在市场剧烈震荡、行业信心跌入低谷的2021年，龙湖是为数不多依然坚挺的企业之一。
3月25日，龙湖集团控股有限公司（以下简称“龙湖”，http://00960.HK）发布2021年年度业绩公告。合同销售额近三千亿元、营业收入突破两千亿大关、多航道持续开花结果、三道“红线”仍保持全绿….。
顺势进取，逆势突围。龙湖能做到这一点，与战略的前瞻、战术的效率是分不开的。
一、合同销售额稳中有进
2021年，龙湖坚守盘面，实现合同销售额2900.9亿元，虽未达到预期3000亿元的销售额，但同比2020年增长7.2%。销售总建筑面积1708.9万平方米，较2020年增长5.7%；销售单价1.7万元/平方米，同比增长1.4%。在地产市场大环境糟糕情况下各指标仍保持稳健增长。
分区域来看，龙湖长三角、西部、环渤海、华南及华中片区合同销售额分别为818.9亿元、639.1亿元、723.8亿元、433.3亿元及285.8亿元，分别占集团合同销售额的28.2%、22.0%、25.0%、14.9%及9.9%。其中，华中地区的销售份额增长最为明显，比2020年增长115亿元；环渤海地区也增长了110.8亿元，超越西部地区成为2021年销售额第二大贡献来源。而长三角和西部地区的销售额均有所下滑，分别下降25.1亿元和27.9亿元。
二、营业收入破两千亿大关，物业投资业务保持快增长态势
2021年龙湖录得营业收入2233.8亿元，同比增长21%；毛利润565.4亿元，同比增长4.6%；毛利率25.3%，同比下降4%，但相比其他房企，龙湖的毛利率水平仍维持在较高水平。且2021年3月15日，龙湖被纳入恒生指数成份股，正式跻身蓝筹股。同年5月，龙湖首次登榜《财富》世界500强榜单，可见龙湖稳健的经营发展受到了市场广泛认可。
从营收结构上看，开发业务仍是龙湖营收稳健的定心盘。2021年龙湖开发业务录得2045.5亿元，同比2020年增长19.6%，占总收入的91.57%。
从城市分布来看，开发业务主要集中于核心一二线城市，其中重庆、成都、沈阳、苏州、长沙为收入TOP5城市，分别占比8.68%、7.8%、5.15%、4.41%、3.89%。明显看出，龙湖在重庆重点布局的同时，兼顾了苏州、长沙等新晋网红城市的业务布局，均衡多城市“撒点”发展。
开发业务稳健增长的同时，物业投资业务收入保持快速增长态势。2021年，龙湖物业投资业务收入104.1亿元，同比增长37.3%，占总收入的4.7%，同比升高0.6个百分点。近年来，龙湖物业投资业务一直保持着强劲的增长，营收同比增速保持在30%以上，占总收入的比重也逐步提升，物业投资业务蒸蒸日上。
物业投资业务持续迅猛发展的背后，是企业稳定的拓展步伐和不断优化的运营管理。近年来，龙湖始终保持着每年开业10家及以上的商场，开业规模稳步增长，其中2021年开业12家。除商场外，龙湖也大力发展长租公寓业务板块。目前，龙湖冠寓已陆续在北京、上海、深圳、杭州、成都、南京、重庆等一线及二线城市开业运营。
三、高质量土地储备，三道红线保持全绿
年报显示，2021年龙湖新增土地储备总建筑面积2355万平方米，权益面积1338万平方米，平均权益收购成本为6485元/平方米。集团总土储合计7354万平方米，权益总面积 5047万平方米。
从新增土储的分布情况来看，西部地区、长三角地区、华中地区、环渤海地区及华南地区的新增面积，分别占新增收购土地储备总建筑面积的28.8%、26.6%、20.3%、14.4%及9.9%。其中，约85%的房屋货量集中在这五大城市圈的核心价值区域，为净利润的稳定增长提供了重要基础。龙湖集团CFO赵轶在年报发布会上表示，未来龙湖将持续提升所在城市的市占率，推动房屋供应量有品质的增长。
高质量的土地储备带来了稳健的销售额度和营业收入，同时也带来了稳定的债务结构。
2021年，龙湖平均借贷成本4.14%，创历史新低。剔除预收款后的资产负债率64.7%、净负债率46.7%、现金短债比6.11倍。一系列指标均维持行业内的较高水准，连续六年“三道红线”指标保持“全绿”。据睿和智库数据统计，在监管的“三道红线”上，市场上308家房地产企业中，超过2/3的房企未能满足监管要求，而龙湖是为数不多满足要求的民营上市公司。
此外，龙湖也是国内唯一一家获得境内外全投资级评级的民营房企。其中，惠誉、穆迪、标普分别保持BBB稳定、Baa2稳定、BBB稳定的全投资级评级，中诚信证评（AAA）、新世纪资信（AAA）均为稳定，龙湖继续成为民营房企的最佳信用评级。
四、扛旗开拓，多航道开花结果
龙湖一直强调“空间即服务”的战略。强调在地产开发、商业运营、租赁住房、物业管理、房屋租售、房屋装修六大赛道多维驱动、协同发展。在2021年物业投资业务税后租金收入的104.1亿元中，商场、租赁住房、其他收入的占比分别为77.3%、21.4%和1.3%。
商业地产板块方面，龙湖持续布局，提升回报。2021年龙湖商业开启轻重并举模式，在一二线城市网格化布局提速。全年新开12座商场，长沙、武汉首座天街开业运营，全国首个龙湖商业轻资产项目——武汉范湖里商业街亮相。
截至2021年底，龙湖在全国范围内累计开业商场达61座，已开业商场建筑面积达594万平方米（含车位总建筑面积为749万平方米），整体出租率97.2%。商业租金81.5亿元，同比增长40%；商场销售额467亿元，同比增长53%；全年平均日客流209万人次，同比增长38%。在2021年睿和智库发布的《2021Q4中国经营性不动产季度分析报告》中，龙湖商业在购物中心运营商运营力榜单中排名第七。
此外，龙湖于2021年推出全新物业管理品牌“龙湖智创生活”，融合物业管理及商业运营两大核心业务，成为龙湖多航道协同发展的新着力点。截至2021年底，龙湖智创生活营业收入已破百亿元大关，实际管理面积2.64亿平方米，位列头部物业企业在管面积第十名。
长租公寓板块方面，得益于政策利好的支持及企业运营管理能力的稳步提升，龙湖冠寓2021年已实现盈利。截至2021年底，龙湖冠寓累计开业房间数量达10万间，居行业排名前二，租金收入22.3亿元，同比增长23%，成为龙湖经营性收入的稳定来源。截至报告期末，龙湖冠寓整体出租率为92.9%，开业超过六个月的房源出租率为94.3%，累计服务超180万用户，客户满意度达95%。据2021年睿和智库发布的《2021Q4中国经营性不动产季度分析报告》，龙湖冠寓在集中式长租公寓榜中排名第三。
房屋装修板块，去年龙湖集团新增全新品牌“塘鹅”，今年应势升级为主航道业务。塘鹅由塘鹅租售和塘鹅美装修组成，提供一站式房产经纪业务，多样化资产管理整合方案和即装即住的装配式整体解决方案，目前塘鹅租售已位列物业房屋租售业务领域第二。
同时龙湖集团也在积极布局数字化“基建”，以千丁软硬件产品能力、智能化集成能力，致力于为城市空间智能化建设提供一站式解决方案，为龙湖“空间即服务”战略提供科技动力。
五、结语
受大趋势影响，睿和智库认为，未来两三年，房地产行业依然身处不确定性中艰难转型，但“房住不炒”的主基调不会有太大的变化。近期，对房地产行业的一系列放松管制的政策，会适当纾困部分企业的难关。但如果企业不及时改变过去高周转的发展模式，依然难逃大势的清洗。
大潮褪去方知谁在裸泳。据睿和智库调研，龙湖是业界公认的安全稳健的企业，这与其对于大势的敬畏、战略和战术笃定分不开。龙湖目前已经在开发、不动产经营、服务、和科技赋能四个赛道上做了较为均衡的布局，预计这家企业能够安然渡过行业转型期。
Good luck,龙湖！
翻译：
Longfor was one of the few companies to hold up in 2021, when market volatility and industry confidence plunged.
On March 25, Longfor Group Holdings Co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as “Longfor”, http://00960.HK) released the 2021 annual results announcement. Contract sales of nearly 300 billion yuan, operating revenue exceeded 200 billion mark, multiple waterways continue to blossom, three “red lines” still maintain all green…. .
Progress with the trend and break out against the trend. Longfor can do this, and strategic foresight, tactical efficiency is inseparable.
Contract sales are steady and improving
In 2021, Longfor sticks to the plate, achieving the contract sales of 290.09 billion yuan. Although not reaching the expected sales of 300 billion yuan, but an increase of 7.2% year-on-year in 2020. The total sales floor area of 17.089 million square meters, an increase of 5.7% compared with 2020; The unit price of sales is 17,000 yuan/square meter, up 1.4% year-on-year. In the real estate market environment is bad, all indicators still maintain steady growth.
By region, the contracted sales of Longhu Yangtze River Delta, Western China, Bohai Rim, South China and Central China were 81.89 billion yuan, 63.91 billion yuan, 72.38 billion yuan, 43.33 billion yuan and 28.58 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 28.2%, 22.0%, 25.0%, 14.9% and 9.9% of the group’s contracted sales. Among them, the sales share in central China increased the most obviously, increasing by 11.5 billion yuan compared with 2020. The Bohai Rim region also saw an increase of 11.08 billion yuan, surpassing the western region to become the second largest contributor to sales in 2021. Sales in the Yangtze River Delta and western China both declined, down 2.51 billion yuan and 2.79 billion yuan, respectively.
The operating revenue exceeded 200 billion yuan, and the property investment business maintained a fast growth trend
In 2021, Longfor recorded a revenue of 223.38 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21%; Gross profit was 56.54 billion yuan, up 4.6 percent year on year; Gross profit margin of 25.3%, down 4% year on year, but compared with other real estate enterprises. Longfor’s gross profit margin level is still maintained at a high level. And on March 15, 2021, Longfor was included in the Hang Seng Index and officially joined the blue chip stock. In May of the same year, Longfor was listed in the Fortune Global 500 list for the first time. It shows that Longfor’s steady business development has been widely recognized by the market.
From the revenue structure, the development business is still a stable revenue Longfor centering plate. In 2021, Longfor Development business recorded 204.55 billion yuan. A year-on-year increase of 19.6%, accounting for 91.57% of the total revenue.
From the perspective of city distribution
From the perspective of city distribution, the development business is mainly concentrated in the core first and second tier cities, among which Chongqing, Chengdu, Shenyang, Suzhou and Changsha are the TOP5 cities in terms of income, accounting for 8.68%, 7.8%, 5.15%, 4.41% and 3.89% respectively. It is obvious that Longfor not only focuses on Chongqing. But also takes into account the business layout of Suzhou, Changsha and other new Internet celebrity cities. So as to balance the “scattered” development of multiple cities.
While the development business grew steadily, the property investment business income maintained a rapid growth trend. In 2021, the income of Longfor Property investment business reached 10.41 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 37.3%, accounting for 4.7% of the total income, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6 percentage points. In recent years, the property investment business of Longfor has maintained strong growth. And the year-on-year growth rate of revenue remain at more than 30% and the proportion of total revenue gradually increasing. The property investment business is thriving.
Behind the continuous and rapid development of property investment business is the steady pace of enterprise expansion and continuous optimization of operation management. In recent years, Longfor has always maintained the annual opening of 10 or more malls. And the opening scale has steadily increased, including 12 stores in 2021. In addition to shopping malls, Longfor is also developing its long-rent apartment business segment. At present, Longfor Guanyu has opened and operated successively in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Nanjing, Chongqing and other first-tier and second-tier cities.
High-quality land reserve, three red lines to keep all green
According to the annual report, in 2021, Longfor’s newly added land reserve has a total construction area of 23.55 million square meters and an equity area of 13.38 million square meters, with an average equity acquisition cost of 6,485 yuan per square meter. The total soil reserves of the group are 73.54 million square meters. And the total area of equity is 50.47 million square meters.
In terms of the distribution of newly acquired land reserves, the newly added area in western China, Yangtze River Delta, Central China, Bohai Rim and South China accounted for 28.8%, 26.6%, 20.3%, 14.4% and 9.9% of the total construction area of newly acquired land reserves, respectively. Among them, about 85% of the housing goods concentrated in the core value areas of these five metropolitan areas. It provided an important basis for the stable growth of net profit. Zhao Yi, chief financial officer of Longfor Group, said at the annual report conference that Longfor will continue to increase the market share of its cities in the future and promote the growth of quality housing supply.
High quality land bank brings sound sales quota and operating income, but also brings stable debt structure.
In 2021, Longfor’s average borrowing cost hit a record low of 4.14%. Excluding advances, the asset-liability ratio is 64.7%, the net debt ratio is 46.7%, and the cash-short debt ratio is 6.11 times. A series of indicators are maintained in the industry at a high level, six consecutive years “three red line” indicators remain “all green”. According to Ruihe Think Tank, more than two-thirds of the 308 real estate companies on the market failed to meet the regulatory requirements on the “three red lines”. And Longfor is one of the few private listed companies to do so.
In addition, Longfor is the only private real estate company in China to obtain a full investment grade rating at home and abroad. Among them, Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s maintain BBB stable, Baa2 stable and BBB stable full investment grade ratings respectively, China Credit Rating (AAA) and New Century Credit Rating (AAA) are stable. And Longfor continues to become the best credit rating for private real estate enterprises.
carry the flag to develop, multi channel blossom and bear fruit
Longfor has always emphasized a “space-as-a-service” strategy. Emphasis on real estate development, commercial operation, rental housing, property management, housing rental and sale, housing decoration six tracks multi-dimensional driving, collaborative development. In 2021, the after-tax rental income of the property investment business of 10.41 billion yuan, shopping malls, rental housing, other income accounted for 77.3%, 21.4% and 1.3%, respectively.
Commercial real estate sector
Commercial real estate sector, Longfor continued layout, improve returns. In 2021, Longfor Business will start the heavy and heavy mode and accelerate the grid layout in the first and second tier cities. During the year, 12 new shopping malls were opened. The first Tianjie in Changsha and Wuhan was put into operation. And Wuhan Fanhu Commercial Street, the first asset-light Longfor commercial project in China, was unveiled.
By the end of 2021, Longfor has opened a total of 61 shopping malls nationwide, with a floor area of 5.94 million square meters (including a total floor area of 7.49 million square meters of parking Spaces), with an overall rental rate of 97.2%. Commercial rent was 8.15 billion yuan, up 40% year on year; The sales volume of shopping malls was 46.7 billion yuan, up 53% year on year; The annual average daily passenger flow reached 2.09 million, a year-on-year growth of 38%. In the “2021Q4 Quarterly Analysis Report of China Operating Real Estate” released by Rishe Think Tank in 2021, Longfor ranked seventh in the operating power list of shopping center operators.
In addition, Longfor launched a new property management brand “Longfor Smart Creation Life” in 2021, which integrates the two core businesses of property management and commercial operation, becoming a new focus for the coordinated development of Longfor multi-channel. By the end of 2021, the business income of Longfor Zhichuang has exceeded 10 billion yuan. And the actual management area is 264 million square meters. It ranke the 10th among the top property enterprises in the area under management.
Long-rent apartment sector
In the long-rent apartment sector, Longfor Guanyu has achieved profit in 2021 thanks to the support of favorable policies and the steady improvement of enterprise operation and management ability. By the end of 2021, the total number of open rooms of Longfor Guanyu has reached 100,000. It ranked the top two in the industry, and the rental income has reached 2.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23%, becoming a stable source of operating income for Longfor.
By the end of the report, the overall rental rate of Longfor Guanyu is 92.9%. And the rental rate of the houses opened for more than six months is 94.3%. The accumulative service exceeds 1.8 million users, and the customer satisfaction rate reaches 95%. According to the “2021Q4 China Operating Real Estate Quarterly Analysis Report” released by Rui He Think Tank in 2021. Longfor Guanyu ranked third in the list of long-term rental apartments.
Housing decoration plate, last year Longfor Group added a new brand “Gannet”, this year should upgrade the main channel business. Comprising of Gannet Rental and Sales and Gannet Beauty Renovation, Gannet Rental and Sales is now ranked second in the property rental and sales business, providing one-stop real estate brokerage services, diversified asset management integration solutions and prefabricated total solutions.
At the same time, Longfor Group is also actively laying out the digital “infrastructure”. And dedicates itself to providing one-stop solutions for the intelligent construction of urban space with the capability of thousands of hardware and software products and intelligent integration, and providing scientific and technological impetus for Longfor’s “space as a service” strategy.
Conclusion
Influenced by the general trend, Ruihe think Tank believes that in the next two or three years, the real estate industry is still in the difficult transition of uncertainty. But the main tone of “housing and housing do not stir” will not change much. Recently, a series of deregulation policies for the real estate industry will help some enterprises properly. But if the enterprise does not timely change the past high turnover development mode, still cannot escape the trend of cleaning.
You don’t know who’s swimming naked until the tide goes out. According to the research of Ruihe think Tank, Longfor is recognized as a safe and stable enterprise in the industry. It cannot be separated from its awe for the general trend, strategy and tactics. At present, Longfor has made a balanced layout in the four tracks of development, real estate management, service and technology empowerment. It is expected that this enterprise can survive the industry transformation.
Good luck, Longhu!
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