2023年已经过去大半，这半年各个行业发展得怎么样？出海企业应该学习哪些经验？
2023下半年，我们该怎样面对新的市场和行业，跨境又面临哪些新的挑战？
一、上半年跨境关键词——回归
1. “回归价值”
有部分做跨境电商的商家反馈，今年订单数量有所下降，但是订单要求越来越高，海外消费者已经不追求品牌而是选择平替。
其次是诚实的经营、运营，跨境电商的本质是重资产的零售行业，今年商家的追求更多是运营方面的指标，不再看增长方面的指标。
2. “回归多元”
供应链、平台的多元化。中国供应链开始把 3C 电子、纺织服装、家具家居、汽车部件批量化地转移到东南亚，甚至拉美。
对于商家来说，可选择的平台也更加多元化，各个平台各有各的打法。
3. “回归本分”
市场回归理性，企业的估值、商业模式、销售收入、都开始回归本分，因为品牌在加速分化，流量也在加速分化，消费者对供应链、对产品提出了更高的要求，倒逼着企业变得踏实。
4. “回归现实”
电商平台全托管模式的出现，可能使得跨境电商行业的结构更加合理，不同体量、不同运营能力的商家都能在行业里拥有生存空间。
二、上半年的变与不变
2023年的经济回归，也同时带动了资本市场回归理性。
疫情期间大批企业进入出海赛道，当红利退去，创投市场的企业供给数量回归到了正常状态。海外消费者对产品力和品牌力的关注度较高，很多中小企业遇到了发展瓶颈，但头部企业增长要比预期更快。
除了量的变化，还有质的变化。消费电商类企业已经不单纯追求销售规模的扩大，而是更注重企业财务表现和其合规性。
以往很多跨境企业都可以通过高单价和高利润率单品来谋求上市机会，而如今这种方式难度系数越来越大，受渠道和局势不可控等因素影响，此类资产抗风险能力不强。
除了宏观经济的变化，还有最主要的变化是人才的变化。伴随着中国顶级互联网企业加速出海，国内互联网最高战斗力的一批人，被派到各个海外市场，在人才的带动下，中企出海或许会有更为广阔的想象空间。
当我们讨论能够打破内卷的出海玩家的特质时，通常有三点：
◆ 创始人对产品有自己极强的信仰或者极强的热爱；
◆ 在海外有全链路运营能力；
◆ 创始团队具有国际化视野。
企业要不断积累自己的技术单元，在各自领域深耕，才能演化出全球范围内有影响力的产品，而不是简简单单的商品出海。
三、下半年如何突破？
从中长期来看，不能否认东南亚的人口结构、人口基数、在线时长和整体消费力依旧有着巨大潜力。
从2021年下半年开始，跨境电商利润比较高的品类从原本的高频低客单价慢慢切到相对低频高客单价。
平台的大力投入让小卖家、小玩家出海做生意更容易，而我们看到了今年越来越多巨头以及优势产业大玩家的进入，这就是参与玩家上的变化。
出海参与者的增多，也为出海服务商提供了一个契机，随着中国企业在国外越来越强势，这些配套的中国创业团队也会越来越强。
2023年下半年出海的门槛和要求开始变高，一家企业要在相对较短时间内很迅速的成长起来，在创业前期要洞察用户需求，做好产品定义。
中期的话，投放、增长、现金流很重要，再往后就要做一些更加长期主义的事情，比如技术投入、品牌打造。
总而言之不管是供应链出海、品牌出海、还是技术出海，要想清楚自己到底在‘卖’什么？明确目标，然后进行查缺补漏。
翻译：|
What are the opportunities and challenges for cross-border e-commerce in the second half of 2023?
More than half of 2023 has passed, how are the various industries developing in this half year? What experiences should overseas enterprises learn?
In the second half of 2023, how should we face new markets and industries, and what new challenges do we face across borders?
First, the first half of cross-border keywords – return
- “Return to Value”
Some businesses that do cross-border e-commerce feedback that the number of orders has declined this year, but the order requirements are getting higher and higher, overseas consumers have not pursued the brand but choose flat.
Secondly, honest operation and operation, the nature of cross-border e-commerce is the asset-heavy retail industry, and the pursuit of businesses this year is more operational indicators, no longer look at the growth indicators.
- “Return to Diversity”
Diversification of supply chain and platform. China’s supply chain began to transfer 3C electronics, textiles and clothing, furniture and home furnaces, and auto parts to Southeast Asia and even Latin America in bulk.
For merchants, the platform to choose from is also more diversified, and each platform has its own way of playing.
- “Get Back to work”
The market has returned to rationality, and the valuation, business model, and sales revenue of enterprises have all begun to return to their duties, because the brand is accelerating differentiation, the traffic is accelerating differentiation, and consumers have put forward higher requirements for the supply chain and products, forcing enterprises to become practical.
- “Get Down to Earth”
The emergence of the full hosting model of the e-commerce platform may make the structure of the cross-border e-commerce industry more reasonable, and merchants with different volumes and different operating capabilities can have a living space in the industry.
Second, changes and unchanged in the first half of the year
The economic return in 2023 also led to the return of the capital market to rationality.
During the epidemic, a large number of enterprises entered the sea track, and when the dividend receded, the supply of enterprises in the venture capital market returned to the normal state. Overseas consumers pay more attention to product power and brand power, and many small and medium-sized enterprises have encountered development bottlenecks, but the growth of the head enterprise is faster than expected.
In addition to the quantitative change, there is also a qualitative change. Consumer e-commerce companies no longer simply pursue the expansion of sales scale, but pay more attention to corporate financial performance and its compliance.
In the past, many cross-border enterprises can seek listing opportunities through high unit prices and high profit margins, but now this method is becoming more and more difficult, affected by factors such as uncontrollable channels and situations, such assets are not strong in their ability to resist risks.
In addition to macroeconomic changes, the most important change is the change of talent. With the acceleration of China’s top Internet companies to the sea, a group of people with the highest combat effectiveness of the domestic Internet have been sent to various overseas markets, driven by talents, Chinese enterprises may have a broader imagination.
When we talk about the characteristics of sea players who can break the internal volume, there are usually three points:
◆ The founder has his own strong belief or strong love for the product;
◆ Full link operation capability overseas;
◆ The founding team has an international vision.
Enterprises should continue to accumulate their own technical units and cultivate deeply in their respective fields in order to evolve products with global influence, rather than simply going to sea.
Third, how to break through in the second half of the year?
In the medium to long term, it cannot be denied that Southeast Asia’s demographic structure, population base, online time and overall spending power still have great potential.
Starting from the second half of 2021, the categories with higher profits of cross-border e-commerce will slowly cut from the original high-frequency and low customer unit price to the relatively low frequency and high customer unit price.
The strong investment of the platform makes it easier for small sellers and small players to go out to do business, and we have seen the entry of more and more giants and big players in advantageous industries this year, which is the change in participating players.
The increase of participants in the sea also provides an opportunity for the sea service providers, as Chinese enterprises become more and more strong abroad, these supporting Chinese entrepreneurial teams will become stronger and stronger.
In the second half of 2023, the threshold and requirements to go to sea began to become high, a company to grow up very quickly in a relatively short period of time, in the early stage of entrepreneurship to insight into user needs, do a good job of product definition.
In the medium term, investment, growth, cash flow is important, and then in the future, you need to do more long-term things, such as technology investment, brand building.
All in all, whether it is the supply chain to go to sea, the brand to go to sea, or the technology to go to sea, to think about what you are ‘selling’? Identify your goals and then fill in the blanks.
