在各大厂商中，戴尔一直是离开中国的急先锋。
现在，据台媒工商时报曝光了戴尔所谓“去大陆化”的全套剧本和时间表，从上游IC采购到中下游周边再到整机组装，都有明确的安排。
根据计划，戴尔预计从2025年开始，首先在中下游供应链中排除中国内地制造，并优先在美国内需市场上进行转变。
比如笔记本，戴尔计划到2025年，在美国市场上销售的产品，60％必须在中国大陆之外的地区生产，2027年则达到100％。
台式机电脑也是类似的安排。
换言之，到了2027年，戴尔出货产品的35-40％，都会在中国内地之外的地区生产。
IC零组件采购方面，戴尔计划从2026年开始，分阶段离开中国大陆。
第一阶段是排除中国内地IC厂商在中国大陆晶圆厂生产的产品，第二阶段是排除中国IC大陆厂商在海外晶圆厂生产的产品。
至于美国、欧洲、日本、韩国、中国台湾等IC厂商在中国大陆晶圆厂生产的产品，迟早也会通过所谓的“道德劝说”，迫使改变生产地点。
市调机构Gartner的数据，2022年戴尔笔记本、台式机全球出货量近5000万台，IC采购总额达180亿美元。
尽管全球经济仍在缓慢恢复中，戴尔接下来两三年的全球PC年出货量也会有4700万台左右，IC采购额一年至少160亿美元。
戴尔笔记本在美国市场上的出货量占总量的40％以上，照此计算，2025年在中国内地之外生产的规模就有1800-1900万台，2027年则会达到全量的3000-3200万台。
翻译：
Among major manufacturers, Dell has been at the forefront of leaving China.
Now, according to the Taiwan media Business Times exposure of Dell’s so-called “decontinentalization” of the full set of scripts and schedules, from the upstream IC procurement, the middle and downstream surrounding and the assembly of the whole machine, there are clear arrangements.
According to the plan, Dell expects to first exclude Chinese manufacturing from the middle and downstream supply chain starting in 2025, and prioritize the transition to the domestic market in the United States.
For laptops, for example, Dell plans to have 60 percent of its products sold in the United States made outside mainland China by 2025, and 100 percent by 2027.
Desktop computers have a similar arrangement.
In other words, by 2027, 35-40% of Dell’s shipments will be made outside China.
In terms of IC component procurement, Dell plans to leave the Chinese mainland in phases starting in 2026.
In the first stage, products produced by IC manufacturers in mainland China in fabs are excluded. While in the second stage, products produced by IC manufacturers in mainland China in fabs overseas are excluded.
As for IC manufacturers from the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries making their products in wafer factories in mainland China. It is only a matter of time before so-called “moral suasion” forces them to change their production location.
According to market research firm Gartner, Dell will ship nearly 50 million laptops and desktops worldwide in 2022, with IC purchases totaling $18 billion.
Although the global economy is still slowly recovering, Dell will ship around 47 million PCS a year in the next two or three years and purchase at least $16 billion in IC a year.
Dell’s shipments in the U.S. account for more than 40 percent of the total. Based on this calculation, 18 to 19 million laptops will be manufactured outside China in 2025, and 30 to 32 million will be made in 2027.
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