在半年前的一篇氪记中，有23位投资人曾向「暗涌Waves」做出未来预言，比如：市场的癫狂不会重现；一级市场的人民币化将加剧；政策会成为投资中的首要因素，等等。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
事后来看，这些判断几乎百发百中。这可能也是如今一级市场的一个特征：变化逐渐匀速了。
但有一点变化还是更突出：姑且称之为“科技革命”吧。过去半年，中国一级市场大有一种“非科技、不投资”的味道。即便是狭义上的科技投资，依然还不够狭义。这在我们这次氪记的约访中感受强烈：几乎90%的机构主动提出，希望可以只谈“新能源”。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
某种程度上，“科技”是个伪概念：我们生活的世界，哪里会全然不包含科技元素呢？但驱动世界前进的，往往正是情绪——一级市场的“科技化”，何尝不是一种情绪。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
「暗涌Waves」决定取个中间值：在所谓的“科技投资”中，我们选择了新能源、芯片、生物科技、AI和商业航天这五个领域来讨论。因为它们在2023的变化可能会更显见，也因为我们认为它们更能体现科技投资的诸多特性：比如芯片投资中的“双重逻辑”、上游能源投资中的技术路线之争；AI和商业航天中的“几无共识”，以及上述每一个领域都存在的去财务化和强产业化投资特征等。
通过这篇文章，我们希望和读者们一起思考：究竟“科技”是何物，科技投资的特征，以及钱流向了哪里。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
很荣幸，在本次主要针对投资人的群访中，我们重访了许多老朋友，也增加了一些新面孔。在不同以往的未来投资生涯里，“但愿你的道路漫长，充满奇迹，充满发现”。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
感谢答疑解惑的29位投资人：耀途资本创始合伙人白宗义、蓝驰创投管理合伙人陈维广、松禾资本合伙人冯华、云岫资本合伙人符志龙、尚颀资本董事总经理黄香远、高鹄资本管理合伙人金明、真成投资创始合伙人李剑威、鼎晖投资创新成长投资高级合伙人柳丹、五源资本合伙人刘凯、中科创星创始合伙人米磊、峰瑞资本合伙人马睿、创新工场前沿科技基金总经理任博冰、川流投资管理合伙人时雪松、经纬创投合伙人王华东、达晨财智合伙人王文荣、源码资本合伙人王星石、山行资本创始合伙人徐诗、高榕资本合伙人杨昆、红杉中国合伙人杨云霞、IDG资本合伙人俞信华、经纬创投合伙人喻志云、线性资本合伙人曾颖哲、华映资本管理合伙人章高男、绿洲资本创始合伙人张津剑、丰年资本合伙人赵丰、险峰长青合伙人赵阳、云岫资本合伙人赵占祥、创世伙伴CCV创始合伙人周炜，以及启明创投合伙人周志峰。（按姓氏拼音顺序排列）
一、能源革命数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
警惕新能源投资的“美好陷阱”
如果本届“氪记”只保留一个行业方向，答案无疑是：新能源。
“双碳”本质上是一场可再生能源资源（光、硅、氢等）取代碳基能源(煤、油、气等)的革命。它主要改造的是人类利用能源的4个环节：生产、运输，存储以及应用。
据IT桔子统计，中国一级市场的新能源板块在2022年共计发生285起投融资事件，其中超过20家公司成为独角兽企业，主要领域包含动力电池、新能源汽车、储能等。由已披露金额的融资事件测算，新能源领域一级市场平均单笔融资金额达3.78亿元。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
在投资人们看来，由于新能源行业足够大，其中每一个环节都足以产生大公司。IDG资本俞信华表示，“10年以后再看太阳能领域可能是1000~1200GW的年装机，相比现在可能是5倍的市场空间。电动汽车也同样，当市场渗透率达到80%~90%，将会是一个怎样量级的市场？”在这个过程中，很多原本看起来很小的细分领域，都有可能是几百亿的市场。一级市场的资金流向新能源产业中越来越细分的赛道，也印证这一趋势。
中国制造则是新能源行业的另一个确定性来源。“新能源本身就是制造业。”这是多位投资人向我们表达的共同观点。对于坐拥全球38%制造能力的中国来说，只要突破一个细分赛道的核心技术，就能和自身的大规模制造能力结合，从成本和规模上碾压对手。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
源码资本王星石有一个补充观点是，新能源赛道，把自然资源属性严重的传统能源行业，变成制造业属性为主的行业，也就不可避免要受到“产能周期、库存周期以及下游经济周期的影响”。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
险峰长青赵阳用半导体行业来做对比：50年前硅谷定义了全球半导体产业链的地区分布和核心专利等，所以该领域存在长期的“卡脖子”问题。但新能源并非如此，“我国无论在氢能储能，还是在汽车下游应用都有比较完善的自主知识产权，而且很多技术走在世界前列”。
CCV周炜认为，今天的新能源行业相比15~20年前，最大的差别在于，技术达到了可以独立成熟商业化的程度，“光伏的转换效率低、生产工艺不够完善的时候，它在生命周期中产生能量的正面效应，和生产及后续过程中产生的排放并不匹配，运营成本不合算。但现在即便不依赖补贴，已经是可以产生正面经济效益的产品，所以能自然地发展成熟。”
线性资本曾颖哲同样认为ROI是行业核心，例如峰谷电价差异的拉大，直接提升了储能的经济效益，从而带来了储能行业的拐点。
就2023年而言，中科创星米磊认为，随着产能扩张，新能源产业上游的原料荒等紧张环节会有所缓解。而产业下游的新能源汽车市占率已经相对较高，绝对增长速度会有所减缓，对应的资本市场表现会比过去一年更加平稳。
也有一些略有不同的观点。比如五源资本刘凯认为，相比半导体的库存消化基本结束，“新能源尤其动力电池等板块，或处在产能过剩的时间点，尤其2023可能是个高点，2024年会好转”。松禾资本冯华则表示，“2023年新能源产业链的热度可能还会持续，并且刚需依然存在”。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
值得警惕的是：一家好公司、一个好行业，并不等同于一笔好投资。
这是一个与能源投资如影随形的问题：回报周期与风险资本不相适配。一年前，我们采访多位能源领域的资深投资人时，几乎众人皆提这一点。如今尽管行业和资本环境都与此前不可同日而语，但这个问题依然继续存在。
“新能源投资一直都不是遍地是机会的状态，从上一个周期开始，其中有很多投资就属于基础设施型。”周炜表示，以VC相对有限的射程来说，新能源中一些细分领域所需资金量超过了VC的供应能力。例如锂电池领域的企业，每家从一开始可能就百亿估值，早期机构投入巨大却不能换来足够的话语权。而VC其实更应该是“用小的投入撬动大的创新”。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
部分新能源投资或许更适合PE和国家队资本。山行资本徐诗也指出了这一点，她强调，当下的确处于新旧周期的交替期，新能源也必定是未来持续的投资主题，“但其中有一些具体的领域其实不太适合VC，尤其重资产投入的，资本效率对于VC并不高”。
新能源车增速见顶，创投目光向行业上游迁移
多数行业从静态向动态的跃迁，往往源于下游链条的倒逼。新能源行业的这一特征极其明显。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
可以说，新能源汽车是拉开过去两年新能源革命序幕的导火索，因而也是能源板块中最不可忽视的部分。在2022年，新能源造车领域中有30多个品牌在一级市场完成融资。其中广汽埃安A轮183亿元融资，刷新了国内新能源整车行业最大单笔私募融资纪录。
投资人普遍认为，新能源造车已经进入下半场。乘联会数据也显示，去年底国内新能源乘用车的零售渗透率已超3成，其中国产自主品牌的渗透率更已过半。
IDG资本俞信华表示，电动化、网联化和智能化是未来出行发展的核心方向。目前基本实现的是第一步即：电动化代替燃油汽车。“但这只是一部分，出行的发展更重要的是智能化，真正的未来汽车会是一个‘移动的智能终端’。”
经纬创投王华东进一步阐释了汽车智能化的关键节点。他认为，电气化为智能化提供基础，智能化是未来汽车产业的竞争核心。电子电气架构是智能化的基础，核心构成是汽车半导体。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
高鹄资本金明认为，中国新能源汽车产业的全球地位和手机行业很像。“除特斯拉，其他海外厂商与中国头部整车厂商相比都有不少差距。”产品力全球领先，但国际关系的挑战成为制约海外扩张的重要因素。
尚颀资本黄香远告诉我们，今年新能源汽车销量较2022年的增幅预期较低，“事实上经过两年的大幅增长之后，行业已经进入相对成熟的阶段，只是相比其他行业仍然是大比例增长”。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
五源资本刘凯也指出，2023年以新能源汽车为代表的新能源产业下游正在洗牌，价格竞争是其表现之一。松禾资本冯华同样认为，新能源汽车的两极分化将加速，“头部车厂强者更强”，对价格升降的弹性更大，“但是小厂的产业链是不是能顶住亏损，正是拼实力的地方，整个市场最终可能不会剩太多家厂商”。华映资本章高男表示，新一年在新能源车赛道中会将关注重点放在增量式供应链上。
简单概括即，单纯对新能源乘用车整车厂商的风险投资已成强弩之末，市场规模大而成熟、标的贵，和一级市场的错配进一步加大。创业者和投资人的重心向新能源商用车、车供应链以及新能源行业上游迁移。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
上游能源前途光明，道路崎岖
2022年，对于一级市场来说，新能源赛道的动力电池、储能，氢能等都是关键主题词。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
一方面，新能源整车产能提升加速了上游动力电池产业投资热，其中纯电动乘用车为动力电池装机量的主要贡献力量。一级市场资金更多流向细分环节，市场从投资电池厂商，到投其中的正负极材料、电解液等主辅材，再到投动力电池外壳上的铝塑膜以及电池回收。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
另一方面，在风电、光伏装机量持续增长与5G基站建设加快的背景下，储能电池需求快速增长。据不完全统计，2022年以来，公布IPO进度的储能产业链企业共有120多家，此外国内百余家企业有融资动态，合计融资金额超千亿元。资本聚集也带来企业数量暴增，2022年新成立的储能相关企业数量已近3万家。
“随着全球绿色转型趋势确定，以锂电为代表的新能源交通和以光伏、风电为代表的新能源电力逐步开始对于传统能源的存量替代，新能源从替补能源走向主力能源。”经纬创投认为，近几年伴随着电动化、智能化的普及，以及双碳政策和光伏、风电等平价上网，俄乌战争造成用电成本骤增等，动力电池和储能电池的需求都出现爆发。其中，电芯厂的扩产、电池主材辅材都有巨大的发展机会。
“储能赛道的增速是所有新能源行业里面最快的。”中科创星米磊表示，储能的三种方式中，适合VC投资的主要是发电侧的物理储能中的空气压缩储能（水电站不适合技术投资）、运输侧的化学储能中的氢储能，以及用户侧的电化学储能即电池储能。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
此外，未来的储能将进一步向“全时域的储能”进发，“长时储能”或成为下一个突破口。线性资本曾颖哲认为，大家现在看的更多的是电化学储能，但对于整个社会的新型电力系统来说，一定要有秒、小时、天、月，甚至是以年为单位的储能。例如小时级电池可以应用于乘用电动车等交通工具，而重型交通、航空航天、冶金工业的功能等则需以天以上为单位。“分秒级的调频技术目前已相对成熟，移动储能技术也基本能够满足要求，拉长线来看，长时储能当前存在缺口”。
技术实现方式上，多数投资人认为没有one for all的解决方案。液态、固态/半固态，以及钠电池、氢能电池等路线会并存。险峰长青赵阳对「暗涌Waves」表示，“从过去十年来看，除工业外，新能源领域最大的应用是电动汽车，因为锂电池技术的快速进展、成本降低、供应链完备，足以支撑电动汽车飞速发展”。与此同时，除锂电外，“大家也讨论很多新能源替代类别，比如钠电池、氢气燃料电池等，各种储能技术在快速迭代”。
其中，氢能在顶层政策上的利好，直接推动氢能投资成为一级市场热门赛道。2022年国家部委共计发布50余条相关政策，各地配套政策超过300条。尤其是氢燃料电池汽车，将成为继纯电车型和插电车型之后下一个大力补贴对象。
“氢能产业链还属于比较早期的阶段，很像十年前锂电的状态，非常适合进行早期投资。”赵阳表示，氢能同时还具有天然优势：能量密度高、自然界中储量大、成本低等，氢能在后期的平均成本非常有可能低于汽油。氢是目前新能源里最好的几条技术路径之一，氢能不但可以替代传统工业中的高碳排能源，也能够作为储能手段平抑风光带来的波动性，和锂电池形成鲜明互补。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
尚颀资本黄香远同样对氢能的未来发展前景比较乐观。细分领域上，当前在关注离子交换膜、靶材包括加氢供电制氢的一些设备材料。应用场景上，商用车和重卡场景是优先落脚点。加氢站等基础配套设施的建设速度是重要制约因素之一。
当然，正如创投历史上的任何一次“风口效应”，也有投资人认为氢能赛道虚火过旺，行业不成熟，可能很长时间都无法规模化、可持续应用。这一点从马斯克多次在社交平台公开表达对氢和氢燃料电池的质疑、多家氢能IPO终止上市中可见一斑。
云岫资本符志龙表示，上游材料学的很多技术壁垒也是困境之一。像氢能电堆的上游原材料膜电极、光伏HJT电池的上游原材料低温银浆，核心材料配方都还掌握在欧美、日本企业手中，这都限制了产业的跨越式发展。氢能路径的实际应用和企业造血功能还有待更长时间的检验。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
另外还值得一提的是可控核聚变。多位投资人看来，核聚变或是能源的终极解决方案，中科创星米磊认为其“就像20年前的电动车，未来影响随着时间推移逐步加大”。但这样具有“科幻”气质的赛道，投资人现阶段普遍处于观望状态。
可控核聚变从“点火成功”到“具备实际应用价值”，还有咫尺天涯的距离。至少当前技术条件下，要能够实现“输出能量>输入能量”的商用门槛，仍需要突破极其多关卡。借用一句全球通用的戏称：可控核聚变距离商用永远还有50年。
二、芯片
未来两年继续承压
在度过狂飙突进的两年之后，2022年的半导体投资开始走出超级周期，进入深水区。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
“一年涨几倍的疯狂没有了，翻一倍的都少。”云岫资本赵占祥对我们表示。过去两年，这家FA曾服务过摩尔线程、爱芯元智、英韧科技等在内的诸多大型芯片案例。
桔子科技的数据显示，截止到2022年11月22日，中国一级市场芯片半导体行业共计发生3587起投融资事件，融资总规模达6964.14亿元。相比2021年，融资数量和总额出现了双降。
尽管这一年完成的规模超10亿的半导体融资，分落在CPU/GPU、汽车芯片、半导体设备/材料等细分领域，但还是能明显感觉到，以往备受追捧的芯片设计环节在2022年遇冷。达晨财智王文荣认为，整个芯片设计领域水上项目越来越少，很多人开始往上游的设备和材料走，而设备类创业公司的发展格局也已初现。丰年资本赵丰表示，2022年他们主动放缓了出手节奏，并认为2023和2024仍会是“承压之年”。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
遇冷首先来自于供需关系的调整。中国芯片企业中多数企业以生产电子消费类芯片为主，受2022年智能手机等消费电子产品出货量大幅下滑影响，芯片需求随之骤减。事实上，前几年因为供需不平衡，一些领域的芯片迅速由短缺变为饱和。多家机构指出，2023年的上半年，芯片领域还会持续消化既往库存，下半年才到一个合理水位。
其次是高额的估值。2022年，粤芯半导体和先导薄膜均以45亿元的融资规模并列2022年半导体一级市场投融资榜榜首。赵占祥说，因为估值过高，从2021年开始，半导体领域就开始出现很多PE投VC、VC投天使的现象。他预测，这种现象在今年也会持续，但也有一些PE被市场教育后，会“各归其位”。
今年将是碳化硅的关键年份
作为兼具战略性和市场性的大宗战略产品，芯片既关乎信息安全、国家安全，又要通过市场交易来体现，这使得它的投资更强烈地体现着微妙的双面性：确定的需求来自对国产替代以及自主自控的理解，更具商业想象空间的则来自市场。
2023年芯片、半导体的投资机会依然是这两种路线的演进。可以归属到前一种逻辑的，包括王文荣看好的“军工电子”、“半导体的核心零部件，包括一些耗材”以及赵占祥看好的信创方向。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
军工是近年来非常景气的板块。而落实到军工电子中的芯片，王文荣认为，“尽管市场天花板不是特别高，但收入确定性高且毛利不错，板块概念较好”。他投的做相控阵T/R芯片类的铖昌科技，2022上市后的市值已超百亿。
在赵占祥看来，“涉及到国计民生的关键行业，未来都要采用国产的芯片硬件设备和软件操作系统”，所以“后面信创会是一个长期机会”。2022年下半年，信创概念已经明显成为一条二级市场主线。
高鹄资本金明认为，2023年，在硅基半导体先进制程领域，线宽微缩化和结构3D化的趋势催生了成倍的镀膜设备需求，镀膜设备具备较强国产替代空间。此外，则会看好围绕着光刻机的关键材料、零部件以及化合物半导体产业链。华映资本章高男认为，在新能源车、光伏、5G等多个第三代半导体下游的应用领域中，中国都是全球单一最大的市场”，国产替代空间可观。
归属到第二种逻辑的，是继消费电子、工业来帮芯片、半导体完成大叙事的另一个终端：汽车。在2023年，赵占祥看好的方向就包括：智能汽车的供应链，主要包括自动驾驶和一些预控制器以及碳化硅产业链。
中科创星米磊表示，2022年，在消费芯片遇冷的同时，汽车芯片开始上涨。“汽车新能源化后是智能化，所以会有大量的功率芯片和光芯片用到车上”，而现在对“igbt、碳化硅等功率芯片”的带动就非常快。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
作为第三代化合物半导体材料，碳化硅凭借耐高压、耐高温、低损耗等性能，在新能源汽车、光伏发电、轨道交通、智能电网等领域具有鲜明优势。而在当下，则是“设计、衬底、设备等产业链各环节都很缺货”，在赵占祥看来，2023年如果“主流企业拿到融资，启动扩产”，“后面的玩家竞争难度就大了”。在他看来，今年将是碳化硅行业的是关键一年。
松禾资本冯华也认为，“碳化硅的确是很大的机会”，但材料的整合创新通常是动辙十年的长周期，因此要有充分的耐心和风险评估。
因为新能源车未来3~5年内市场占比都被预期提升，加之前几年芯片的紧缺事件，都给国产芯片带来上车机会，而车载计算芯片、功率半导体和传感器芯片为代表的汽车半导体，以及自动驾驶、智能座舱、智能底盘等，也开始成为半导体行业的投融资风口。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
在赵占祥看来，“为了避免未来的供应链安全问题”，新能源车的“一些关键的零部件还是会培养国内的头部厂商”。
丰年资本赵丰同样认为，下一阶段机会肯定是往基础层，深水区挖，比如所涉及的设备、材料、仪器、软件等底层技术。而在王文荣看来，车用芯片固然有较高的技术门槛和壁垒，也是个大故事赛道，但周期比较长，在前几年的资本环境下，也涌现了较多的创业公司，估值高企，竞争也变得激烈，而最终只会有数家跑出来，花落谁家还有待观察。
耀途资本白宗义也认为，如果现在才布局汽车智能化产业链，投资决策会相对困难。因为围绕感知，决策，执行等相关领域，“包括激光雷达，4D毫米波成像雷达，ADAS SOC，座舱SOC，L3-L4无人驾驶决策算法，车规级MCU等”领域，均已出现相对头部的公司。尽管这些公司离商业化还需要时间，但“融资的资金规模，商业化认证的导入”都已形成了一定的竞争壁垒。
三、生物科技数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
生命科学：春天要回来了，但是与之前不一样的春天
在经历2020年投资的暴热，2021年下半年的急转直下，2022年的生物科技行业依然徘徊在冰点。
根据易凯资本的统计，2022年中国医疗健康领域投资事件共2012起，披露的投资总金额为1798.3亿元——后者数值在2021年为3292.5亿元，同比下降了45.4%。
尤其对于创新药来说，无疑是“幻灭”的一年。不过在被迫蜕变的阵痛之下，创新药领域也在发生一些可喜变化。
鼎晖投资柳丹观察到，企业开始从单纯的研发式创新转向从“以终为始”的临床角度，更关注一个差异化的产品最终能带来多少市场应用价值。在经纬创投喻志云看来，创新药行业会从现在的Biotech（处于研发，大家不太看收入）阶段，进入Pharma的时代，要实现商业化给股东创造大量的利润。
多位投资人一致认为，2023年创新药会在一二级市场回暖。“因为行业和市场仍然需要真正的创新。”高榕资本杨昆表示，“通过全球的新冠疫情防控，无论疫苗还是创新药物，大家也看到了科技创新的速度和力量。”不过，与上一波资本市场带来的红利不同，“这一次的投资转暖可能会更重视由新技术新供给驱动的新产品研发。”峰瑞资本马睿告诉我们。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
除了创新药，哪些细分领域更具投资机会？
柳丹认为，因技术路线的突破演进（比如载体递送技术打破瓶颈），细胞/基因治疗领域逐渐走向深水区。他定义关键词为new modality（新模态），即区隔于大分子、小分子，是技术路径的重要变革。
杨昆表示，高榕继续关注早期的、真正有国际化创新力的标的，包括突破性的医疗器械，有实际临床需求的药物分子或平台技术，以及生命科学在合成生物学、农业科技等领域的应用。
经纬创投则提到，除了持续在生物医药/器械诊断领域等产品侧投资全球创新的技术平台，同时注重医疗与其他行业交叉学科的机会，在产业链上游前瞻性布局生命科学工具和合成生物学。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
交叉前沿科学，是今年投资人提及尤其多的词汇。在马睿看来，神经科学的发展也迎来转折点。未来10年，将是研发针对中枢神经系统疾病的创新药和创新疗法的黄金时期。
经纬喻志云提到的一个信号是，2023年1月，Biogen/Eisai的阿尔兹海默新药Lecanemab终于被FDA批准。他们的上一代阿尔兹海默药虽然获批，但是充满巨大争议，而Lecanemab的获批被业内公认为里程碑式事件。
长期以来，极难攻克的脑科学是生命科学研究的一个“圣杯”，其中脑机接口是近两年最火的领域。自1924年德国精神科医师汉斯·伯格第一次在人类大脑里采集到脑电信号至今，脑机接口已是“百年工程”。不过随着AI发展，电极材料、信息采集能力等技术的突破，脑机接口技术开始从实验室照进现实。
柳丹用“破冰式应用探索”定义脑机接口在中国所处的阶段。过去只有无创式脑机接口公司，其应用场景相对成熟，现在开始往严肃科学应用的技术路径走，即侵入式脑机接口。马斯克创立的Neuralink即是后者的典型。
红杉中国目前在脑科学赛道投资频次很高。在红杉中国杨云霞看来，脑机接口已经有非常清晰的应用场景，例如脑深部电刺激（DBS），也就是俗称的脑起搏器。“现在增长比较快的应用领域，其实还是在人类对于大脑进行解码的领域，我们期待未来有一天人类可以绘制出‘大脑图谱’。”杨云霞说。
整体而言，2022年生物科技投资趋于冷静，几乎所有细分领域中，投早、投小的趋势依然明显。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
合成生物：还将继续低迷，投资人不再为概念买单
生命健康产业的一个分支领域是：在产业端“不温不火”，概念却炙手可热的合成生物学。它本质是一项底层技术，一种新的生产方式。应用领域也非常广泛，包括化工产品、食品原料、环境处理、生物能源、药物中间体等等。
2018年以来，中国的合成生物学迎来了新一波融资高潮，2022年国内合成生物公司至少官宣了43笔融资，不乏一年两轮融资者。
但36氪曾统计，这一目前全球市场规模还不到千亿元的产业，2022全年融资额不足百亿元，超四成融资额更是由头部4家公司创造，其“一九格局”十分明显。
限制合成生物发展的核心原因或在其成本。绿洲资本张津剑表示，“成本是一个非常重要的要素”。川流投资时雪松则表示，受到成本和技术的局限，现在的合成生物学的商业应用还比较狭窄，主要在一些高附加值产品和化学难以合成的领域具有优势，“从发展阶段来看，合成生物学也就相当于2000年互联网的阶段，到达预期中的广泛应用，可能还需要期待技术进步。”数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
多位投资人向我们表达：合成生物产业目前仍处于早期阶段，大多公司尚未进入产业化的关键阶段。不过在比如大宗新材料领域，一级市场的企业已经到了跑通商业闭环的关键点。
合成生物未来如何？合成生物的中下游公司或变成投资人的“主战场”，鼎晖柳丹说，“之前的投资主要集中在中下游公司，下游离变现最快，中游看研发能力。”
尽管合成生物当下比较低迷，但仍有很多投资人认可它的商业价值和长远利益。
柳丹认为，合成生物技术快速走向成熟，商业化应用场景显现。“我们持续看好通过高效改造细胞通路，在新药研发、细胞工程和高端生物制造领域广阔的应用前景。”经纬创投喻志云如是说。
峰瑞资本马睿则认为，合成生物公司要想能够盈利和可持续地盈利，要走的路很长，也很艰难。但是无论如何，超过1/3的分子世界重构，这背后的无限可能是令人激动的。毕竟哪个国家主要控制了原材料、分子、大宗商品和制造业，就能控制通货膨胀、利率和金融。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
四、人工智能
投资人分歧较多，突破商业化是唯一共识
10年来，AI的投资浪潮几经起伏，但始终因为商业化难题迟迟难以落地。2022年，因为更为青睐强商业化能力的人民币基金转强，AI在中国市场进一步遇冷也并不意外。
有数据显示，截止到2022年11月10日，今年中国人工智能行业赛道在一级市场的融资事件数有400起，同比下降50%；融资交易额估算有770.4亿元，同比下降61%。
但大洋彼岸还是开出了奇异的花朵。2022年末，基于Transformer算法不断放大而诞生的ChatGPT一周内覆盖百万级C端用户，为AI生成文字提供新的叙事空间。
AIGC，即人工智能生成内容，按照模态区分，可以分为音频生成、文本生成、图像生成、视频生成等细分领域，以及文字生成图片、文字生成视频等跨模态生成。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
2022年被认为是AIGC元年。「暗涌Waves」曾就ChatGPT访谈过多位投资人，有一种观点认为AIGC或许会成为平台级的赛道。
ChatGPT的诞生在某种程度上让国内投资人对AI领域投To B的策略产生动摇。ChatGPT不直接面向开发者，而是先面向To C场景，让开发者看到C端对产品的热情后，会有更多人基于此创业。蓝驰创投陈维广认为，目前AI创业的第一天就要想到与商业模式的结合，不应该在流量规模化后再思考。
但To C场景的商业化新思路仍存在问题。这也是CCV周炜密集看了AIGC项目却最终没有出手的原因：第一，所有AI公司除了OpenAI，还没有大实验室，所有产品除了ChatGPT，还感受不到差异化。第二，付费用户不清晰，付费意愿不明朗，付费方式不明确。而他认为AIGC如果是To B的话，要抓住产业的最大痛点，一定要产生爆炸性的突破瓶颈的倍增效应，对方的付费意愿才会强。
关于AIGC领域的投资，更多人认为infra侧会有更多机会，或许也是短期内商业回报最大的层级。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
在周炜看来，应用层太难与大厂争夺流量，底层技术是差异化的源头，因此“大模型”这一基础设施成为多数投资人口中的重点方向。
但大模型也有“路线之争”：比如人们对未来究竟是出现通用大模型，还是每个领域有各自的基础模型仍旧争论不休。在五源刘凯看来，AI发展阶段的“大模型之争”其实可以类比云的发展。后者因早期前置成本过高，因此会由做公有云的公司统一运维，而这无疑与有需求的小公司完美匹配。但瓶颈在于当客户公司体量达到一定程度，自建私有云则更合算一点。不过对于AI当前处于的早期阶段而言，刘凯预测未来几年AI仍会使用统一大模型。
不过，创新工场任博冰也表示，目前中国与大模型相关的基础设施公司标的依旧很少，且大部分应用公司生态与美国有一定的差距。
大模型的另一个问题在于成本。去年融资10亿美元的OpenAI是大模型的主要贡献者，其训练的大模型GPT-3系列，数据庞杂，整个英文维基百科只占它训练数据的0.6%，因此成本居高不下，而普遍认为2023年即将问世的GPT-4则可能将成本提高到上亿美元。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
降低cost成为infra侧的重要投资方向，刘凯表示五源在2022年布局了一些infra中偏平台协作型、工具型企业，共同目标都是将cost降下来，以及降低使用门槛。
对人工智能投资而言，找到垂直应用场景也是非常重要的。耀途资本白宗义告诉我们：AI是新型生产力，需要从完整产业链视角看待行业发展机遇，在数据的感知、传输、存储、计算、data/AI infra等AI基础设施，机器人、智能驾驶、企业级服务SaaS、以及新能源、消费电子产业链等高端制造业数字化、智能化转型等垂直行业应用视角都存在系统性投资机会。基础设施领域则更强调创业团队的技术壁垒以及高度人事匹配，以及其在AI+垂直行业应用领域的knowhow、产品化、市场推广及交付能力。
访谈中，许多投资人都提及AI只是一种中间件。陈维广也认为，不能孤立去看AI一个领域，他更相信AI + Web3 + 3D交互的“三浪叠加”将定义下一个大的科技周期。
另一个高频词汇则是“平民化时代”的到来。绿洲资本张津剑认为，AIGC在2023年将更多进入到生活场景中去，这是落地和渗透的一年，但我们理解中更加通用的人工智能（如无人驾驶），更可能出现在2025~2027年。
启明创投周志峰则认为大模型提供的泛化能力，核心意义在于让所有人都可以直接使用大模型，让AI能力更有效地落地到各个场景中去。大模型就像集中化的搭好了底层的“水电煤”等基础设施，创业者或企业可以直接取用能源，而自己只需关注细分场景的终端应用部署，而不再是AI从前的高研发难度的垂直“烟囱式”创业范式。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
关于人工智能的一个行业共识是，尽管从2012年神经网络诞生开始到如今，这一波人工智能的浪潮已走过10年，但仍旧处于早期阶段，在所有行业应用中AI技术的渗透率只有不到30%，且更多用于较浅层的商业节点。
启明创投在2022年依然是人工智能领域最为活跃的投资机构之一。在周志峰看来，人工智能依旧是最让他兴奋的投资板块之一，因为大模型+微调的新技术范式，作为底层技术和工程上的突破，让创业公司可以通过低成本的调用云服务的方式使用AI技术，不再需要自己从0开始做模型，从而大大降低开发成本，使得它的应用会变得更加迅速、更加有效。因此周志峰认为，人工智能很明确在这个时间点上到一个新台阶，是深度学习技术发展了十多年后的关键拐点。
周炜认为，AI创业者想要在2023年融资顺畅，重点仍是商业化进展，这要求AI技术能帮产业解决卡脖子的关键问题，而不能只是nice to have things。任博冰指出，2023年大家的信心应该更加有底气，原因其一在于AI作为“技术基建”仍在快速迭代，进一步穿透各行各业，同时也更加平民化；其二则在于基于大模型的创造力、理解力和泛化性会进一步提高。他认为2023年会是大模型新技术和AIGC应用继续爆发的一年。
五、商业航天
更多标志性事件出现，奇点时刻即将来临
自2015年中国航天开始鼓励民营企业和资本进入至今，越来越多投资人发现，商业航天是中国企业有机会在全球占据重要一席的硬科技赛道之一。
但弥漫在这一领域上方的更多是“非共识”。「暗涌Waves」调研发现，商业航天目前有三个关键问题等待厘清（或许暂时无法获得答案）：先入轨VS先可回收、固体VS液体、小火箭VS大火箭。
有SpaceX在前，加上降成本的终极目标，火箭要做“可回收”很早就是行业共识。但初创公司究竟是直接研发能成功将卫星送入预定轨道的火箭，还是先试验可回收技术，就分出了两条路线。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
前者的代表是星河动力。1月9日，谷神星一号遥五运载火箭搭载着五颗卫星成功发射，2023年中国商业航天首发告捷。这是星河动力自主研制的商业运载火箭连续第五次完成发射任务，为客户提供19颗商业卫星入轨服务——先自身完成商业闭环，而不是全然依赖外部融资。后者的代表则是深蓝航天。目前连续三次完成火箭十米级、百米级和公里级的液体火箭回收实验。
而在火箭技术上，长期存在着“固液之争”，即到底固体火箭还是液体火箭更适合航天发射：固体火箭历史较久、技术成熟，无需加注、可靠性高，发射周期明显短于液体火箭，但其无法实现回收；液体火箭具有更高的比冲，有更大运力优势，但其所需的发动机复杂得多，需大量研发投入、发射成本高。
航天界有一条世界级“魔咒”：SpaceX之后，民营商业航天公司液体火箭首飞，都以失利告终，包括国内最有可能成功的蓝箭航天。这也意味着，对于难度更高的液体火箭，目前国内没有任何一个商业航天公司能实现正常入轨。
大小火箭之争则源于面向的市场需求不同：成本较低的小型固体运载火箭可以吃下微纳卫星的零散发射；而中大型液体运载火箭为了满足低轨星座组网的需求。由于同一轨道面上的卫星数量增多，动辄需要发射几十吨，火箭运载能力就显得重要。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
多位投资人认为，因政策支持与技术突破，未来两年商业航天将迎来关键赛点。真成投资李剑威判断，“目前能成功入轨的固体火箭已经走向商业化，2024年应该能实现液体可回收火箭的入轨，年底有机会实现回收。”
真成投资从2015年开始研究SpaceX崛起史，此后看了中国几乎所有商业航天公司，但李剑威对于固体火箭始终“持保留意见”。他认为，固体火箭无法实现终极目标——将每公斤的单位入轨成本降低，“固体成本10万元/公斤，液体火箭可能降到六七万，而可回收火箭最本质的改变，是把火箭最有价值的发动机送回之后，可以节省70%的成本、大幅提高毛利。”
上世纪90年代，无数投资人在航天领域亏损严重，比如比尔·盖茨投了很多钱之后大失所望。僵局是被马斯克的SpaceX打破的，他的方式说起来也简单：就是降成本，10倍、100倍的降成本。中国商业航天企业每公斤发射成本超过15000美元，是SpaceXw猎鹰九号发射成本的5倍。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
这意味着，谁先完成液体火箭的入轨+回收，成本结构的改变是碾压式的。而头部商业航天公司的座次也将面临大洗牌：尚未发射成功的企业被一定程度上证伪、消失，投资迅速分化。
李剑威认为，最理想标的是：液体火箭入轨+回收，“大家不要重复做很多型号”。山行资本徐诗认为，商业航天领域的需求侧，目前看到逐步起来的迹象，2014年国务院就出台《关于创新重点领域投融资机制鼓励社会投资的指导意见》，经过8年的发展，目前已形成初步生态，卫星制造、火箭研发生产和发射及地面测控等产业均有一定数量的企业。
李剑威也认为，“未来三年，会是中国商业航天的奇点”。按照目前的研发路线，在2025年之前，大概率国内就会有商业航天企业实现液体火箭的入轨可回收，届时载荷的入轨成本，有机会从现在的6万~10万/公斤下降到2万~3万/公斤，大大降低入轨成本；同时随着回收技术的成熟，火箭发射频率也会上去。而随后能够负担更多载荷的三联装重型可回收火箭也会进入议事日程。
商业航天是最能直观反映科技以及科技投资，将如何改变人类的领域。创业者和投资人们在这里获得的“模糊的正确”和“精确的错误”，也是我们在面对科技革命时的极致体验。这个过程无疑令人兴奋，但它注定漫长。数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
翻译：
In a Krypton article six months ago, 23 investors made predictions about the “Waves” : the market madness would not return; Yuanization of the primary market will intensify; Policy becomes the primary factor in investment, and so on.
In hindsight, these judgments are almost always accurate. This may also be a feature of today’s primary market: change is becoming more uniform.
But one change stands out: call it the “technological revolution.” In the past six months, China’s primary market has had a taste of “no technology, no investment”. Even narrowly defined technology investment is still not narrowly defined. This was strongly felt during our interview with Kryptonite: almost 90 percent of the organizations volunteered that they would like to talk only about “new energy.”数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
In a way, “technology” is a pseudo-concept: Where could we live in a world that doesn’t contain technology at all? But sentiment is often what drives the world forward — and the “technologisation” of the primary market is a sentiment.
“Waves” decided on a middle point: Among the so-called “tech investments,” we chose five areas to discuss: new energy, chips, biotech, AI and commercial aerospace. Because they are likely to be more visible in 2023, and because we think they are more indicative of many of the characteristics of tech investing: the “dual logic” of chip investing, the battle over technology routes in upstream energy investing; There is “little consensus” between AI and commercial aerospace, and the characteristics of de-finalization and strong industrial investment that exist in each of these fields.
In this article, we hope to ask our readers what “technology” really is, the characteristics of technology investment, and where the money is going.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
It is a great honor for us to revisit many old friends and add some new faces in this group visit mainly for investors. “May your path be long, full of wonders, and full of discoveries” in a different future investing career.
Thanks to the 29 investors who answered the question:
Bai Zongyi, founding partner of Yaotu Capital. Chen Weigang, managing partner of Lanchi Venture Capital. Feng Hua, partner of Songhe Capital. Fu Zhilong, managing director of Shang Qi Capital. Huang Xiangyuan, Jin Ming, founding partner of Gao Hu Capital. Li Jianwei, founding partner of Zhencheng Investment. Liu Dan, Senior partner of Innovation and Growth Investment of CDH Investment. Liu Kai, partner of Five Source Capital. Zhongke Chuangxing Founding Union The partners are Mi Lei. Ma Rui, Partner of Fengrui Capital. Ren Bobing, general manager of Innovation Works Frontier Technology Fund. Shi Xuesong, partner of Chuanliu Investment Management, 数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Wang Huadong, Partner of Jingwei Venture Capital. Wang Wenrong, partner of Dachen Financial Wisdom. Wang Xingshi, partner of Source Capital. Xu Shi, founding partner of Shanhang Capital. Yang Kun, partner of Gao Rong Capital. Yang Yunxia, partner of Sequoia China and Yu, partner of IDG Capital Xinhua. Jingwei Partner Yu Zhiyun. Linear Capital Partner Zeng Yingzhe. Huaying Capital Management Partner Zhang Gaonan. Oasis Capital founding Partner Zhang Jinjian. Fengnian Capital partner Zhao Feng. Qiafeng Capital partner Zhao Yang. Yunfeng Capital partner Zhao Zhanxiang. Genesis Partners CCV founding partner Zhou Wei, and Qiming Partners Zhou Zhifeng. (in alphabetical order by surname)
Energy revolution
Beware of the “beauty Trap” of new energy Investment
If this year’s “Krypton” has only one industry direction, the answer is no doubt: new energy.
“Two-carbon” is essentially a revolution in which renewable energy sources (light, silicon, hydrogen, etc.) replace carbon-based energy sources (coal, oil, gas, etc.). It focuses on four aspects of how we use energy: production, transport, storage and application.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
According to IT Orange, 285 investment and financing events occurred in the new energy sector of China’s primary market in 2022. Among which more than 20 companies became unicorns, mainly covering power batteries, new energy vehicles, energy storage and so on. According to the disclosed amount of financing events. The average single financing amount of the primary market in the new energy sector reached 378 million yuan.
In the eyes of investors, the new energy industry is big enough to produce big companies in every segment. Yu Xinhua, director of IDG Capital, said, “In 10 years, the annual installed capacity of the solar energy sector may be 1,000-1,200 GW. Which may be five times the market space compared to now. The same goes for electric vehicles. When the market penetration reaches 80 to 90 percent, what magnitude of market will it be?”. In this process, many segments that originally seemed small may become tens of billions of dollars of market. The flow of funds from the primary market into the increasingly segmented circuit of the new energy industry also confirms this trend.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Made-in-china is another source of certainty for the new energy industry.
Made-in-china is another source of certainty for the new energy industry. “New energy itself is manufacturing.” This is a common view expressed to us by several investors. For China, which has 38 per cent of the global manufacturing capacity. A breakthrough in the core technology of a niche circuit can be combined with its mass manufacturing capabilities to crush rivals in terms of cost and scale.
Source capital Wang Xingshi has a supplementary point of view is that the new energy track. The traditional energy industry with serious natural resources attributes, becomes the industry with manufacturing attributes. It is inevitable to be affected by the “capacity cycle, inventory cycle and the downstream economic cycle”.
Zhao Yang uses the semiconductor industry for comparison:. 50 years ago, Silicon Valley defined the regional distribution of the global semiconductor industry chain and core patents. So there is a long-term “bottleneck” problem in this field. But new energy is not the case. “Our country has perfect independent intellectual property rights both in hydrogen energy storage and in the downstream application of automobiles. And many technologies are ahead of the world.”数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
CCV Zhou Wei believes that compared with 15~20 years ago. The biggest difference between today’s new energy industry is that the technology has reached the degree of independent maturity and commercialization. “When the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic is low and the production process is not perfect. The positive effect of energy generated in the life cycle does not match the emissions generated in the production and subsequent process. And the operation cost is not cost-effective. However. It is now a product that can generate positive economic benefits without relying on subsidies, so it can grow naturally.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Zeng Yingzhe also believes that ROI is the core of the industry.
For example, the widening of the difference between peak-valley electricity prices directly improves the economic benefits of energy storage. Thus bringing the inflection point of the energy storage industry.
In 2023, China Science and Technology Innovation Star Milei believes that with the expansion of production capacity. The raw material shortage and other tensions in the upstream of the new energy industry will be eased. While the market share of new energy vehicles in the downstream of the industry has been relatively high. The absolute growth rate will slow down, and the corresponding capital market performance will be more stable than in the past year.
There are some slightly different views. For example, five source Capital Liu Kai believes that compared with the semiconductor inventory digestion is basically over. “New energy, especially power battery and other sectors, or at the time of overcapacity. Especially 2023 May be a high point, 2024 will be better.” Songhe Capital Feng Hua said, “in 2023, the heat of the new energy industry chain may continue, and just need to still exist.”
One caveat: a good company and a good industry is not the same as a good investment.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
It’s a problem that goes hand in hand with energy investing: the return cycle doesn’t match venture capital. When we interviewed a number of senior investors in the energy sector a year ago, almost everyone mentioned this. The problem persists, despite a different industry and capital environment.
“New energy investment has not been full of opportunities. And since the last cycle, a lot of it has been infrastructure-type.” Zhou Wei said that with the relatively limited range of VC, the amount of capital needed in some segments of new energy exceeds the supply capacity of VC. For example, enterprises in the field of lithium battery, each may be valued at 10 billion yuan from the beginning. And the early institutions invest a lot but can not get enough voice. In fact, VC should be more about “leveraging big innovation with small investment”.
Some of the new energy investment may be more suitable for PE and national team capital. Mountain travel capital Xu Shi also pointed out this point. She stressed that the current is indeed in the alternating period of the new cycle. New energy must be the future continued investment theme, “but there are some specific areas are not suitable for VC. Especially heavy asset investment, capital efficiency for VC is not high”.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
New energy vehicle growth peak, venture capital eyes to the industry upstream migration
Most industries from static to dynamic transition, often from the downstream chain force. This feature of the new energy industry is extremely obvious.
It can be said that new energy vehicles are the fuse that started the new energy revolution in the past two years. So they are also the most important part of the energy sector. In 2022, more than 30 brands in the field of new energy vehicles have completed financing in the primary market. Among them, GAC Aean A round of 18.3 billion yuan financing, refreshing the domestic new energy vehicle industry’s largest single private equity financing record.
Investors generally believe that new energy vehicles have entered the second half. Data from the China Passenger Federation also showed that the retail penetration rate of domestic new-energy passenger vehicles had exceeded 30% by the end of last year. And the penetration rate of domestic self-owned brands was more than half.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Yu Xinhua of IDG Capital said that electrification, networking and intelligence are the core direction of future travel development.
At present, the basic realization is the first step: electric instead of fuel cars. “But this is only part of it. The development of travel is more important to be intelligent. The real future car will be a ‘mobile intelligent terminal’.”
Jingwei Venture Capital Wang Huadong further explained the key node of automobile intelligence. He believes that electrification provides the foundation for intelligence, which is the core of future competition in the automobile industry. Electronic and electrical architecture is the basis of intelligence, and the core component is automotive semiconductor.
Hhcapital believes that the global status of China’s new energy automobile industry is similar to that of the mobile phone industry. “With the exception of Tesla, there is a big gap between other overseas manufacturers and Chinese leading automakers.” Its products lead the world, but the challenge of international relations has become an important factor restricting its overseas expansion.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Huang Xiangyuan, chairman of the company, told us that the growth forecast for new energy vehicle sales this year is lower than that for 2022.
“In fact, after two years of substantial growth, the industry has entered a relatively mature stage. But it is still a large percentage growth compared with other industries,” he said.
Liu Kai of Five Source Capital also pointed out that in 2023. The downstream of the new energy industry represented by new energy vehicles is reshuffling. And price competition is one of its manifestations. Songhe capital Feng Hua also believes that the polarization of new energy vehicles will accelerate, “the head of the car factory stronger”. The elasticity of the price rise and fall is greater, “but the industrial chain of the small factory is not able to withstand losses. It is the fight strength of the place, the market ultimately may not be left too many manufacturers.” Hua Ying Capital Zhang Gaonan said that in the New Year in the new energy car circuit will focus on the incremental supply chain.
In a nutshell, pure venture investment in new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers has become a spent force. The market is large and mature, the target is expensive, and the mismatch with the primary market has been further increased. The focus of entrepreneurs and investors is moving to new energy commercial vehicles. Vehicle supply chains and the upstream of the new energy industry.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Upstream energy has a bright future and a bumpy road ahead
In 2022, for the primary market, power batteries, energy storage and hydrogen energy of the new energy track are all key keywords.
On the one hand, the improvement of new energy vehicle production capacity has accelerated the investment fever in the upstream power battery industry. In which pure electric passenger vehicles are the main contribution to the installed power battery. In the primary market, more funds flow to the segment, from investment in battery manufacturers, to the positive and negative electrode materials, electrolyte and other main and auxiliary materials, to the aluminum plastic film on the power battery shell and battery recycling.
On the other hand, under the background of the continuous growth of wind power and photovoltaic installations and the accelerated construction of 5G base stations, the demand for energy storage batteries is growing rapidly. According to incomplete statistics, more than 120 energy storage industry chain enterprises have announced IPO progress since 2022. In addition, more than 100 domestic enterprises have financing dynamics, with a total financing amount of over 100 billion yuan. The concentration of capital has also led to a surge in the number of enterprises. With the number of newly established energy-storage enterprises reaching nearly 30,000 in 2022.
Among them, the expansion of the cell factory, battery main materials and auxiliary materials have a huge development opportunity.
“With the determination of the global green transition trend. The new energy transportation represented by lithium electricity and the new energy power represented by photovoltaic and wind power gradually began to replace the stock of traditional energy. And the new energy from the substitute energy to the main energy.” Jingwei Venture Capital believes that in recent years, with the popularization of electrification and intelligence. As well as the two-carbon policy and affordable Internet access such as photovoltaic and wind power. And the sudden increase in electricity costs caused by the war between Russia and Ukraine. The demand for power batteries and energy storage batteries have erupted. Among them, the expansion of the cell factory, battery main materials and auxiliary materials have a huge development opportunity.
“The energy storage circuit is growing at the fastest rate of any new energy industry.” Milei, China Science and Technology Innovation Star, said that among the three ways of energy storage. Air compression energy storage in physical energy storage at the power generation side (hydropower station is not suitable for technical investment). Hydrogen energy storage in chemical energy storage at the transportation side. And electrochemical energy storage at the user side, namely battery energy storage, are mainly suitable for VC investment.
In addition, future energy storage will be further to the “total time storage”, “long-term energy storage” may become the next breakthrough.
Zeng Yingzhe of Linear Capital believes that people are now looking more at electrochemical energy storage. But for the new power system of the whole society, there must be seconds, hours, days, months, or even years of energy storage. For example, hour-level batteries can be applied to vehicles such as passenger electric vehicles. While functions in heavy traffic, aerospace, and metallurgical industries need to be measured in days or more. “Minuter-second frequency modulation technology has been relatively mature at present, and mobile energy storage technology can basically meet the requirements. Looking at the extended line, there is a gap in long-term energy storage.”
In terms of technology implementation, most investors believe that there is no one for all solutions. Liquid, solid/semi-solid, and sodium and hydrogen batteries coexist. “In the past decade, the biggest application in the new energy sector, outside of industry, has been electric vehicles, because the rapid progress of lithium battery technology, cost reduction and a complete supply chain are enough to support the rapid development of electric vehicles,” Zhao told Waves. At the same time, in addition to lithium, “there are a lot of new energy alternatives being discussed. Such as sodium batteries, hydrogen fuel cells, and various energy storage technologies are iterating rapidly.”
Among them, the favorable policy of hydrogen energy on the top level directly promotes hydrogen energy investment to become a hot track in the primary market. In 2022, state ministries and commissions issued more than 50 related policies. With more than 300 supporting policies at various localities. Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, in particular, will be the next major subsidy target after pure electric models and plug-in models.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
“The hydrogen industry chain is still at an early stage, much like the state of lithium a decade ago, which is very suitable for early investment.”
According to Zhao, hydrogen also has natural advantages:. High energy density, large reserves in nature and low cost. So the average cost of hydrogen in the later stage is likely to be lower than that of gasoline. Hydrogen is one of the best technological paths in the current new energy. Hydrogen energy can not only replace the high carbon emission energy in the traditional industry. But also be used as an energy storage means to smooth the volatility brought by the scenery. And form a distinct complement to lithium batteries.
Mr Huang is also optimistic about the future prospects for hydrogen energy. In the field of subdivision, ion exchange membrane and target material are currently concerned. Including some equipment materials for hydrogen production by hydrogenation power supply. In terms of application scenarios, commercial vehicles and heavy trucks are the preferred destinations. The construction speed of hydrogenation stations and other infrastructure is one of the important constraints.
Of course, just like any “tuyere effect” in the history of venture capital, there are also investors who believe that the hydrogen energy circuit is too hot. The industry is not mature, and may not be able to scale and sustainable application for a long time. This can be seen from Musk’s repeated public expression of doubts about hydrogen and hydrogen fuel cells on social media platforms, and the termination of several hydrogen energy ipos.
According to Fu Zhilong of Cloud Capital, many technical barriers to upstream materials science is also one of the difficulties.
For example, the upstream raw material of hydrogen reactor film electrode, the upstream raw material of photovoltaic HJT cell low temperature silver paste, the core material formula is still in the hands of European, American and Japanese enterprises, which limits the leapfrog development of the industry. The practical application and enterprise hematopoietic function of hydrogen energy pathway still need a longer time to test.
Also worth mentioning is controlled nuclear fusion. In the view of many investors, nuclear fusion or the ultimate solution of energy, China Science and Technology Innovation Star Mi Lei believes that it is “just like the electric car 20 years ago, the impact of the future will gradually increase as time goes by”. But such a “science fiction” temperament of the track, investors are generally in a wait-and-see state at this stage.
There is still a long way to go from “ignition success” to “practical application value”. At least with the current technology. There are still a lot of hurdles that need to be crossed before the “power out > power in” commercial threshold can be reached. To borrow a common joke around the world, controlled fusion is always 50 years away from commercial use.
Chip数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Pressure will continue in the next two years
After two torrid years, semiconductor investment in 2022 is moving out of the supercycle and into deep water.
“The madness that multiplies several times a year is gone, but the madness that doubles is rare.” Yun Xiu Capital Zhao Zhanxiang said to us. In the past two years, this FA has served many large chip cases. Including Moore Thread, Aixin Yuanzhi, Yingren Technology, etc.
Data from Orange Technology show that as of November 22, 2022. A total of 3,587 investment and financing events occurred in China’s primary market chip semiconductor industry. With a total financing scale of 696.414 billion yuan. Compared with 2021, the amount and total amount of financing showed a double decline.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Despite the more than $1 billion in semiconductor financing that was completed this year, divided into CPU/GPU, automotive chips, and semiconductor equipment/materials segments. There is a clear sense that the traditionally sought-after chip design segment is going cold in 2022. Wang Wenrong of Dachen Financial Intelligence believes that there are fewer and fewer water projects in the field of chip design. And many people begin to go upstream to equipment and materials. And the development pattern of equipment startups has also emerged. Feng said that in 2022, they took the initiative to slow down the pace of sales. And that 2023 and 2024 will still be “pressure years.”
The cold first comes from the adjustment of the relationship between supply and demand.
Most of China’s chip companies produce chips for consumer electronics. And demand for chips has plummeted due to a sharp decline in shipments of consumer electronics such as smartphones in 2022. In fact, in the past few years, because of the imbalance between supply and demand. The chip shortage in some areas quickly turned into saturation. Several institutions pointed out that in the first half of 2023. The chip sector will continue to digest past inventory, the second half of a reasonable level.
The second is high valuations. In 2022, both Yuexin Semiconductor and Lead Thin Film ranked first in the primary market of semiconductor investment and financing in 2022 with a financing scale of 4.5 billion yuan. Zhao Zhanxiang said, because the valuation is too high, from 2021. The semiconductor field began to appear a lot of PE investment VC, VC angel phenomenon. He predicted that the phenomenon would continue this year, but that some PE’s. After being educated by the market, would “put themselves in their place.”数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
This year will be key for silicon carbide
As a bulk strategic product with both strategic and market characteristics. Chip is not only related to information security and national security, but also reflected through market transactions. Which makes its investment more strongly reflect the subtle double-sided nature: the confirmed demand comes from the understanding of domestic substitution and self-control. While the more commercial imagination comes from the market.
In 2023, chip and semiconductor investment opportunities are still an evolution of these two routes. Can belong to the former logic, including Wang Wenrong favored “military electronics”. “Semiconductor core parts, including some consumables” and Zhao Zhanxiang favored Xinchuang direction.
Military industry is a very prosperous plate in recent years. And the implementation of the military electronics in the chip, Wang Wenrong believes. “Although the market ceiling is not particularly high. But the income certainty is high and the gross profit is good, the plate concept is better.” He invested in Chengchang Technology, a company specializing in phased array T/R chips. Whose market value has exceeded 10 billion after its listing in 2022.
In the view of Zhao Zhanxiang, “the key industries related to the national economy and people’s livelihood will all use domestic chip hardware equipment and software operating system in the future”, so “the later Xinchuanghui is a long-term opportunity”. In the second half of 2022, the concept of Xinchuang has clearly become a secondary market main line.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Highhead Capital believes that in 2023
Highhead Capital believes that in 2023, in the field of silicon-based semiconductor advanced manufacturing process, the trend of line width miniaturization and structure 3D has prompted the demand for multiple coating equipment, and coating equipment has strong domestic replacement space. In addition, will be around the lithography machine key materials, components and compound semiconductor industry chain. Zhang Gaonan of China Ying Capital believes that China is the world’s single largest market in the downstream application fields of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, 5G and other third-generation semiconductors, and there is considerable space for domestic substitution.
The second logic belongs to another terminal that helps chip and semiconductor complete the grand narrative after consumer electronics and industry: the automobile. In 2023, Zhao Zhanxiang is optimistic about the direction include: intelligent car supply chain, mainly including autonomous driving and some pre-controller and silicon carbide industry chain.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
China Science and Technology Star Mi Lei said that in 2022, in the consumer chip cold at the same time, automotive chips began to rise.
“The automobile is intelligent after the new energy, so there will be a large number of power chips and optical chips used in the car”, and now the “igbt, silicon carbide and other power chips” drive very fast.
As a third-generation compound semiconductor material, silicon carbide has distinct advantages in the fields of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic power generation, rail transit, smart power grid and so on due to its high pressure, high temperature and low loss resistance. And in the present, it is “design, substrate, equipment and other links of the industrial chain are very short of stock”, in Zhao Zhanxiang’s view, 2023 if “mainstream enterprises get financing, start production expansion”, “the latter players will be difficult to compete”. In his view, this year will be a key year for the silicon carbide industry.
Songhe Capital Feng Hua also believes that “silicon carbide is indeed a great opportunity”, but the integration of materials innovation is usually a long cycle of ten years, so there should be full patience and risk assessment.
Because the market share of new energy vehicles in the next 3 to 5 years is expected to increase, coupled with the chip shortage event in the past few years, all bring domestic chips to the car opportunity, and automotive semiconductor represented by on-board computing chips, power semiconductor and sensor chips, as well as autonomous driving, intelligent cockpit, intelligent chassis, and so on, also began to become the semiconductor industry’s investment and financing.
In Zhao Zhanxiang’s view, “in order to avoid future supply chain security problems”, “some key components of new energy vehicles will still cultivate domestic manufacturers.”数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Zhao Feng of Fengnian Capital also believes that the next stage of opportunity is definitely to the basic layer, deep water area, such as the equipment, materials, instruments, software and other underlying technology. In Wang Wenrong’s opinion, although the car chip has a high technical threshold and barrier, it is also a big story track, but the cycle is relatively long. Under the capital environment in the past few years, more startups have emerged, the valuation is high, and the competition has become fierce. In the end, only a few companies will come out, and who will win remains to be seen.
Yao way capital Bai Zongyi also believes that if the layout of automobile intelligent industry chain, investment decisions will be relatively difficult. Because around the perception, decision, execution and other related fields, “including laser radar, 4D millimeter wave imaging radar, ADAS SOC, cabin SOC, L3-L4 unmanned decision-making algorithm, vehicle level MCU, etc.”, have emerged relative head companies. Although it will take time for these companies to become commercial, “the amount of capital raised and the introduction of commercial certification” have created certain barriers to competition.
Biotechnology
Life Sciences: Spring is coming back, but a different spring
After an investment boom in 2020 and a sharp decline in the second half of 2021, the biotech industry is still hovering at the freezing point in 2022.
According to the statistics of Yikai Capital, there were 2,012 investment events in China’s medical and health sector in 2022, with a total disclosed investment amount of 179.83 billion yuan — the latter figure was 329.25 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 45.4%.
For innovative drugs in particular, it has been a year of disillusionment. But in the throes of forced metamorphosis, some welcome changes are taking place in the world of innovative drugs.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Liu Dan of CDH Investment observes that companies are shifting from pure R&D innovation to a clinical perspective of “starting with the end” and paying more attention to how much market application value a differentiated product can ultimately bring. Zhiyun Yu, of Matrix Partners, sees the industry moving from the current Biotech stage, where revenues are not much of a concern, to Pharma, where commercialisation creates a lot of profit for shareholders.
Many investors agree that 2023 innovative drugs will rebound in the primary and secondary markets.
“Because the industry and the market still need real innovation.” “Through the global COVID-19 prevention and control, people have also seen the speed and power of scientific and technological innovation, no matter vaccines or innovative drugs,” said Yang Kun of Gaorong Capital. However, unlike the last wave of capital market dividends, “this time the investment boom is likely to place more emphasis on new product development driven by new technologies and new supplies.” Feng Rui Capital Ma Rui told us.
Aside from innovative drugs, which segments are more promising for investment?
Liu Dan believes that the field of cell/gene therapy is moving into the deep water due to the evolution of technological breakthroughs, such as carrier delivery technology breaking the bottleneck. He defined the key words as new modality, namely the distinction between large and small molecules, which is an important change in the technological path.
Yang said Gao continues to focus on early-stage, truly international innovation targets, including breakthrough medical devices, drug molecules or platform technologies with real clinical needs, and life science applications in areas such as synthetic biology and agricultural technology.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Jingwei Partners mentioned that in addition to continuing to invest in global innovative technology platforms in biomedical/instrument diagnostics and other products, it also pays attention to cross-disciplinary opportunities between medical and other industries, and forward-looking layout of life science tools and synthetic biology in the upstream of the industrial chain.
Crossover frontier science, is a particular term mentioned by investors this year. In Ma’s view, the development of neuroscience has also reached a turning point. The next 10 years will be a golden age for developing innovative drugs and treatments for central nervous system diseases.
One sign that Yu pointed to was the FDA approval of Biogen/Eisai’s new Alzheimer’s drug, Lecanemab, in January 2023.
Their previous generation of Alzheimer’s drugs was controversial, but Lecanemab’s approval is being hailed as a milestone by the industry.
For a long time, the extremely difficult brain science is a “holy grail” of life science research, among which the brain computer interface is the most popular field in the last two years. Since 1924, when Hans Berg, a German psychiatrist, first collected electrical signals from the human brain, the brain-computer interface has been a “100-year project”. However, with the development of AI, technological breakthroughs in electrode materials and information collection capabilities, brain-computer interface technology began to emerge from the laboratory into reality.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Liu Dan defines the stage of brain-computer interface in China with an “ice-breaking application exploration”. In the past, there were only non-invasive brain-computer interface companies, whose applications were relatively mature, and now they are moving down the path of serious scientific applications, namely, invasive brain-computer interfaces. Neuralink, founded by Mr Musk, is a good example of the latter.
Sequoia China is currently investing heavily in the brain science circuit. According to Yang Yunxia of Sequoia China, brain-computer interfaces already have clear applications, such as deep brain stimulation (DBS), also known as brain pacemakers. “The fastest growing applications are actually in the field of decoding the brain, and we look forward to one day mapping the brain.” Yang Yunxia said.
Overall, biotech investment is cool in 2022, with early and small investment trends still evident in almost all segments.
Synthetic biology: Will continue to suffer, investors are no longer paying for concepts
One branch of the health and life industry is synthetic biology, a hot concept that is tepid at the industry end. It is essentially an underlying technology, a new mode of production. Applications are also very wide, including chemical products, food raw materials, environmental treatment, bioenergy, drug intermediates and so on.
Since 2018, China’s synthetic biology has ushered in a new wave of financing climax. In 2022, domestic synthetic biology companies announced at least 43 official financing, many of them two rounds of financing a year.
However, according to the statistics of 36kr, the financing amount of this industry, whose global market size is less than 100 billion yuan at present, will be less than 10 billion yuan in 2022, and over 40% of the financing amount will be created by the top four companies, showing an obvious pattern of 19.
The core reason limiting the development of synthetic organisms may be their cost. “Cost is a very important factor,” says Zhang Jinjian of Oasis Capital. Xuesong said that limited by cost and technology, the commercial application of synthetic biology is still relatively narrow, mainly in some high value-added products and chemical synthesis of the field has advantages, “from the development stage, synthetic biology is equivalent to the Internet stage in 2000, to reach the expected wide application, You may also need to look forward to technological progress.”数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Several investors told us that the synthetic biology industry is still in its early stages, and most companies have not yet entered the critical stage of industrialization.
But in areas such as bulk new materials, primary market companies have reached a critical point in closing the business loop.
What is the future of synthetic biology? The middle and lower reaches of synthetic biology companies may become the “main battleground” for investors, says CDH Liudin. “Previous investments were mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches, where the lower reaches are the fastest to realize their R&D capabilities.”
Despite the current downturn in synthetic biology, many investors still see its commercial value and long-term benefits.
Liu Dan believes that synthetic biotechnology is rapidly becoming mature and commercial application scenarios are emerging. “We continue to see promising applications in drug discovery, cell engineering and high-end biofufacturing through efficient modification of cellular pathways.” Jingwei Venture Capital Yu Zhiyun said.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
“There is a long and difficult road ahead for synthetic biology companies to be profitable and sustainably profitable,” said Rui Ma of Fenrui Capital. But anyway, more than a third of the molecular world is restructured, and the possibilities behind this are exciting. After all, the country that controls most raw materials, molecules, commodities and manufacturing can control inflation, interest rates and finance.
Artificial Intelligence
Investors have many differences, breakthrough commercialization is the only consensus
Over the past 10 years, the wave of AI investment has fluctuated several times, but it has been slow to materialize due to commercialization difficulties. In 2022, it is not surprising that AI will be further cooled in the Chinese market due to the strengthening of RMB funds that prefer strong commercialization capability.
Data show that as of November 10, 2022, the number of financing events in the primary market of China’s AI industry circuit this year has 400, down 50% year-on-year; Financing transactions were estimated at 77.04 billion yuan, down 61 percent year on year.
But strange flowers bloom across the ocean. At the end of 2022, ChatGPT, which is born based on Transformer algorithm and continuously enlarged, covers millions of C-end users within a week, providing new narrative space for AI-generated text.
AIGC, namely artificial intelligence generated content, can be divided into audio generation, text generation, image generation, video generation and other subdivisions according to the mode, as well as text generated picture, text generated video and other cross-mode generation.
2022 is considered the first year of the AIGC. “Hidden Waves” interviewed several investors about ChatGPT, and there was a view that AIGC might become a platform-level racetrack.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
To some extent, the birth of ChatGPT has shaken domestic investors’ strategy of investing To B in the AI sector.
ChatGPT doesn’t go directly To developers, it goes To C first, and once developers see the enthusiasm for the product on the C side, more startups will build on it. Chen Weiguang of Lanchi Venture Capital believes that the combination of AI entrepreneurship and business model should be thought of on the first day of AI entrepreneurship, and should not be thought about after the scale of traffic.
But there are still problems with the new way of commercializing scenarios To C. This is also the reason why Zhou Wei of CCV watched the AIGC project intensively but did not sell it in the end. First, all AI companies have no big laboratory except OpenAI, and all their products are not differentiated except ChatGPT. Second, the paying user is not clear, pay intention is not clear, pay method is not clear. And he believes that if AIGC is To B, in order to seize the biggest pain point of the industry, it must produce an explosive multiplier effect to break through the bottleneck, and the other party’s willingness to pay will be strong.
In terms of investment in AIGC, more people believe that infra will have more opportunities, which may be the level with the highest commercial returns in the short term.
In Zhou Wei’s opinion, it is difficult for the application layer to compete with large factories for traffic, and the underlying technology is the source of differentiation. Therefore, the infrastructure of “large model” has become the key direction of most investors.
But big models also have “route disputes” :
For example, people are still debating whether there will be a universal big model in the future, or whether each domain will have its own basic model. According to Liu Kai, the “big model debate” in the development stage of AI can actually be likened to the development of the cloud. Due to the high early upfront cost, the latter will be operated and maintained by public cloud companies, which is undoubtedly a perfect match for small companies in need. But the bottleneck is that when the client company reaches a certain size, it makes more sense to build a private cloud. However, for AI at its current early stage, Liu predicts that AI will still use the unified grand model in the next few years.
However, Ren Bobing of Innovation Works also said that there are still very few infrastructure companies related to large models in China, and the ecology of most application companies is somewhat different from that of the United States.
Another problem with larger models is cost. OpenAI, which raised $1 billion last year, is a major contributor to large models. The cost of the large model it trains, the GPT-3 series, is so large that the entire English Wikipedia only accounts for 0.6% of its training data. The cost of GPT-4, widely believed to be coming in 2023, is likely to reach hundreds of millions of dollars.
cost reduction has become an important investment direction of infra. Mr. Liu Kai said that Wuyuan has set up a number of infra mid-platform collaborative and tool enterprises in 2022, with the common goal of reducing cost and lowering the usage threshold.
Finding vertical application scenarios is also important for AI investment.
Yao way capital Bai Zongyi told us: AI is a new type of productivity, which needs to look at the industry development opportunities from the perspective of the complete industrial chain. AI infrastructure such as data perception, transmission, storage, computing, data/AI infra, etc. There are systematic investment opportunities in robotics, intelligent driving, enterprise service SaaS, and vertical industry application perspectives such as digitalization and intelligent transformation of high-end manufacturing industries such as new energy and consumer electronics industry chain. In infrastructure, the emphasis is more on the technical barriers and highly matched personnel of the startup team, as well as its knowhow, productization, marketing and delivery capabilities in AI+ verticals.
In interviews, many investors mentioned that AI is just middleware. Chen Weiguang also believes that AI cannot be viewed in isolation. He believes that the “three waves superimposed” of AI + Web3 + 3D interaction will define the next big technology cycle.
Another popular phrase is the arrival of “the era of the common people”. Zhang Jinjian of Oasis Capital believes that AIGC will enter more into the life scene in 2023, which is the year of landing and penetration, but more general artificial intelligence as we understand it (such as unmanned driving) is more likely to appear in 2025~2027.
The large model is like a centralized infrastructure such as “hydropower and coal” built at the bottom.
Zhou Zhifeng of Qiming Venture Capital believes that the core significance of generalization ability provided by large models is that everyone can directly use large models, so that AI ability can be more effectively implemented in various scenarios. The large model is like a centralized infrastructure such as “hydropower and coal” built at the bottom. Entrepreneurs or enterprises can directly use energy, and they only need to focus on the deployment of terminal applications in subdivided scenarios, rather than the vertical “chimney” entrepreneurial paradigm of high R&D difficulty in the past AI.
An industry consensus on AI is that although the wave of AI has been going on for 10 years since the birth of neural networks in 2012, it is still in its early stages, with penetration of AI technology in less than 30% of all industry applications, and it is mostly used at shallower business nodes.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Qiming Ventures will remain one of the most active investors in AI in 2022.
In Zhou Zhifeng’s opinion, artificial intelligence is still one of the most exciting investment sectors for him, because the new technology paradigm of large model + fine tuning, as a breakthrough in underlying technology and engineering, enables startups to use AI technology in the way of invoking cloud services at low cost, so that they no longer need to make models from zero, thus greatly reducing the development cost. So that its application will become faster and more efficient. Therefore, Zhou Zhifeng believes that it is clear that AI will reach a new level at this point in time, which is a key inflection point after the development of deep learning technology for more than a decade.
Zhou Wei believes that if AI entrepreneurs want to raise funds smoothly in 2023, the focus is still on commercialization progress, which requires AI technology to help the industry solve the key problems, rather than just nice to have things. Ren Bobing pointed out that people should be more confident in 2023. One reason is that AI, as a “technology infrastructure”, is still iterating rapidly, further penetrating all walks of life and becoming more popular. The second is greater creativity, understanding and generalization based on large models. He thinks 2023 will be the year when new big-model technologies and AIGCs continue to explode.
Commercial aerospace数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
More iconic events, and the singularity moment is upon us
Since 2015, when China Aerospace started to encourage private companies and capital to enter, more and more investors have found that commercial space is one of the hard technology tracks where Chinese companies have a chance to take a major global role.
But hanging over the field is more non-consensus. The Waves study found that three key questions in commercial space are waiting to be answered (perhaps for now) : first to orbit vs. first to recycle, solid vs. liquid, and small vs. big.
With SpaceX in the forefront, and with the ultimate goal of reducing costs, it has long been an industry consensus that rockets should be “recyclable.” But whether startups directly develop rockets that can successfully launch satellites into orbit, or first experiment with recoverable technology, diverges.
The former is represented by the star power. On Jan. 9, China successfully launched five satellites on its Ceres 1 Yaowu carrier rocket, marking the first commercial space launch in 2023. It was the fifth consecutive launch of Xinghe’s self-developed commercial carrier rocket, providing 19 commercial satellites into orbit for customers — completing a commercial loop on its own, rather than relying entirely on external financing. The latter is represented by Deep Blue Aerospace. At present, three consecutive liquid rocket recovery experiments of 10 meters, 100 meters and kilometers have been completed.
However, in rocket technology, there has been a “solid-liquid debate” for a long time, that is, whether solid rocket or liquid rocket is more suitable for space launch.
Solid rocket has a long history, mature technology, no refueling, high reliability, and significantly shorter launch period than liquid rocket, but it cannot be recovered. Liquid rockets have the advantage of higher specific impulse and greater transport capacity, but they require much more complex engines that require significant development and launch costs.
There is a world-class “curse” in the space industry: after SpaceX, the first liquid rocket flights of private commercial space companies all ended in failure, including the most likely domestic success of Blue Arrow space. This also means that for the more difficult liquid rocket, no commercial space company in China can achieve normal orbit.
The battle for big and small rockets stems from different market needs: small solid launch vehicles with low cost can eat the scattered launch of micro and nano satellites; Medium and large liquid launch vehicles meet the needs of low orbit constellation networking. As the number of satellites on the same orbital surface increases, it is often necessary to launch tens of tons, and rocket capacity becomes important.
Many investors believe that due to policy support and technological breakthroughs, commercial space will reach a critical match point in the next two years.
“Solid rockets that can be successfully launched into orbit are already on the way to commercialization,” said Li Jianwei of Jincheng Investment. “By 2024, a liquid-recyclable rocket will be put into orbit, and there is a chance to recover it by the end of the year.”数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Zhencheng started to study the rise of SpaceX in 2015, and since then has looked at almost all commercial space companies in China, but Li Jianwei has always had “reservations” about solid rockets. He believes that solid rockets cannot achieve the ultimate goal of reducing the cost per kilogram per unit of orbit, “solid costs 100,000 yuan/kg, liquid rockets may drop to 60,000 to 70,000 yuan, but the most essential change of recyclable rockets, after sending back the rocket’s most valuable engine, can save 70% of the cost, greatly improve the margin.”
In the 1990s, countless investors lost money in the space industry. Bill Gates, for example, invested a lot of money and was disappointed. The logjam was broken by Musk’s SpaceX in a way that was simple enough to say: cut costs by 10, 100 times. Chinese commercial space companies cost more than $15,000 per kilogram to launch, five times the cost of SpaceXw’s Falcon 9 launch.
This means that whoever completes the liquid rocket’s orbit + recovery first changes the cost structure by rolling.
And the seat of the head commercial space companies will also face a big reshuffle: the enterprises that have not been successfully launched have been proved false to a certain extent, disappear, and investment is rapidly differentiated.
Li Jianwei believes that the most ideal target is: liquid rocket orbit + recovery, “we do not repeat many models.” Xu Shi of Shanhang Capital believes that the demand side of the commercial space field is showing signs of gradually rising. In 2014, The State Council issued the “Guidance on the Investment and Financing Mechanism of Innovation in Key Fields to Encourage Social Investment”. After eight years of development, the initial ecology has been formed, and there are a certain number of enterprises in satellite manufacturing, rocket research and development and production, launch and ground measurement and control industries.
Li Jianwei also believes that “the next three years will be the singularity of China’s commercial space”. According to the current research and development path, before 2025, there will be a high probability of commercial space enterprises to realize the recovery of liquid rocket into orbit, then the cost of loading into orbit, from the current 60,000 ~ 100,000 yuan/kg to 20,000 ~ 30,000 yuan/kg, greatly reducing the cost of orbit; And as recovery technology matures, so does the frequency of rocket launches. A triad of heavy-duty recoverable rockets that can carry more loads is also on the agenda.数字化转型网szhzxw.cn
Commercial spaceflight is one of the most visible examples of how technology, and investment in technology, will change humanity. The “vague right” and “precise wrong” that entrepreneurs and investors get here is also our ultimate experience in the face of the technological revolution. The process is undoubtedly exciting, but it is bound to be long.
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