1、Meta克隆Twitter：难以置信的是，作为山寨之王，Meta竟然没有抓住Twitter的机会推出自己的克隆产品。它当然有足够的资金、经验和智慧来这样做。在Mark Zuckerberg和Elon Musk执掌的公司之间做出选择，就相当于选择你想生活在地狱的哪一层，但无论如何，我选择Zuck而不是Musk。至少还有内容指南、审核团队和公关人员在那里。
2、更多州禁止TikTok：目前，美国十多个州禁止在政府设备上使用TikTok。国会已经禁止在包括联邦机构在内的行政部门操作的设备上使用TikTok。禁令通过后，众议院开始在议员和工作人员使用的官方设备上禁止TikTok。不断增长的反TikTok情绪可能会导致更多州禁止TikTok，以迫使TikTok的中国母公司字节跳动剥离TikTok的美国业务。考虑到美国和中国之间冰冷的关系，双方都不太可能从这场对峙中退缩。
3、Parler将被关闭：在Instagram和Twitter被限制使用后，Kanye West公开表示有意收购右翼社交媒体应用程序Parler，这可能是Parler今年收到的最大推动。在West(法律上称为Ye)退出交易后，很难看出Parler还有什么值得留下的地方。
三、非常规的看法
Elon Musk从著名的创新者变成了推特(Twitter)的暴君，这让他变成了科技界最不受欢迎的人。Musk的名字正在变成一种负担。特斯拉(Tesla)的股价今年已经下跌了约60%，Neuralink因涉嫌虐待动物而接受联邦调查，推特(Twitter)则一团糟。
围绕Musk的所有愤怒和讨论意味着Meta的Mark Zuckerberg看到他的罪恶被Elon Musk秀淹没了。Musk在推特解雇了大约4000人(不包括承包商)，取笑他解雇的人，甚至拒绝支付推特前高管团队的薪水。与此同时，Zuckerberg解雇了1.1万名员工，但对错误负责，并提供了慷慨的遣散费，包括16周的带薪休假、6个月的医疗保险和移民支持。他感谢那些被解雇的员工，并表示，如果没有他们的辛勤工作，Meta就不会有今天。
2023年，Mark Zuckerberg将重塑自己的形象，为他的公司建立良好的声誉。Facebook的用户增长将继续放缓，但不会下降。Zuckerberg在这里有机会兑现他过去的道歉和改变做法的承诺：他是否能在足够长的时间内停止修补元宇宙，这是一个真正的问题。
四、关注的人群
1、Jonathan Greenblatt：反诽谤联盟的首席执行官。Greenblatt一直直言不讳地批评社交媒体上的仇恨言论、错误信息和反犹太主义。看看他如何看待那些争夺Twitter老用户的新社交媒体平台，这将是一件很有趣的事情。
2、Ryan Marino博士：毒理学家和芬太尼专家。2022年是芬太尼走红的一年，这意味着很多关于芬太尼的错误信息开始传播。Marino可以说是社交媒体上最好的芬太尼教育家，他不害怕呼吁执法部门和立法者散播芬太尼神话。
3、Alphonzo“Phonz”Terrell:：Spill首席执行官，前Twitter员工，负责@twitter。Spill是第一个由前推特员工发起的、势头迅猛的社交媒体项目。Terrell表示，Spill不会成为另一个Twitter，所以看看这些Twitter到底会带来什么将会很有趣。
五、值得关注的公司
1、Post News：在试图取代Twitter成为主流社交媒体巨头的过程中，Post News为媒体提供了一个有趣的模式。它旨在改变新闻消费，允许读者付费阅读每篇文章，而不是订阅出版物。它的成功取决于媒体出版商的选择和用户的购买，但它可能为媒体的财务困境提供一个解决方案。
2、Reddit：自从Twitter成为Elon Musk的公司后，我就一直在等Reddit做点什么。在所有主流社交媒体平台中，Reddit与Twitter最为相似。它也已经拥有大量紧密联系的社区，并且能够轻松创建新的社区，这对于#科学Twitter和#心理健康Twitter等Twitter社区来说是很有价值的。吸引Twitter用户可能需要允许用户在reddit子版块之外发布更新。
六、一个高风险的赌注
Jack Dorsey对Twitter上发生的事情感到非常内疚，以至于他说服Elon Musk让他第三次经营Twitter。Musk会同意的，因为他和多西是好朋友，而且他找不到其他人想要CEO的职位。然而，他们几乎会立即发生冲突，导致Musk(再次)将Dorsey从Twitter解雇。
原文：
Jody Serrano covers online communities for Gizmodo. Since Elon Musk decided to buy Twitter earlier this year, it seems she has been cursed (blessed?) to write about Twitter or Musk daily. She has covered medical misinformation on social media extensively on topics ranging from herbal abortions to antidepressants.
The top story:
2022 was the year of Twitter and Elon Musk: the shit show that keeps on giving. While we will continue to watch the destruction of old, Pre-Musk Twitter in 2023, it will create the first real opening for a new social media platform in years.
That doesn’t mean that Twitter will die anytime soon, but there are a lot of people who don’t like what the blue bird app has turned into. Those folks are looking for a new social media platform that will give them a microblogging experience similar to, or better than, what Old Twitter provided.
There are already competitors: Since Musk took over Twitter in late October, Mastodon’s user base has surged from 300,000 monthly active users to 2.5 million. Hive was mentioned as a promising early contender but shut down briefly after facing security issues. There’s also Post News, founded by Noam Bardin, the former CEO of Waze. And former Twitter employees are behind Spill, a “next gen social platform that puts culture first,” set to launch in late January.
What we’re waiting for:
- A Twitter clone from Meta: It’s unbelievable that Meta, the king of copycats, hasn’t seized on the implosion over at Twitter to debut its own clone. It certainly has the money, experience, and brainpower to do so. While choosing between a company run by Mark Zuckerberg and one run by Elon Musk is the equivalent of choosing what level of hell you want to live on, I choose Zuck over Musk any day. At least there are still content guidelines, moderation teams, and PR people over there.
- More state bans of TikTok: Currently, more than a dozen U.S. states ban the use of TikTok on government devices. Congress has banned TikTok from devices operated by the executive branch, which includes federal agencies. After the ban was passed, the House of Representatives proceeded to ban TikTok on official devices used by members and staff. The growing anti-TikTok sentiment is likely to lead to bans in more states in an effort to pressure ByteDance, TikTok’s Chinese parent company, to divest TikTok’s U.S. operations. Considering the icy relations between the U.S. and China, both are unlikely to back down from this face off.
- Parler will shut down: Kanye West’s professed intention to buy right-wing social media app Parler after he was restricted from Instagram and Twitter was probably the biggest push Parler received all year. After West, legally known as Ye, backed out of the deal, it’s hard to see what remains that makes Parler worth keeping around.
Unconventional wisdom:
Elon Musk’s transformation from renowned innovator into Twitter despot has turned him into the most unliked person in tech. Musk’s name is turning into a liability. Tesla shares have lost about 60% of their value this year, Neuralink is under federal investigation for potential animal abuse, and Twitter is a hot mess.
All the fury and talk around Musk has meant that Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg has seen his sins drowned out by The Elon Musk Show. Musk laid off about 4,000 people at Twitter (excluding contractors), made fun of those he laid off, and even refused to pay Twitter’s former executive team. Zuckerberg, meanwhile, laid off 11,000 employees, but took responsibility for what had gone wrong and provided generous severance packages, including 16 weeks of paid leave, six months of health insurance, and immigration support. He thanked those who were laid off for their service and said Meta would not be where it was today without their hard work.
In 2023, Mark Zuckerberg will rebuild his image and build goodwill for his companies. Facebook’s user growth will continue to slow, but not decline. Zuck has an opportunity here to make good on his past apologies and promises to do things differently: Whether he stops tinkering with the metaverse long enough to do so is real question.
People to follow:
- Jonathan Greenblatt: CEO of the Anti-Defamation League. Greenblatt has been an outspoken critic of hate speech, misinformation, and anti-Semitism on social media. It will be interesting to see what he thinks of any of the new social media platforms vying for Twitter’s old users.
- Dr. Ryan Marino: Toxicologist and expert on fentanyl. 2022 was the year when fentanyl went viral, which means that a whole lot of misinformation about fentanyl started making the rounds. Marino is arguably the best fentanyl educator on social media and isn’t afraid to call out law enforcement and lawmakers spewing fentanyl myths.
- Alphonzo “Phonz” Terrell: CEO of Spill and former Twitter employee in charge of the @twitter handle. Spill is the first social media project spearheaded by former Twitter employees that has gained steam. Terrell has stated that Spill will not be another Twitter, so it’ll be interesting to see what exactly these tweeps come up with.
Companies to watch:
- Post News: As it tries to take Twitter’s place among mainstream social media giants, Post News presents an interesting model for media. It aims to change news consumption and allow readers to pay to read per article instead of subscribing to the publication. Its success depends on media publishers opting in and users buying in, but could present a solution to media’s financial woes.
- Reddit: Ever since Twitter became an Elon Musk company, I’ve been waiting for Reddit to do… something. Out of all the mainstream social media platforms, Reddit is the most similar to Twitter. It also already has tons of close-knit communities and the ability to easily create new ones, something that’s valuable to Twitter communities like #ScienceTwitter and #MentalHealthTwitter, among many others. Attracting Twitter’s crowd could involve allowing users to post updates outside of subreddits.
A longshot bet:
Jack Dorsey becomes so consumed by guilt over what’s happening to Twitter that he convinces Elon Musk to let him run Twitter—for the third time. Musk will agree since he and Dorsey are buddies and because he can’t find anyone else who wants the CEO job. However, they will clash almost immediately, leading Musk to fire Dorsey from Twitter (again).
本文由数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）翻译而成，作者：Jody Serrano；翻译：数字化转型网郑亚茹；翻译审核：数字化转型网默然。
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