这几天一个新名词火遍全球：ChatGPT。ChatGPT是由美国OpenAI公司开发的一个人工智能聊天机器人程序，推出仅两个月后，其月活用户已经突破了1亿，成为史上用户增长速度最快的消费级应用程序。
ChatGPT使用基于GPT-3.5架构的大型语言模型，GPT就是Generative Pre-training Transformer（预训练生成模型），它基于RLHF (Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback，即基于人类反馈的强化学习)新技术。RLHF 解决了生成模型的一个核心问题，即如何让人工智能模型的产出和人类的常识、认知、需求、价值观保持一致。
我们可以把ChatGPT概括为「聊天机器人」+「搜索工具」+「文本创造工具」。它以文字方式互动（支持几十种语言互动），不仅可以自然对话，还可以处理相对复杂的语言，完成包括自动文本生成、自动问答等在内的多种任务。此外，ChatGPT还具有编写和调试计算机程序的能力。基于以上功能，ChatGPT可以编写和调试计算机程序，还可以进行文学、媒体相关领域的创作，包括创作音乐、电视剧、童话故事、诗歌和歌词等。在某些测试情境下，ChatGPT在教育、考试、回答测试问题方面的表现甚至优于普通人类测试者。
ChatGPT是一个AIGC「生成式AI」（区别于分析式AI，如人脸识别等），简单地说就是「内容生成器」。人类的智慧在于创造。我们写诗、设计产品、制作文案、编写代码，这些事情都是之前AI所不具备的。但最近，AI开始尝试创造有意义、美妙并符合人类价值观的东西。生成式AI正在变得不仅更快，而且在生成的内容等方面比人类创造得可能更好。
传统的知识密集型行业，从社交媒体到游戏，从广告到建筑，从编程到平面设计，从产品设计到法律咨询，从市场营销到销售；每一个原来需要人类创作的行业都正在被机器重新创造……生成式AI可以处理的领域包括了知识工作和创造性工作，而这涉及到数亿的人工劳动力。生成式AI可以使这些人工的效率和创造力大幅提高，而且更有能力。
这篇文章（ChatGPT可能马上取代你！这是它能做的十个工作）中列举了十个可能会被ChatGPT取代的工作：
- 技术类工作：程序员、软件工程师、数据分析师
- 媒体类工作：广告、内容创作、技术写作、新闻
- 法律类工作：法律或律师助理
- 市场研究分析师
- 教师
- 金融类工作：金融分析师、个人财务顾问
- 交易员
- 平面设计师
- 会计师
- 客服人员
虽然文章的作者没有列举，但很显然，“管理咨询师/技术咨询师”也是属于其中之一。笔者作为一名企业咨询顾问，为了解未来的竞争对手，特地花了半天时间研究了怎么注册、登录ChatGPT。一番摸索之后，终于登录成功。
首先，作为一名爱好诗歌的山东男人，我问了ChatGPT第一个问题：
额。。我只能说，给我一个小时，我写不出这个水平。
然后，我问了两个咨询领域常见的问题，ChatGPT秒回。现截图如下：
上述两个回答基本上比较全面。然后，咨询公司经常需要写项目建议书，比如我想写一份能源企业数字化转型项目的项目建议书，我让ChatGPT给我列了一个提纲：
有了提纲之后，可以让它扩充一下其中你不熟悉的部分：
从上述对话中可以看到，ChatGPT给出的答案具有结构化、系统化的特点，内容也比较全面。如果把ChatGPT看作一个咨询顾问，这个咨询顾问给出的答案已经超过了半数入职1-3年的普通顾问。此外，我们咨询顾问针对一个问题，需要查找资料、分析思考良久之后才会给出答案，而ChatGPT却可以秒回。
针对ChatGPT替代咨询顾问这个问题，我想看看ChatGPT是怎么看待的，然后我又问了一个问题：
我震惊了。是的，我们能想到的，它基本也都想到了！
微软公司自2019年起，已向OpenAI公司投资100亿美元。微软公司CEO纳德拉说：“ChatGPT是我从未见过的技术扩散；对于知识型工作者来说，ChatGPT完全等于是工业革命，这将对每个人都有帮助……..我们将会把ChatGPT整合进我们的应用，你可以完全期待，微软的每个产品将接入ChatGPT，会有这些相同的人工智能功能将会全面彻底地改变我们的产品。”
所以在不久的将来，我们可以看到windows系统、office将会接入ChatGPT。当我们要写一份PPT格式的数字化转型项目的建议书时，ChatGPT会在瞬间生成一个完整度50-70%的初稿；当我们要写一份产业园区的word格式的项目可研时，ChatGPT也会在瞬间生成一个完整度50-70%的初稿，我们要做的就是完善剩余的30-50%。这将大大提升咨询工作的效率，也将从根本上改变咨询行业。
在笔者看来，ChatGPT以及其他AIGC（生成式AI）将可能对咨询行业（法律、会计、媒体等专业服务业类似）带来如下影响：
- 人人都可以成为一名“咨询顾问”；
- ChatGPT等类似AI工具将会是咨询顾问最常用的工具；
- 客户在简单、确定情景下的咨询需求将大幅减少；
- 单个项目咨询团队的人数将会减少，咨询公司人员规模也会缩减；
- 在此环境下，每一名职业咨询顾问都需要思考如何才能保持竞争力；
- 咨询公司之间的差异性主要体现在理念、价值观、创新能力、服务质量上（“让我们与众不同的，是我们的人性”）。
上周三（2月1日）以色列总统艾萨克·赫尔佐格 (Isaac Herzog) 发表了部分由ChatGPT撰写的演讲，他也成为首个公开使用ChatGPT的领导人。“能够成为一个拥有如此充满活力和创新的高科技产业的国家的总统，我很自豪。” 据悉，这句开场白是由ChatGPT撰写的。
最后，我们用总统先生上周三的发言作为我们文章的结尾，“硬件和软件无法取代人的意志……..决定我们命运的不是机器，而是我们为全人类创造更美好明天的心灵、思想和决心。”赫尔佐格说。
翻译：
There’s a new word going around the world these days: ChatGPT. ChatGPT is an artificial intelligence chatbot program developed by OpenAI in the United States. Just two months after its launch, Chatgpt has more than 100 million monthly active users, making it the fastest growing consumer app in history.
Figure shows the home page of ChatGPT after login
ChatGPT uses a large-scale language model based on GPT-3.5 architecture, and GPT is Generative Pre-training Transformer. It is based on the new technology of RLHF (Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback). RLHF solves a core problem of generating models, that is, how to make the output of artificial intelligence models consistent with human common sense, cognition, needs and values.
We can summarize ChatGPT as “chatbot” + “search tool” + “text creation tool”. It can interact with text (supporting dozens of language interactions), not only natural conversation, but also can handle relatively complex language, complete a variety of tasks including automatic text generation, automatic question and answer. In addition, ChatGPT has the ability to write and debug computer programs. Based on the above functions, ChatGPT can write and debug computer programs, as well as create literature and media related fields, including music, TV series, fairy tales, poetry and song lyrics. In some test situations, ChatGPT even outperformed the average human tester in teaching, testing, and answering test questions.
ChatGPT is an AIGC “generative AI” (as distinct from analytical AI, such as face recognition), which is simply a “content generator”.
Human wisdom lies in creation. We write poetry, we design products, we write copywriting, we write code, all these things that AI didn’t do before. But more recently, AI is trying to create things that are meaningful, beautiful, and in line with human values. Generative AI is becoming not only faster, but potentially better than humans at creating things like content.
Traditional knowledge-intensive industries, from social media to games, from advertising to architecture, from programming to graphic design, from product design to legal advice, from marketing to sales; Every industry that used to require human creation is being recreated by machines… Generative AI can handle knowledge work and creative work, which involve hundreds of millions of people. Generative AI can make these humans much more efficient and creative, and more capable.
This article (ChatGPT may replace you right away! Here are ten jobs it can do.) Here are ten jobs that ChatGPT could replace:
1. Technical jobs: programmer, software engineer, data analyst
2. Media jobs: advertising, content creation, technical writing, journalism
3. Legal work: Legal or paralegal
4. Market research analyst
5. teacher
6. Financial job: Financial analyst, personal financial consultant
7. trader
8. Graphic designer
9. accountant
10. Customer service staff
Although the authors don’t list them, it’s clear that “management consultant/technical consultant” is one of them. As a corporate consultant, I spent half a day studying how to register and log on to ChatGPT to learn about future competitors. After some fumbling, finally log in successfully.
First, as a man from Shandong who loves poetry, I asked ChatGPT the first question:
Well… All I can say is, give me an hour, I can’t write at this level.
Then, I asked two questions common in the field of consulting, and ChatGPT answered in seconds. The screenshot is as follows:
These two answers are basically comprehensive. Then, consulting firms often need to write project proposals. For example, when I wanted to write a project proposal for a digital transformation project in an energy company, I asked ChatGPT to outline it for me:
Once you have an outline, make it expand on the parts you are not familiar with:
As can be seen from the above conversation, the answers given by ChatGPT are structured, systematic and comprehensive.
If you think of ChatGPT as a consultant, this consultant has given more answers than half of the average consultant who has been with the company for one to three years. What’s more, ChatGPT can answer a question in seconds, unlike our consultants, who need to search for information, analyze and think for a long time before giving an answer.
I wanted to see what ChatGPT thought about the question of alternative consultants, and then I asked another question:
I was shocked. Yes, it thought of almost everything we could think of!
Microsoft has invested $10 billion in OpenAI since 2019. “ChatGPT is a diffusion of technology like I’ve never seen before; ChatGPT is the full industrial Revolution for knowledge workers, and that will help everyone… . “We’re going to integrate ChatGPT into our applications, and you can fully expect that every Microsoft product will have access to ChatGPT, and that these same AI features will completely change our products.”
So in the near future, we’ll see windows, office access to ChatGPT. When we write a powerpoint proposal for a digital transformation project, ChatGPT instantly generates a first draft that is 50-70% complete. When we write a word project for an industrial park, ChatGPT will instantly produce a first draft that is 50-70% complete. All we have to do is refine the remaining 30-50%. This will greatly improve the efficiency of consulting work and will fundamentally change the consulting industry.
In my opinion, ChatGPT and other AIGCs (generative AI) are likely to have the following impact on the consulting industry (similar to law, accounting, media and other professional services) :
Accounting, media and other professional services) :
1 .Anyone can become a “consultant”;
2. AI tools like ChatGPT will be the most common tool for consultants;
3. The consulting demand of clients in simple and definite scenarios will be greatly reduced;
4. The number of individual project consulting teams will be reduced, as will the size of consulting firms;
5. In this environment, every career counselor needs to think about how to stay competitive;
6. The differences between consulting firms are mainly reflected in the philosophy, values, innovation ability and service quality (” What makes us different is our humanity “).
On Wednesday, Israeli President Isaac Herzog became the first leader to use ChatGPT publicly when he gave a speech partly written by ChatGPT. I am proud to be president of a country with such a dynamic and innovative high-tech industry.” ChatGPT is believed to have written the opening line.
Finally, we end our article with the President’s statement last Wednesday, “Hardware and software cannot replace human will… . It is not machines that will determine our destiny, but our hearts, minds and determination to create a better tomorrow for all.” “Herzog said.
本文由数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）转载而成，来源：科森咨询 ，作者：肖福利；编辑/翻译：数字化转型网宁檬树；审核：数字化转型网默然。
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