很多时候，不转型的风险是确定的，转型的收益是不确定。数字化转型的动力不是因为收益可以预期，而是不转型的风险和成本难以忍受。
一、数字化正当时
01. 人类社会的发展史，就是一部生存空间迁徙史。人类生存的足迹穿越了狩猎时代的森林、农耕时代的平原、工业时代的城市之后，正进入一个新空间——数字空间。数字化是一场伟大的迁徙，在进化的道路上，迁徙是一种本能，也正演化成一种生存的核心能力。
02. 我们需要携手寻找通向数字世界的“诺亚方舟”，在这场波澜壮阔又充满风险的数字新大陆的大航海中，我们的梦想是，成为站在“诺亚方舟”桅杆顶向远方眺望，发现绿洲并找到数字化彼岸的人。
03. 建造数字世界的“钢筋水泥”是芯片、算法、数据、软件、网络、传感器、数据库、云平台，以及人们对这个世界过往规律的认知以及对未来的想象，它们构成了数字空间的基础设施。
04. 未来十年是数字基础设施的安装期，全球数字经济最重要的主题之一是数字基础设施的重构、切换与迁徙，以及基于新型数字基础设施的商业生态再造。
05. 消费互联网经历了激情迸发、百舸争流的“三峡时代”，正加速与产业互联网深度融合，进入静水深流的“杨子江时代”，数字化的江河更宽、更深、更稳、更大，其引领性、基础性、全局性的作用更加凸显。
06. 数字化已成为巨变时代国家、产业、企业间发展的分水岭，加速核心竞争优势的此消彼长。美科技公司市值已超过欧洲所有上市公司，15年前仅为四分之一；过去十年，IBM市值没有太大变化，微软涨了20倍；美国风电公司NextEra市值超过埃克森美孚，收入只有后者的十分之一。
07. 中国的数字化一定是独特的，中国是全球最大的消费互联网大国、社零总额大国、数字消费大国和制造业大国，数字化主线把四个大国优势聚合在一起，将形成叠加效应、聚合效应和倍增效应。
08. 有创新活力的中小企业持续涌现，是衡量一个国家或地区经济繁荣的核心指标。德国经济能源部长曾说“令人担忧的是过去的20年德国几乎没有出现新的创新型性企业，而美国和中国过去20年里涌现出现一批世界领先的科技公司。” 日本失去的30年，是失去小企业成长机会的30年。
09. 中国产业数字化从跟跑到并跑的标志，不是特定数字化领域实现了从Copy to China到Copy from China，而是中国具备了重构数字化理念体系的能力。这种能力应当是基于对全球领先者关于数字化的概念、理论、方法持续学习，以及扎根中国最新的技术创新和产业实践，构建自己的数字化转型认知体系和方法论，找到适合中国的独特发展模式。
10. 数字科技平台是全球科技产业创新的主战场。工业革命以来，英德美等大国崛起的背后都在于各自成功发育出了独特的科技创新体系。今天的大国竞争，很大程度上体现为各类技术平台及其生态系统所承载的创新体系之间的竞争。
11. 数字科技平台为科技创新与需求之间提供了精准对接和高效迭代验证的新机制，已成为新科技研发、扩散、产业化的孵化器、加速器，为创新跨越“死亡之谷”开辟了一条新路。
二、数字化转型：解构与重组
12. 数字化转型的逻辑起点需求巨变。数字化不仅武装了供给端，也武装起了需求端，今天的消费者需要的是一种个性化、实时化、场景化、内容化、互动化的消费和服务体验。
13. 数字化把消费者武装起来了，他们有了更多的表达权、话语权、参与权、选择权，这是一个消费者主权崛起的时代，但供给端并没有为这场变革做好充分的准备。你缺乏的不是客户，而是与客户互动。
14. 今天，需求已经不是简单碎片化，而是粉尘化了。碎片化是看得见的需求掉在地上变成碎片，粉尘化是看不见的需求变得颗粒化。
15. 面对数字时代的需求巨变，所有企业都将重新思考和定义自己，“我是谁”，“我如何给客户创造价值”。未来只有客户运营商才能够生存，需要实时洞察客户需求，实时满足消费者需求；交付产品只是服务的开始，持续交互才是服务的常态。
16. 数字化就是在比特的汪洋中重构原子的运行轨道，用比特“引导”原子，用弱电“控制”强电，这将驱动赛博空间的数字孪生无限逼近真实物理空间，从原子、部件、产品、产线到服务，从管网、建筑、城市、地球到星系，从基因、细胞、心脏、大脑到人体，从材料科学、生命科学到制造、建筑，人类正在数字世界中构建数字孪生体。
17. 基于“物理实体+数字孪生”的资源优化配置将成为数字经济的基本形态，实现物理空间与数字空间各类要素、活动相互映射、实时交互、高效协同，以及系统内资源配置和运行的按需响应、快速迭代、动态优化。
18. 实现全链路数字化是实现供需精准匹配的根本途径。数字时代传统供需从一个缓慢僵化的机械系统，演变成一个动态演进的生物系统。只有以消费者为中心，将消费需求信息前置于新消费产生，构建端到端的数字化解决方案，基于数据洞察及时捕捉市场动向，重构供给体系，才能从根本上实现供需精准匹配。
19. 未来所有企业都将是客户运营商，他们有三个特征：客户资源成为企业核心资产，实现全链路数字化集成以及全链路实时响应。
20. 实时洞察和满足客户需要，企业需要构建基于数据+算法驱动的需求实时响应与资源实时优化新体系，其核心是四个关键词：在线+闭环+高频+全局。
21. 面对数字化转型大变革，企业思维需要实现三个转变：
一是从不变应万变，到以万变应万变，以不确定性应对不确定性，需要摒弃冗余思维、静态思维，走向精准思维、动态思维。
二是以增量革命构建新型能力，把软件、设备、流程优化、管理变革最终都要转化为企业的新型能力。
三是从产品商到客户运营商，通过产品服务与客户建立一种“强关系”，能成为24小时在线，了解、预测、满足客户需求的“客户运营商”。
22. 成为客户运营商的三板斧：《深度粉销2.0》对如何运营客户提出三个关键举措。
圈层化，找出核心目标用户群体，核心层锁定产品的功能和情感有强烈需求的小众群体，影响层要满足四个条件：专业度、影响力、爱尝鲜、爱分享，影响由核心层向影响层、外围层扩散；
情感化，用户运营的关键抓手。情感降维就是情绪，这是短期目标；情感升维就是价值观，这是长期追求方向；
参与感，激活用户的动力之源，要把产品、服务、品牌、营销的全过程开放，与用户持续互动。
23. 世界上有数字化道路：一种是可以买来的数字化，人们可以买机器人、数控机床、ERP、CRM、MES，各种软件都可以买。一种是买不来的数字化，你能买来设备，但买不来工艺；能买来软件，但买不来数据；你能买来咨询，买不来核心竞争力。需要思考的是，你能买来的，你的竞争对手都能够买来。自我进化能力才是构筑核心竞争优势的关键。
24. 数字化转型不只是把技术武装到牙齿，而是把技术融入企业的基因，开启一场永无止境的能力进化之旅。
三、长周期视角中数字技术演进的逻辑
25. 工业革命事实上是两场革命：动力革命和控制革命。工业革命200多年来，伟大产品的背后，都是控制技术突破，瓦特发明蒸汽机、莱特兄弟发明飞机、工业3.0标志技术到工业互联网，核心是解决控制的问题。工业革命的发展史，就是控制技术不断演进、升级、迭代的发展史。研究控制技术演进历史，既是理解工业革命演进规律的必然要求，也是观察和理解当下数字时代纷繁复杂技术发展逻辑的一把钥匙。
26. 60年来，从大型机、微型机、智能手机、云计算、数据中台、智能汽车到5G，尽管不同时代的技术和产品形态不同，但其技术底层演进的逻辑是一致的，即控制系统的软硬解耦，从封闭走向开放，推动了控制在场景、空间、规模和效率上的变革，其共同的逻辑是，硬件通用化+服务可编程。
27. 一次产业革命，一代基础设施。每一次产业和技术革命大概持续50年到60年的时间，前30年是基础设施的安装期，后30年是基础设施的拓展期。数字时代，云计算为核心的新型基础设施的大幕才刚刚拉开。
28. 亚马逊、谷歌、微软、阿里自主路线的云占市场75%，全球没有一家基于开源技术现大规模商业化公共服务。
29. 人们远远低估了云计算的价值，云计算的意义不在于降低IT成本、提高运营效率，云计算是数字时代一个国家创新的基础设施，是大国未来体系和生态竞争的基石。
10多年前亚马逊有一个愿景：“学生在宿舍里就能使用与世界上最大的公司一样的基础设施”，今天这个目标已经实现了。
云计算让一个创业者有机会享受最先进的开发环境设施，实现了新技术大规模低成本扩散，更重要的是推动了创新供需精准匹配，也为数据要素流动提供了可行的市场化方案。
30. 数字时代需要重新思考基础研究与技术开发的关系。1945年范内瓦·布什给总统的《科学：无尽的前沿》，强调基础科学研究的重要，并促成了美国自然科学基金会成立。但其后遗症在于，对基础研究（科学）与应用研究（技术）的分类观，误导了人们对科学和技术规律认知。只有基础研究才能发现新知识，而应用研究只是知识的应用？
事实上，科学、技术与工程是平行发展的，并无绝对先后，在云原生时代更是如此，基础研究与应用研究正在进入“发现—发明循环”迭代中。
31. 云计算发展的历史表明，不是贫穷限制人们的想象，而是富有限制了人们的想象。
亚马逊发展云计算的最大动力在于高昂的运营成本难以承受，现金流面临枯竭、股价最高下降80%，穷则思变、困则思变，这是公有云发展的最大动力。
谷歌是云计算概念提出者及核心技术理念的倡导者，作为一个有更好现金流的“富家子弟”，技术上的引领者没有进化成为公有云商业化的开拓者。
32. 世界上有两种云计算：一种是“350公里的‘高铁’”， 数据中心CPU利用率可以达到30%；一种是“60公里的‘绿皮车’”，数据中心CPU利用率不到5%。如果中国数据中心服务器CPU使用效率从5%提高到25%，服务器可节省3000亿，电费可节省800亿度，相当于一个三峡。
33. 欧盟云计算计划盖亚失败的启示：开源技术体系实现不了欧盟云计算发展的目标。2020年6月，欧盟 启动盖亚（GAIA-X）计划，致力于为欧洲构建公共数据基础设施，希望欧盟不依赖于美国和中国的云计算公司，但两年后发现这一目标难以实现，重新邀请亚马逊、Google、微软和阿里云参与GAIA-X计划，这四家公司的共同特点是自主路线构建云计算的技术体系。
34. 公有云是第二次大航海时代的“土地”，可以把小水坑、小湖泊，变成大江大海，是孕育数字时代突破性新技术、伟大企业的摇篮，如SNOWFLAKE。云计算能力正在定义大国全球竞争的新边界。
35. 开放自动化时代正在到来。软硬一体化的自动控制系统正在不断解耦，一个高度依赖专有系统、低效系统、昂贵系统、更新缓慢的封闭自动化系统，正在演变成一个能够对客户需求快速响应的开放自动化系统。
人们可能低估开放自动化的影响深远。传统专有、低效率的封闭控制系统，正在向即插即用、开放自动化系统演进，这将带来了自动化工程设计、实施、运营的高速度、敏捷性、灵活性和高效率，也会带来控制技术体系乃至生产运营体系的变革。
36. 未来10年，OT技术与IT技术融合有两条路线和模式：一是在现有技术、产品、网络、系统架构不变的基础上，以标准统一驱动数据融合，可以称之为“存量嫁接式融合”；二是推动OT、IT底层技术体系基于云边端进行解构，在解构基础上重新封装并实现融合，可以称之为“数字原生式融合”。
37. 从经济学的视角看，硬件通用性遵循的是规模经济，服务可编程遵循的是范围经济。就是让变化快的软件摆脱束缚，变得更快，应对各种需求的不确定性；让利用率高的硬件逐渐趋于统一，使得利用率变得越来越高。
38. 什么是数字化、网络化、智能化？数字化是能够把一个物理世界运行在数字空间里用比特来表达，解决的是数字化的信息有和无的问题；网络化解决的是这些数据能不能在多个系统之间流动的问题。智能化解决的问题是数据是不是可以自动流动的问题。
39. 从软硬解耦的视角来理解，什么是汽车“召回”。马斯克说“召回”这个词需要“召回”了，因为对特特特斯拉而言，召回=软件升级（OTA），你不需要将车开到4S店去更换维修硬件。这是对硬件通用化、服务可编程最好的诠释。
40. 数字化带来两场革命：决策革命和工具革命。马克思说 “各种经济时代的区别,不在于生产什么,而在于怎样生产,用什么劳动资料生产。”从农业社会、工业社会到信息社会，人类生产工具从手工工具、能量转换工具演进到今天的智能工具，如数控机床、机器人等替代体力劳动者的工具，以及CAD、CAE等服务脑力劳动者的工具，这是工具革命。
41. 数字化带来了企业决策体系重构。企业竞争的核心是资源配置效率的竞争，资源配置优势的核心在于科学决策，数字化转型就是用“数据+算法”的决策替代经验决策，核心在于数据的自动流动——正确的数据、在正确的时间、以正确的方式传递给正确的人和机器。
42. 为什么美的、特斯拉、盒马、犀牛智造、物美等行业领导者都不得不自己主导开发核心业务系统？今天，当一个企业的业务系统同时要满足三个条件的时候，市场上可能很难找到现成的、有效的、高质量的数字化解决方案：端到端优化+消费者主导+实时响应。
43. 企业决策分为企业家决策和经理人决策。经理人决策是是常规的、有规律可循的决策，可以制定出一套规则流程，可以用数据+算法进行描述的决策，是有确定性答案的决策。今天数字化一个重要方向就是在企业研发、设计、生产、运营、管理过程中的每一个决策行为，尝试用数据+算法的方式进行替代。
44. 并不是所有决策都可以通过数据+算法替代，比如企业家的决策。企业家的决策是基于未来洞察的决策，无法用数据+算法来描述，事前没有标准答案。
45. 数字化改变了人类认识和改造世界的方法论，人类社会认识客观世界方法论经历了四个阶段，从理论推理、实验验证，到数字空间模拟择优，进入“大数据驱动的技术发现”新阶段。
四、数字时代的创新：范式迁移
46. 数字化正义重新定义美国防部功能。2020年美国国防部发布了《数据战略》报告，美国国防部提出的愿景是，成为一个以数据为中心的机构，通过快速规模使用数据重构决策体系，来获得作战优势和提高效率。
47. 数字化重构了创新模式。创新是一个试错的过程，如技术方案试错、材料工艺试错客户需求试错、渠道创新试错和商业模式试错。数字化重构了试错的模式：试错的工具是数字孪生，试错方式实现了模拟择优，试错效率实现了高频迭代，试错实现了低成本导向。
48. 数字孪生正在构筑一条通向零成本的试错之路。试错都会有成本，但通过在数字孪生的虚拟世界中模拟物理世界运行，为新品开发、商业决策、产线调试、设备运维找到了一条新路。
49. 基于数据驱动的A/B TEST测试是数字原生企业的基本形态，最小化可行产品MVP（Minimum Viable Product）以最低成本、最高效率的方式完成技术功能验证、商业模式验证、客户反馈验证，包括市场营销、用户运营、产品迭代，如付费广告、应用商店、新用户注册、产品交互设计（UI）、功能、流程、推荐算法、排序算法、移动推送等。这是基于数据决策的典型场景。
50. 软件的本质是事物运行规律的代码化，软件的作用是构建数据流动的规则体系。
51. 马斯克之问？2011年马斯克自己公司的的网站上发表了一篇文章：为什么美国可以打败中国？他指是制造业成本，当年吹过的牛今天已经实现了，火箭发射成本只有中国的1/7。数字孪生发挥了重要作用。
52. 今天数字化转型主要挑战在于数字技术的供给能力不足。当物联网、大数据、云计算、人工智能、元宇宙等概念满天飞的时候，它给人们带来一种错觉，数字技术供给无处不在、无所不能。但事实上，今天的痛点和需求恰恰是全球数字技术和解决方案供给能力不足。
53. 数字化将我们带入高频竞争时代。今天，创新频率、迭代速度变得越来越快，产品研发、品牌打造及分销体系、运营分析周期、新产品上市周期等创新闭环周期大幅压缩，企业竞争的焦点在于提升各环节决策和执行频率，以应对需求的不确定性。
54. 高频竞争是面向智能的竞争，智能是一个主体对外部环境变化的响应能力，只有快速变化才能精准响应。正如英国管理专家查尔斯·汉迪所说，“当你知道该走向何处时，你往往已经没有机会了”。
55. 如果把时间尺度拉长，我们不必为“新概念雾霾”过分忧虑。因为无论众声如何喧哗，那些新概念、新技术、新产品、新企业终究会经历市场的洗礼，或淘汰，或重生，剩者为王，留下来的是被市场证明把握了历史方向和趋势的。
56. 数字生产力是在“数据+算力+算法”定义的世界里，知识创造者借助智能工具，基于能源、资源以及数据这一新生产要素，构建的一种认识、适应和改造自然的新能力。数字生产力意味着知识创造者的快速崛起，智能工具的广泛普及，数据要素成为核心要素。
57. 数字生产力意味着，人类认识改造自然的方法，实现了从实验验证到模拟择优，经济发展从规模经济到范围经济，就业模式从八小时制到自由连接体，企业性质从技术密集到数据密集，组织形态从公司制到“数字经济体”，消费者主权全面崛起，人类实现了全球数亿人跨时空的精准高效协作。
58. 从信息化到数字化，重要的变革是，数字系统需要从记录时代走向决策时代；从数字技术体系从静态系统演变成动态系统的过程；从一个有边界功能系统，演变成一个根据客户需求功能不断演进的系统；从一个闭环走向开环；从一个低频决策机制变成一个高频决策模式；从粗颗粒度演变成一个细颗粒的功能；从一个管控系统过渡到人机协同系统；企业整个形态从机械系统演变成生物系统；企业从跟客户一次博弈演变成共生关系。
五、数字技术与实体经济的融合之路
59. 产业升级的本质是生产要素成本攀升与产业价值链提升之间的一场马拉松式的竞赛，这场竞赛决定了一个国家能否迈过中等收入陷阱、能否冲破高收入之墙。
60. 制造与服务的融合，是实体经济走向高质量发展的必然选择，是产业价值链走向高端的必由之路。
61. 三次产业分类体系正在误导人们对经济规律的认知。10年前曾出版过一本书《制造业服务化路线图：机理、模式与选择》，书中序的标题是“修复失灵的仪表盘：关于三次产业分类体系的反思”。如果一个国家或区域的经济是一趟奔驰的列车，三次产业分类体系是一个仪表盘，但它正阻碍人们对经济规律的认识。
62. 传统的产业链体系正在被解构与重组，基于生产导向以链式+控制为核心的供应体系，正在向基于客户需求导向以网络+协同的现代产业体系转变，客户能够参与到研发、设计、生产、供应链的每一个环节。
63. 全球制造业正在面临四大转变：市场需求从产品导向向产品服务系统转变；竞争优势从规模化供给能力向个性化供给能力转变；客户交易从一次性短期交易向长期交易方式转变；更值得关注的是，高价值环节从制造环节为主向服务环节为主转变：从产业价值链来看，企业不可模仿、难以复制、不可完全转移的独特资源和能力是企业持续竞争优势的源泉。
64. 工业革命几百年来，制造业不变的追求是高效率、高质量、低成本和高满意度。区别在于，如何从从大规模生产走到个性化定制。
65. 美国是新实体经济的风向标。过去十年，美国GDP从相当于日本的2.6倍扩大到4.5倍，从相当于德国的4.6倍扩大到5.4倍；美国制造业GDP相当于日本的1.5倍扩大到2.4倍，相当于德国的2.5倍扩大到3.1倍。德日GDP和制造业规模与美差距仍在扩大。
66. 美国经济在全球领先地位的巩固和确立，是新实体经济经济的胜利，是数字技术深度、全面融入一、二、三产业的结果。
67. 从工业时代到数字时代，制造业的挑战在于如何实现供给导向的规模化生产向消费者驱动的定制化生产的演变，这需要全球制造加速构建万物互联、数据驱动、软件定义、平台支撑、智能主导的新模式，并迈向体系重构、动力变革、范式迁移的新阶段。
68. 人们对中国的传统制造能力有一种误解，以为这种制造能力无所不在，事实是即使是服装这种最传统的行业，高质量的柔性代工能力是一种稀缺资源。
69. 数字科技对传统产业改造的核心是，面向采购、制造、营销、零售的全产业链，重构企业运营各环节数据的流转体系和模式，实现从物理载体的低频、手工信息流到数字世界的高频、自动数据流，从基于人工经验的决策到基于数据+算法的决策，从局部系统的数据集成到端到端的数据融合，优化资源配置效率。
70. 供应链韧性是整个供应链体系受到外部强烈冲击时，快速恢复并有效响应外部需求变化的能力，核心是如何化解供应链体系的不确定性，就是供应链各个单元主体能够在确定的时间、确定的地方，按照确定的服务水平，将确定的货物交付到客户的手中。
六、工业互联网进入深水区的探索
71. 工业互联网的市场空间，不是替代旧市场，而是创造一个新市场；IT与OT系统连接融合，不是IT系统功能叠加的物理反应，而是技术体系和功能重构的化学反应；工业互联网的意义，不是传统IT方案的升级，而是重新定义技术价值、解决方案和商业模式。
72. 回顾200多年来工业革命，可以看到，控制系统经历了从机械控制、电子控制、软件控制、边缘优化、云端优化的演变过程。
73. 数字技术带来的革命性变化，是控制系统的软硬解耦，实现从机械控制到数字控制的演进。工业互联网的本质就是从一个单机智能到系统智能演变的过程。
74. 从产业分工的视角来看，工业互联网重构了知识创造、传播、复用新体系，促进了基于工业知识的算法市场崛起，推进了知识分工的形成和发展。知识作为一种商品参与到市场交易中，形成一批基于知识创造、交易的新型企业，构建基于知识创造、传播、复用的产业体系。
75. 工业互联网实现系统级的软硬解耦，在实践上的价值体现在四个方面：实时响应，考验的是决策优化响应的频率如何提高，如何应对不确定性，如何走向高频竞争时代；能力复用，基于技术架构的迁移，塑造企业全新的、可针对需求重复利用的能力体系；全局优化，制造体系的智能化、数字化、互通化程度从从设备级跨越为系统级；生态迭代，基于云边协同、微服务的组件，更多的工业新知识、经验、方法、模型在全新体系中的重建、复用、重构，不断重复，最终构建成为IT/OT融合下的新的工业生态。
76. 一个强大的工业PaaS平台，应当是工业技术原理、行业知识、基础工艺、研发工具的规则化、模块化、软件化，是工业知识数字化模型的载体。
77. 工业互联网平台能力跃升的核心是如何实现“Project—Product—Platform”的转化，以及转化的速度、效率和服务能力。
78. 从长周期的视角来看，评估工业互联网平台核心能力的一个重要观察视角是如何通过做一个个项目（Project），沉淀成通用的软件产品（Product），并将这些产品以平台化（Platform）的方式来开发、部署和运营。
79. 工业互联网困境在于，在从项目公司—产品公司—平台公司能力跃升的过程中，有地图，但没有指南针。
80. 如何评估一个工业互联网平台的进化能力？必须回到工业互联网的本质及核心竞争力来源上，必须回到IT技术与OT技术融合的底层逻辑上来思考，必须回到工业革命以来关于这个世界是如何被“控制”这一命题上来。
81. 工业互联网的决策者总临两难选择（Tradeoff）：企业战略定位要解决短期生存问题，还是选择长期可持续技术路线和商业模式？组织文化是要迁就惯性思维，容忍组织、管理、运营的路径依赖，还是加快商业生态组织、运营、文化升级？是要容忍传统技术开发、部署、运营模式路径依赖，以及与其相适应的人才、工具和方法，还是基于云原生技术体系实现人才、工具、方法的全面升级？产品形态选择上，是要找到IT与OT融合的项目级商业闭环，还是要打磨一款杀手级的平台化产品？舍得投入在PaaS+SaaS化产品打磨。这才是考验企业家决策关键节点。
七、数字化：转型与原生并行
82. 当今天我们讨论到“数字化”这三个字的时候，后面跟着两个关键词：一个叫“转型”，一个叫“原生”。所谓的转型是企业不断升级自己的产品形态、销售渠道、商业模式、运营机制、组织文化乃至发展战略，从A这个地方出发到B这个数字化土壤比较肥沃的地方。
83. 如果说传统企业的数字化转型就像一场学游泳的竞赛，有一批教练教你怎么去呼吸、怎么去蹬腿、水里怎么转身，那么数字原生企业一出生的时候就长了一个数字化的“腮”，知道如何用数字化的方式去做商业决策、产品创新、渠道建设，构建自己线上线下一体化的数字驱动业务体系。
84. 数字原生企业有三个特征：在决策机制上，构建基于客户需求洞察实时感知能力，实现了客户需求的可触达、可感知、可分析、可服务，并形成了基于客户需求实时洞察的产品创新、智能制造、客户运营、供应链管理决策。数字基础设施上，构建起基于云计算、边缘计算、AIOT、中台化等新一代技术的基础设施。商业上，展示了作为一种新物种的持续高增长的强大爆发力和竞争耐力。
85. 数字技术对于提升企业核心竞争力到底有什么用？它给我们的启示是，数字化永远是一场增量革命。
86. 企业的核心竞争力在于持续不断的进化能力，围绕着市场需求不断地创新。竞争对手想学的时候，发现领先者已经进化出了一个新的业态。
87. 有人给巴菲特的投资理念写了一本书，叫《巴菲特的护城河》。马斯克说，固定的护城河是一个非常愚蠢的概念，持续不断的进化能力是特斯拉的护城河。
88. 麦肯锡、埃森哲告诉你，数字化项目失败率80%；权威专家告诉你，数字化不是选择题，是必答题。面对一个数字化的投资项目，董事长们如何决策？
89. 我们需要从另外一个角度思考企业数字化ROI问题：“确定效应”与“反射效应”。“确定效应”是指在收益确定与“赌一把”之间，很多人会选择收益确定。“反射效应”是指确定损失与“赌一把”之间，人会选择“赌一把”。
90. 很多时候，不转型的风险是确定的，转型的收益是不确定。很多时候，数字化转型的动力不是因为收益可以预期，而是不转型的风险和成本难以忍受。很多时候，转型的发动机是不CIO、CEO，而是竞争对手的CIO、CEO。
91. “低代码+平台”正在为中小企业数字化转型找到一条新路，化解没有钱、没有人、没有技术的“三无”难题。对于企业业务系统而言，“低代码+平台”可以是一道下午茶，也可以是一顿法国大餐。
八、数字化：开启一场组织层面的“转基因工程”
92. 2002年美国社会学家写了一本书《热浪：芝加哥空难的社会剖析》，作者提出了一个问题：运行在强规章、惯于处理确定性事件的传统组织，能否有效地应对一次突发事件？很多时候面对一个不断变化的市场，企业按照原有的工作方式、思维方式操作，可能没什么错，但是在一个高度不确定性的环境中，失误将不可避免。
93. 基于确定性的组织行为惯性，是造成突发事件应对失误的元凶。
94. 数字时代竞争的关键是高频打低频，一个组织的常态与突发应对的区别在于：常态化的低频决策机制适应不了突发事件中的高频决策需求。
95. 数字化转型，始于技术，终于组织。没有组织的变革，就没有数字化的未来。但无论组织如何重构，唯一不变的是，如何激发每一个人的积极性、主动性和创新性。
96. 面对不确定性，面对数字化转型，所有的组织都要思考一个问题：如何从工业时代的组织向数字时代的组织切换。
97. 如何构建一个组织的高频、多中心、短链路决策机制，是一个组织从工业时代向数字时代切换的必由之路。
98. 面向数字经济时代，所有的组织要掀起一场“转基因工程”，掀起一场组织文化的转基因工程。只有完成了组织层面上的转基因工程，企业才能够迈入数字经济时代。因为数字经济时代加速了组织的分化。
99. 关于组织与系统的关系，需要理解康威定律（Conway’s Law）：“系统的技术架构会是组织架构的复刻。”
100. 人们往往低估了传统认知惯性的对创新的束缚。诺基亚的故事不会结束。奥迪前技术研发董事 Peter Mertens 《终将血流成河——我们都睡着了》 “为了应对挑战者，旧巨头们转过头去询问他们最依赖的供应链，是否能开发与特斯拉类似的产品？供应链的回答是肯定的，然而到了 2020 年，世界上最强大的车企研发部门才造出可以媲美特斯拉2012年作品的汽车。”
翻译：
Most of the time, the risks of not transforming are certain, and the benefits of transforming are uncertain. The impetus for digital transformation is not because the benefits are predictable, but because the risks and costs of not transforming are unbearable.
Digitization is timely
1. The development history of human society is a history of living space migration. After traversing the forests of the hunting age, the plains of the farming age, and the cities of the industrial age, humans are entering a new space — the digital space. Digitization is a great migration. On the road of evolution, migration is an instinct and is evolving into a core ability for survival.
2. We need to join hands to find the “Noah’s Ark” leading to the digital world. In this magnificent and risky voyage to the new digital world, our dream is to become the people standing on the top of the mast of “Noah’s Ark” looking out into the distance, discovering the oasis and finding the other side of the digital world.
3. The “concrete” that builds the digital world is chips, algorithms, data, software, networks, sensors, databases, cloud platforms, as well as people’s knowledge of the past laws of the world and imagination of the future, which constitute the infrastructure of the digital space.
4. The next decade will be the installation period of digital infrastructure. One of the most important themes of the global digital economy is the restructuring, switching and migration of digital infrastructure, as well as business eco-re-engineering based on new digital infrastructure.
Digitization is timely
5. Having experienced the “Three Gorges Era” of passion and strong competition, the consumer Internet is accelerating its deep integration with the industrial Internet and entering the “Yangzijiang Era” of quiet water and deep flow. The digital river is wider, deeper, more stable and bigger, and its role as a guide, foundation and overarching is more prominent.
6. Digitalization has become a watershed in the development of countries, industries and enterprises in the era of great changes, accelerating the loss of core competitive advantages. American technology companies are worth more than all listed European companies, up from a quarter 15 years ago; IBM’s market value hasn’t changed much in the past decade, while Microsoft’s has risen 20-fold. NextEra, an American wind company, has a bigger market capitalisation than ExxonMobil and a tenth of its revenues.
7. China’s digitalization must be unique. China is the world’s largest consumer Internet power, social zero aggregate power, digital consumer power and manufacturing power.
8. Small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) with innovative vitality continue to emerge, which is the core indicator to measure the economic prosperity of a country or region. The German economy and energy minister once said that “it is worrying that in the past 20 years there have been almost no new innovative companies in Germany, whereas in the past 20 years the United States and China have produced a number of world-leading technology companies.” The lost 30 years in Japan are the lost 30 years of small business growth opportunities.
Digitization is timely
9. The symbol of China’s industrial digitalization from following up to running and running is not the realization of Copy to China to Copy from China in specific digitalization fields, but China’s ability to reconstruct the digitalization concept system. This ability should be based on the continuous learning of global leaders’ concepts, theories and methods on digitalization, as well as taking root in China’s latest technological innovation and industrial practice, to build their own cognitive system and methodology for digital transformation, and find a unique development model suitable for China.
10. Digital technology platforms are the main battleground for innovation in the global technology industry. Since the Industrial Revolution, the rise of great powers such as Britain, Germany and the United States has been due to their successful development of unique scientific and technological innovation systems. Today’s great power competition is, to a large extent, reflected in the competition between various technology platforms and the innovation systems hosted by their ecosystems.
11. Digital technology platforms provide a new mechanism for accurate docking and efficient iterative verification between scientific and technological innovation and demand, and have become incubators and accelerators for the research and development, diffusion and industrialization of new technologies, opening up a new way for innovation to cross the “valley of death”.
Digital transformation: Deconstruction and reorganization
12. The logical starting point for digital transformation requires dramatic changes. Digitalization has armed not only the supply side, but also the demand side. What today’s consumers need is a personalized, real-time, scenario-oriented, content-oriented and interactive consumption and service experience.
13. Digitalization has armed consumers with more right of expression, right of speech, right of participation and right of choice. This is an era of rising consumer sovereignty, but the supply side is not fully prepared for this change. What you lack is not customers, but interaction with customers.
14. Today, demand is not simply fragmented, but dusted. Fragmentation is visible demand falling on the ground into fragments, dusting is invisible demand granulated.
15. Faced with the dramatic changes in the demands of the digital age, all enterprises will rethink and redefine themselves, “who I am” and “how I create value for customers”. In the future, only customer operators can survive. They need real-time insight into customer demand and real-time satisfaction of consumer demand. Delivering a product is just the beginning of a service; continuous interaction is the norm.
Digital transformation: Deconstruction and reorganization
16. Digitization is to reconstruct the orbit of atoms in a sea of bits, use bits to “guide” atoms and use weak electricity to “control” strong electricity, which will drive the digital twin of cyberspace to approach the real physical space infinitely, from atoms, components, products, production lines to services, from pipe networks, buildings, cities, earth to galaxies, from genes, cells, hearts, brains to human bodies. From materials science and life science to manufacturing and construction, human beings are constructing digital twins in the digital world.
17. The optimal allocation of resources based on “physical entity + digital twin” will become the basic form of digital economy, realizing mutual mapping, real-time interaction and efficient collaboration of various elements and activities in physical space and digital space, as well as on-demand response, fast iteration and dynamic optimization of resource allocation and operation within the system.
18. The realization of full-link digitization is the fundamental way to achieve accurate matching of supply and demand. Traditional supply and demand in the digital age has evolved from a slow and rigid mechanical system to a dynamic evolving biological system. Only by centering on consumers, putting consumer demand information before the generation of new consumption, constructing end-to-end digital solutions, timely capturing market trends based on data insight, and reconstructing supply system, can the accurate matching of supply and demand be fundamentally realized.
19. In the future, all enterprises will be customer operators, which have three characteristics: customer resources become the core assets of enterprises, realize full-link digital integration and real-time response of full-link.
Digital transformation: Deconstruction and reorganization
20. Real-time insight and meeting customer needs, enterprises need to build a new system based on data + algorithm driven real-time demand response and real-time resource optimization, the core of which is four keywords: online + closed-loop + high frequency + global.
21. Facing the big change of digital transformation, enterprises need to realize three changes in their thinking:
First, we need to move from responding to change with constant change to responding to change with constant change, and responding to uncertainty with uncertainty. We need to abandon redundant and static thinking, and move towards precise and dynamic thinking.
The second is to build new capabilities through incremental revolution. Software, equipment, process optimization, and management reform will eventually be transformed into new capabilities of enterprises.
Third, from product providers to customer operators, through products and services to establish a “strong relationship” with customers, can become 24 hours online, understand, forecast, meet customer needs of the “customer operators”.
Digital transformation: Deconstruction and reorganization
22. Become a customer operator’s three axes: Deep Powder 2.0 offers three key steps on how to operate customers.
The core layer targets the niche groups that have strong demands for product functions and emotions. The influence layer should meet four conditions: professionalism, influence, love to try new products and love to share. The influence spreads from the core layer to the influence layer and the outer layer.
Emotionalization is the key to user operation. Emotional dimension reduction is emotion, it’s a short-term goal; Emotional dimension is value, which is the long-term pursuit direction;
The sense of participation activates the power source of users. The whole process of products, services, brands and marketing should be opened up and continuously interact with users.
23. There are digital roads in the world: one can buy digital, people can buy robots, CNC machine tools, ERP, CRM, MES, all kinds of software can be bought. One is unbuyable digitisation, where you can buy equipment but not technology. You can buy software, but not data; You can buy advice, but not core competence. The thing to think about is, anything you can buy, your competitors can buy. Self-evolution ability is the key to build core competitive advantage.
24. Digital transformation is not just about arming technology to the teeth, but about integrating technology into the DNA of the enterprise, starting a never-ending journey of capability evolution.
The logic of digital technology evolution from the perspective of Long Period
25. The Industrial Revolution was in fact two revolutions: the power revolution and the control revolution. Over the past 200 years or so since the Industrial Revolution, breakthroughs in control technology have been behind great products. Watt invented the steam engine, the Wright brothers invented the airplane, Industry 3.0 logo technology and the industrial Internet. The core is to solve the problem of control. The history of industrial revolution is the history of continuous evolution, upgrading and iteration of control technology. Studying the evolution history of control technology is not only an inevitable requirement to understand the evolution law of industrial revolution, but also a key to observe and understand the complicated development logic of technology in the current digital era.
26. In the past 60 years, from mainframes, microcomputers, smart phones, cloud computing, data center, smart cars to 5G, despite the different forms of technology and products in different times, the logic of the underlying evolution of technology is consistent, that is, the decoupling of soft and hard control systems, from closed to open, promotes the change of control in scene, space, scale and efficiency. Its common logic is hardware universality + service programmability.
27. One industrial revolution, one generation of infrastructure. Each industrial and technological revolution lasts about 50 to 60 years, with the first 30 years being the period of infrastructure installation and the second 30 years being the period of infrastructure expansion. In the digital age, the curtain has just been lifted on the new infrastructure centered on cloud computing.
28. The cloud of Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Ali independently accounts for 75% of the market, and there is no large-scale commercial public service based on open source technology in the world.
The logic of digital technology evolution from the perspective of Long Period
29. The value of cloud computing is far underestimated. The significance of cloud computing is not to reduce IT costs or improve operational efficiency.
More than 10 years ago, Amazon had a vision that “students would have access to the same infrastructure as the world’s largest companies from their dorm rooms.” Today, that goal has been achieved.
Cloud computing provides an entrepreneur with the opportunity to enjoy the most advanced development environment facilities, realizes the large-scale low-cost diffusion of new technologies, and more importantly promotes the accurate matching of innovation supply and demand, as well as provides feasible market solutions for the flow of data elements.
30. The digital age requires a rethink of the relationship between basic research and technological development. In 1945, Van Neva Bush gave the president “Science: The Endless Frontier,” which emphasized the importance of basic scientific research and led to the creation of the National Natural Science Foundation. However, its sequelae lie in that the classification of basic research (science) and applied research (technology) misleads people’s understanding of the laws of science and technology. Only basic research can discover new knowledge, and applied research is only the application of knowledge.
In fact, science, technology and engineering are developing in parallel, not in absolute order, especially in the cloud native era. Basic research and applied research are entering the “discovery-invention cycle” iteration.
The logic of digital technology evolution from the perspective of Long Period
31. The history of the development of cloud computing shows that it is not poverty that limits the imagination, but wealth.
The biggest driving force for Amazon to develop cloud computing is that the high operating cost is unbearable, the cash flow is depleted, the stock price drops by 80% at most, poverty leads to change, and difficulty leads to change, which is the biggest driving force for the development of public cloud.
Google is the originator of cloud computing concepts and the advocate of core technology concepts. As a “rich kid” with better cash flow, the technology leader did not evolve into the pioneer of public cloud commercialization.
32. There are two kinds of cloud computing in the world: the “350-kilometer ‘high speed train’, which can achieve 30% CPU utilization in the data center; One is a “60km ‘green car'” with less than 5% CPU utilization in the data center. If the CPU usage efficiency of servers in Chinese data centers is increased from 5% to 25%, servers can be saved 300 billion yuan and electricity costs can be saved 80 billion kilowatt hours, equivalent to one Three Gorges.
33. The failure of EU Cloud Computing Initiative Gaia: Open source technology system cannot achieve EU cloud computing development goals. In June 2020, the EU launched the GAIA-X program, which is committed to building public data infrastructure for Europe, hoping that the EU would not rely on cloud computing companies from the United States and China. However, two years later, the EU found this goal difficult to achieve, and invited Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Alibaba Cloud to participate in the GAIA-X program again. The common feature of these four companies is to build their own cloud computing technology system.
The logic of digital technology evolution from the perspective of Long Period
34. The public cloud is the “land” of the second great age of navigation, which can turn small puddles and lakes into big rivers and oceans. It is the cradle of groundbreaking new technologies and great enterprises in the digital age, such as SNOWFLAKE. Cloud computing power is defining the new boundaries of global competition among great powers.
35. The era of open automation is coming. The integration of software and hardware automatic control system is constantly decoupling. A closed automation system that is highly dependent on proprietary systems, inefficient systems, expensive systems and slow to update is evolving into an open automation system that can respond quickly to customer needs.
People may underestimate the far-reaching impact of open automation. The traditional proprietary and inefficient closed control system is evolving to plug and play and open automation system, which will bring high speed, agility, flexibility and efficiency in the design, implementation and operation of automation engineering, and also bring changes in the control technology system and even the production and operation system.
36. In the next 10 years, there will be two routes and modes for the integration of OT technology and IT technology. First, on the basis of the unchanged existing technology, product, network and system architecture, data fusion will be driven by unified standards, which can be called “stock grafting fusion”. Second, the underlying technology systems of OT and IT are deconstructed based on cloud edge, and then repackaged and integrated on the basis of deconstruction, which can be called “digital native integration”.
The logic of digital technology evolution from the perspective of Long Period
37. From an economic perspective, hardware generality follows economies of scale and service programmability follows economies of scope. Is to let fast changing software unshackle, become faster, to cope with the uncertainty of various requirements; Make the high utilization of hardware gradually unified, so that the utilization becomes higher and higher.
38. What is digital, networked and intelligent? Digitalization is able to run a physical world in the digital space expressed in bits, solving the problem of digital information has and has not; Networking solves the problem of whether the data can flow between multiple systems. The problem solved by intelligence is whether the data can flow automatically.
39. What is an automotive “recall” from the perspective of hard-soft decoupling? Musk says the word “recall” needs to be recalled, because for Tettesla, recall = OTA, you don’t have to take the car to the 4S store to get the hardware replaced and repaired. This is the best interpretation of hardware universality and service programmability.
40. Digitization has brought about two revolutions: the decision-making revolution and the tool revolution. Marx said, “The difference between different economic ages lies not in what is produced, but in how it is produced and with what means of labor.” From agricultural society, industrial society to information society, human production tools have evolved from hand tools and energy conversion tools to today’s intelligent tools, such as CNC machine tools, robots and other tools to replace manual labor, as well as CAD, CAE and other tools to serve mental workers, which is a tool revolution.
The logic of digital technology evolution from the perspective of Long Period
41. Digitalization brings the restructuring of enterprise decision-making system. The core of enterprise competition is the competition of resource allocation efficiency, and the core of resource allocation advantage lies in scientific decision-making. Digital transformation is to replace empirical decision-making with “data + algorithm” decision-making, and the core lies in the automatic flow of data — the right data, at the right time, in the right way to the right people and machines.
42. Why do industry leaders such as Midea, Tesla, Hema, Rhinoceros and Wumart have to take the lead in developing core business systems themselves? Today, when an enterprise’s business system meets three requirements at once, it may be difficult to find an off-the-shelf, effective, and high-quality digital solution in the market: end-to-end optimization + consumer leadership + real-time response.
43. Corporate decision-making is divided into entrepreneur decision-making and manager decision-making. Managers’ decisions are conventional and rule-based decisions that can be formulated with a set of rules and processes. Decisions that can be described with data + algorithms are decisions with deterministic answers. Today, an important direction of digitalization is to replace every decision behavior in the process of R&D, design, production, operation and management with data + algorithm.
44. Not all decisions can be replaced by data + algorithms, such as those made by entrepreneurs. An entrepreneur’s decision is based on future insight, which cannot be described by data + algorithm. There is no standard answer in advance.
45. Digitization has changed the methodology of human cognition and transformation of the world. The methodology of human cognition of the objective world has gone through four stages, from theoretical reasoning, experimental verification, to digital space simulation selection, and into a new stage of “big data-driven technology discovery”.
Innovation in the Digital Age: Paradigm Shift
46. Digital Justice Redefines dod Functions. In 2020, the U.S. Department of Defense released its “Data Strategy” report. The vision of the U.S. Department of Defense is to become a data-centric organization that can gain operational advantage and improve efficiency through the rapid and large-scale use of data to restructure decision-making systems.
47. Digitalization restructures innovation. Innovation is a process of trial and error, such as the trial and error of technical scheme, material process, customer demand, channel innovation and business model. Digitalization reconstructs the model of trial and error: the tool of trial and error is digital twin, the method of trial and error realizes analog selection, the efficiency of trial and error realizes high frequency iteration, and the trial and error realizes low cost orientation.
48. Digital twinning is building a path of trial and error to zero cost. Trial and error will have costs, but by simulating the physical world in the virtual world of digital twin, it has found a new way for new product development, business decision, production line debugging, equipment operation and maintenance.
49. A/B TEST based on data is the basic form of digital native enterprise. The Minimum Viable Product (MVP) can validate the technical function, business model and customer feedback in the most cost-effective and efficient way. This includes marketing, user operations, product iteration, such as paid advertising, app stores, new user registration, product interaction design (UI), features, processes, recommendation algorithms, ranking algorithms, mobile push, etc. This is a typical scenario for data-based decisions.
Innovation in the Digital Age: Paradigm Shift
50. The essence of software is the codification of the operation rules of things, and the function of software is to build the rules system of data flow.
51. Musk’s Question? In 2011, Musk’s own company website published an article asking Why the U.S. can beat China. He was referring to manufacturing costs. The vaunted cow has been realized today. The cost of launching a rocket is only 1/7 of China’s. Digital twinning plays an important role.
52. The major challenge of digital transformation today is the inadequate supply capacity of digital technologies. When concepts such as the Internet of Things, big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and the meta-universe are flying around, it gives people the illusion that digital technology supplies are ubiquitous and omnipotent. But in fact, today’s pain point and demand is precisely the global supply capacity of digital technologies and solutions.
53. Digitization brings us into the era of high-frequency competition. Today, the innovation frequency and iteration speed are getting faster and faster, and the innovation closed-loop cycle such as product research and development, brand building and distribution system, operation analysis cycle, new product launching cycle and so on has been significantly compressed. The focus of enterprise competition is to improve the decision-making and execution frequency of all links to cope with the uncertainty of demand.
54. High-frequency competition is intelligence-oriented competition. Intelligence is a subject’s ability to respond to changes in the external environment. As Charles Handy, a British management expert, said, “By the time you know where to go, you’ve often run out of opportunities.”
Innovation in the Digital Age: Paradigm Shift
55. If we stretch out the time scale, we need not worry too much about the “new concept haze”. No matter how loud the public is, new concepts, new technologies, new products and new enterprises will eventually go through the baptism of the market, or be eliminated or reborn. Those who remain are king, and those who remain are proven by the market to grasp the historical direction and trend.
56. In a world defined by “data + computing + algorithms”, knowledge creators build a new capacity to understand, adapt and transform nature with the help of intelligent tools, based on the new production factors of energy, resources and data. Digital productivity means the rapid rise of knowledge creators, the widespread use of intelligent tools, and the core factor of data.
Innovation in the Digital Age: Paradigm Shift
57. Digital productivity means that human understanding of the transformation of nature from experimental verification to simulation of the best, economic development from economies of scale to economies of scope, employment pattern from eight-hour system to free connectivity, enterprise nature from technology-intensive to data-intensive, organizational form from corporate system to “digital economy”, consumer sovereignty is fully rising. The human race has realized precise and efficient collaboration across time and space among hundreds of millions of people around the world.
58. From informatization to digitization, the important change is that digital systems need to move from the age of recording to the age of decision-making; The process of digital technology system from static system to dynamic system; From a functional system with boundaries to a system with evolving functions based on customer requirements; From a closed loop to an open loop; From a low frequency decision-making mechanism to a high frequency decision-making mode; From coarse particle size to a fine particle function; From a control system to a man-machine collaborative system; The whole form of enterprise changes from mechanical system to biological system; Enterprises from a game with customers evolved into a symbiotic relationship.
The integration of digital technology and real economy
59. The essence of industrial upgrading is a marathon race between the rising cost of production factors and the upgrading of industrial value chain, which determines whether a country can break through the middle-income trap or the high-income wall.
60. The integration of manufacturing and service is the inevitable choice for high-quality development of the real economy and the only way to move up the industrial value chain.
61. The tripartite industry classification system is misleading people’s understanding of economic laws. Ten years ago, he published a book entitled “Servitization of Manufacturing: Mechanism, Model and Choice”. The title of the preface of the book was “Fixing the Broken Dashboard: Reflections on the Three Industrial Classification Systems”. If the economy of a country or region is a Mercedes-Benz train, the three industrial classification system is a dashboard, but it is hindering people’s understanding of economic laws.
62. The traditional industrial chain system is being deconstructed and reorganized. The production-oriented supply system with chain + control as the core is being transformed into a modern industrial system based on customer demand-oriented and network + collaboration, in which customers can participate in every link of R&D, design, production and supply chain.
The integration of digital technology and real economy
63. The global manufacturing industry is facing four major changes: the shift in market demand from product oriented to product service system; The competitive advantage changes from large-scale supply ability to personalized supply ability; Customer transaction from one-time short-term transaction to long-term transaction mode; It is worth paying more attention to the transformation of high-value links from manufacturing links to service links: from the perspective of industrial value chain, unique resources and capabilities that cannot be imitated, copied or completely transferred are the source of sustainable competitive advantages of enterprises.
64. For centuries since the Industrial Revolution, the constant pursuit of manufacturing has been high efficiency, high quality, low cost and high satisfaction. The difference is how to go from mass production to customization.
65. The United States is the bellwether of the new real economy. Over the past decade, US GDP has expanded from 2.6 times Japan’s to 4.5 times, and from 4.6 times Germany’s to 5.4 times. The U.S. manufacturing GDP has expanded from 1.5 times that of Japan to 2.4 times that of Japan, and from 2.5 times that of Germany to 3.1 times that of Germany. The gap between German and Japanese GDP and manufacturing scale is still widening.
66. The consolidation and establishment of the United States’ leading position in the global economy is a triumph of the new real economy and the deep and comprehensive integration of digital technologies into primary, secondary and tertiary industries.
The integration of digital technology and real economy
67. From the industrial age to the digital age, the challenge for the manufacturing industry lies in how to realize the evolution from supply-oriented large-scale production to consumer-driven customized production, which requires global manufacturing to accelerate the construction of a new mode of interconnection of everything, data-driven, software-defined, platform-supported and intelligence-led, and to move into a new stage of system restructuring, dynamic transformation and paradigm migration.
68. There is a misconception that traditional manufacturing capacity in China is ubiquitous, but the fact is that high-quality flexible foundry capacity is a scarce resource in even the most traditional industries, such as clothing.
69. The core of the transformation of traditional industries by digital technology is to restructure the data flow system and mode of each link of enterprise operation for the whole industrial chain of procurement, manufacturing, marketing and retail, so as to realize the low frequency and manual information flow of physical carrier to the high frequency and automatic data flow of the digital world, and from the decision based on human experience to the decision based on data + algorithm. From local system data integration to end-to-end data fusion, optimize resource allocation efficiency.
70. Supply chain resilience refers to the ability of the whole supply chain system to quickly recover and effectively respond to changes in external demand when the whole supply chain system is subjected to strong external impacts. The core is how to resolve the uncertainty of the supply chain system, that is, the main body of each unit of the supply chain can deliver certain goods to customers at certain times, in certain places and at certain service levels.
Exploration of the Industrial Internet into the Deep water Zone
71. The market space of the industrial Internet is not to replace the old market, but to create a new market; The connection and fusion of IT and OT systems is not a physical reaction of function superposition of IT systems, but a chemical reaction of technical system and function reconstruction. The significance of the industrial Internet is not the upgrading of traditional IT solutions, but the redefinition of technology values, solutions and business models.
72. Reviewing the industrial revolution over the past 200 years, it can be seen that the control system has undergone the evolution process from mechanical control, electronic control, software control, edge optimization and cloud optimization.
73. The revolutionary change brought about by digital technology is the decoupling of hard and soft control systems, realizing the evolution from mechanical control to digital control. The nature of the industrial Internet is the evolution process from a single machine intelligence to system intelligence.
74. From the perspective of industrial division of labor, industrial Internet reconstructs the new system of knowledge creation, dissemination and reuse, promotes the rise of algorithm market based on industrial knowledge, and promotes the formation and development of knowledge division of labor. As a kind of commodity, knowledge is involved in market trading, forming a group of new enterprises based on knowledge creation and trading, and building an industrial system based on knowledge creation, dissemination and reuse.
Exploration of the Industrial Internet into the Deep water Zone
75. Industrial Internet achieves system-level soft and hard decoupling, and its practical value is reflected in four aspects: real-time response, which tests how to improve the frequency of decision optimization response, how to deal with uncertainty, and how to move towards the era of high-frequency competition; Capability reuse, based on the transfer of technical architecture, shaping the enterprise’s new ability system, can be reused according to the demand; Global optimization, the degree of intelligence, digitization, interconnectivity of manufacturing system from the equipment level to the system level; Ecological iteration, based on cloud edge collaboration and micro-service components, rebuilds, reuses and reconstructs more new industrial knowledge, experience, methods and models in the new system, and keeps repeating, and finally builds a new industrial ecology under the integration of IT/OT.
76. A powerful industrial PaaS platform should be the regularization, modularization and software of industrial technology principles, industrial knowledge, basic processes and research and development tools, as well as the carrier of the digital model of industrial knowledge.
77. The core of the improvement of industrial Internet Platform capability is how to realize the transformation of “Project — Product — platform”, as well as the transformation speed, efficiency and service capability.
78. From a long-term perspective, an important observation perspective to evaluate the core capabilities of industrial Internet platforms is how to do one Project after another, precipitate into general software products, and develop, deploy and operate these products in a platforming way.
Exploration of the Industrial Internet into the Deep water Zone
79. The dilemma of the industrial Internet is that in its leap from project company-product company-platform company capability, there is a map, but no compass.
80. How to evaluate the evolutionary capability of an industrial Internet platform? We must return to the nature of the industrial Internet and the source of its core competitiveness, we must return to the underlying logic of the integration of IT technology and OT technology, and we must return to the proposition of how the world has been “controlled” since the Industrial Revolution.
81. Decision makers of industrial Internet always face Tradeoff: Should the enterprise strategic positioning solve the problem of short-term survival, or choose the long-term sustainable technology route and business model? Should organizational culture accommodate conventional thinking and tolerate the path dependence of organization, management and operation, or accelerate the upgrading of business ecological organization, operation and culture? Should we tolerate the dependence of traditional technology development, deployment, operation mode and path, as well as the corresponding talents, tools and methods, or realize the comprehensive upgrade of talents, tools and methods based on the cloud native technology system? In terms of product form selection, should we find a project-level commercial closed loop that integrates IT and OT, or polish a killer platform product? Willing to invest in PaaS+SaaS products polishing. This is the test entrepreneur decision key node.
Digitization: Transformation and native parallel
82. When we talk about the word “digital” today, it is followed by two keywords: one is called “transformation”, the other is called “native”. The so-called transformation is that an enterprise keeps upgrading its product form, sales channels, business model, operation mechanism, organizational culture and even development strategy, starting from A to B, where the digital soil is relatively fertile.
83. If the digital transformation of traditional enterprises is like a competition to learn how to swim, with a group of coaches teaching you how to breathe, how to push your legs, and how to turn around in the water, then digital native enterprises are born with a digital “gill” that knows how to make business decisions, product innovation, and channel construction in a digital way. Build its own digital-driven business system integrating online and offline.
84. Digital native enterprises have three characteristics: In the decision-making mechanism, they build the real-time perception ability based on customer demand insight, realize the touch, perception, analysis and service of customer demand, and form the decision-making of product innovation, intelligent manufacturing, customer operation and supply chain management based on the real-time insight of customer demand. On the basis of digital infrastructure, we will build infrastructure based on cloud computing, edge computing, AIOT, mid-platform and other new-generation technologies. Commercially, it has demonstrated strong explosive power and competitive endurance as a new species with sustained high growth.
85. What is the use of digital technology to enhance the core competitiveness of enterprises? The lesson is that digitisation is always an incremental revolution.
Digitization: Transformation and native parallel
86. The core competitiveness of an enterprise lies in the ability to continuously evolve and innovate around market demands. When competitors tried to learn, they found that the leader had evolved a new business format.
87. Someone wrote a book about Buffett’s investment philosophy called Buffett’s Moat. Musk said a fixed moat is a very silly concept, and the ability to continuously evolve is Tesla’s moat.
88. McKinsey and Accenture tell you that digital projects have an 80% failure rate; Authoritative experts tell you that digitization is not a choice, it is a must answer. Faced with a digital investment project, how do chairmen make decisions?
89. . We need to think about enterprise digital ROI from another perspective: “certainty effect” versus “reflection effect”. The “certainty effect” refers to the fact that, given the choice between certainty and “taking a gamble,” many people choose certainty. The “reflex effect” refers to the choice between a certain loss and a “gamble”.
90. In many cases, the risks of non-transformation are certain and the benefits of transformation are uncertain. In many cases, the impetus for digital transformation is not because the benefits are predictable, but because the risks and costs of not transforming are unbearable. Most of the time, the engine of transformation is not the CIO, CEO, but the competitor’s CIO, CEO.
91. “Low code + platform” is finding a new way for the digital transformation of smes, resolving the “three nots” problem of no money, no people and no technology. For enterprise business systems, “low code + platform” can be an afternoon tea or a French meal.
Digitization: Start an organization-level “GM Project”
92. In 2002, American sociologists wrote a book, Heat Wave: Social Analysis of the Chicago Air Crash. The author raised a question: Can traditional organizations, which operate on strong regulations and are used to dealing with deterministic events, effectively deal with an emergency? In many cases, faced with a constantly changing market, there may be nothing wrong with enterprises operating in the original way of working and thinking, but in a highly uncertain environment, mistakes will be inevitable.
93. The inertia of organization behavior based on certainty is the culprit of the failure to respond to emergencies.
94. The key to competition in the digital age is to fight low frequency with high frequency. The difference between an organization’s normal response and emergency response lies in that the normal low-frequency decision-making mechanism cannot meet the needs of high-frequency decision-making in emergencies.
95. Digital transformation begins with technology and ends with organization. There is no digital future without organizational change. But no matter how the organization is restructured, the only constant is how to stimulate everyone’s enthusiasm, initiative and innovation.
96. In the face of uncertainty and digital transformation, all organizations have to think about a problem: how to transition from the organization of the industrial age to the organization of the digital age.
Digitization: Start an organization-level “GM Project”
97. How to construct a high-frequency, multi-center, short-link decision-making mechanism of an organization is the only way for an organization to switch from the industrial age to the digital age.
98. Facing the age of digital economy, all organizations should launch a “transgenic project”, a transgenic project of organizational culture. Only when GM engineering is completed at the organizational level can enterprises step into the era of digital economy. Because the digital economy has accelerated the fragmentation of organizations.
99. The relationship between organizations and systems requires an understanding of Conway’s Law: “The technical architecture of a system is a duplicate of the organizational architecture.”
100. People often underestimate the constraints of traditional cognitive inertia on innovation. The Nokia story is not over. Peter Mertens, former director of technology Research and Development at Audi, “There Will Be Rivers of Blood — We All fell Asleep” “In response to the challenger, the old giants turned around and asked the supply chain they relied on most, could they develop something similar to Tesla? The supply chain says yes, but it will take 2020 for the most powerful R&D departments in the world to build a car comparable to what Tesla built in 2012.”
本文由数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）转载而成，来源：阿里研究院 ，作者：安筱鹏；编辑/翻译：数字化转型网宁檬树；审核：数字化转型网默然。
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