中国银行业协会、普华永道会计师事务所近日联合发布《中国银行家调查报告（2020）》（以下简称《报告》），《报告》立足新发展阶段，贯彻新发展理念，全方位、立体式地解读呈现银行家对当前阶段银行业发展的看法与思考，助力服务新发展格局。
报告来源：来源：中国银行业协会、普华永道会计师事务所
《报告》主要内容如下：
一、银行家主动贯彻新发展理念、服务构建新发展格局。未来宏观经济的主要风险是中美关系不确定性增加以及国内外疫情持续对经济的影响。构建“双循环”新发展格局成为目前最受银行家关注的问题。银行家对宏观经济政策评价整体提高，民生政策所发挥的积极作用受到银行家肯定。银行家认为当前货币政策发力重点是完善基础货币的投放机制。银行家表示落实落细减税降费的财政政策改革是托底实体经济的关键。关于要素市场化改革，银行家重点关注推进资本要素市场化配置，银行家将增加小微民营企业金融服务供给作为服务要素市场化改革的重点。关于LPR改革实施情况，银行家认为LPR改革最大受益者是小微民营企业，LPR通过引导贷款利率下行影响整个银行业。在房地产长效调控机制逐步完善下，银行家预计一二线城市房地产市场将保持平稳。超七成银行家认为建立健全清算系统是稳步推动人民币国际化的重点。
二、超半数银行家将推进智能化与数字化建设作为战略重点。随着中国开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程、向第二个百年奋斗目标进军，中国银行业的发展战略也出现了新的变化。银行家对小微企业客户关注度持续提高，银行重点发展区域呈现差异化特征。银行家支持稳步推进综合化经营，重点着力资源整合与协同；银行家关注轻型化发展战略，拥抱科技，实现业务科技化、场景化是首要举措；特色化战略成为大多数受访银行家的选择，深耕区域化发展，提供个性化、多层次金融服务是主要方向；“一带一路”和亚太自贸区战略仍为银行业海外发展最关注领域，审慎监管趋严成为银行家在制定战略规划和风险管理中需重点考量的因素。
三、医药制造业首次超越基础设施业成为银行家信贷投向重点支持的行业。在商业银行信贷投放策略中，医药制造业首次成为银行信贷投向重点支持行业之首，同时住宿餐在预期不良率上升的行业中首次超过房地产业、冶金业而跃居榜首，而房地产业依然是重点限制行业。2020年商业银行业务推进重点有所变化。为应对新冠肺炎疫情对实体经济带来的冲击，银行业积极出台金融扶持政策与措施来降低实体经济融资成本，48.1%的银行家选择定向降准成为最有利于商业银行降低实体企业融资成本的政策手段。此外，在政府专项债券发行提速，鼓励金融机构为符合条件的专项债支持项目提供市场化融资的政策背景下，商业银行通过开展专项债项目配套融资支持“两新一重”建设。
四、银行业风控体系日趋完善，管理运营水平不断提升。2020年，中国银行业内外部经营环境日益复杂，加之新冠肺炎疫情等突发事件的冲击，银行业风险内控与管理运营进一步受到关注。
在风险管理与内部控制方面，信用风险仍然是银行家最为关注的风险，虽然近六成银行家认为银行业整体资产质量保持稳定，但也有五成银行家对潜在不良贷款风险暴露表示担忧。在内部控制方面，银行家倾向以内控制度、体系和文化为抓手，提升内部控制能力。在人力资源管理方面，未来银行业员工数量增长预期持续弱化，且人才流出去向以金融机构为主。资产负债管理方面，未来一年资产来源中贷款类资产占比将提升，说明商业银行正在回归本源，积极助力实体经济发展；负债来源中传统存款占比也将继续加大，近七成银行家预期未来一年普通存款的比重会上升，结构性存款等其他存款类比重维持不变或下降，有利于降低负债成本。
五、银行业加大对金融科技的投入，助推数字化转型。在新冠肺炎疫情席卷全球的背景下，银行业加深了对数字化转型的思考，同时央行数字货币的试点体现科技带给金融的强大驱动力。总体上，银行家对金融科技持更加积极接受的态度。在发展金融科技的过程中，虽然存在如缺乏专业复合型人才、技术支持不足等诸多困难，银行仍持续加大投入力度、拓宽应用场景、强化与金融科技公司合作以提升核心竞争力。
六、银行业党的领导与公司治理有机融合，厚植履行社会责任理念和能力。2020年，银行业重点聚焦健全公司治理制度体系，坚持加强党对金融工作的全面领导，坚持完善现代金融企业制度，持续深化党的领导与公司治理的有机融合，着力加强股东行为监管与违规关联交易整治，规范董事会、监事会、高管层等治理主体的履职行为，严格信息披露，加强利益相关者权益保护，调查显示，2020年银行家对中国银行业公司治理水平较为满意，得分均在4.4分以上（满分为5分）。与此同时，银行业积极履行社会责任，持续致力于加强扶贫、绿色金融、消费者保护等工作，ESG（关注环境、社会、公司治理）的核心理论和标准全面融入银行业公司治理中，超过九成银行家表示所在银行（92.8%）开展了绿色信贷业务。
七、银行家对监管指标体系评价较高，对防控化解风险和服务实体经济等举措表示认可。2020年，中国银行业面临前所未有的考验，监管层以防范系统性风险为底线，出台相应政策确保银行业稳健发展。调查显示，中国银行家对2020年银行业主要监管指标体系整体评价总体维持在较高水平。特别是资本充足率指标作为银行监管的核心指标，在主要监管指标选项中，已连续八年评价最高，严监管环境下资本监管的执行和检查力度更加严格。
八、银行家对工作与生活的满意程度上升。尽管在新冠肺炎疫情冲击下银行业面临较大挑战，但银行家群体在工作和生活相关方面的满意度并没有受到影响。相反，面对疫情的挑战与百年未有之大变局，银行家金融报国的责任意识增强，工作成就感上升。同时，由于中国应对疫情快速得当，率先实现复工复产，银行家对工作和生活的满意度有了一定程度提升。
九、国有大型商业银行在较多业务领域维持着较明显的竞争优势。中国银行业整体呈现较为稳定的竞争格局，大型商业银行在较多业务领域维持着明显的竞争优势。其中，四大行在除小微信贷、信用卡、私人银行、电子银行、金融科技以外的其他11项业务领域的同行竞争力评价排名中均位列前四。从细分领域来看，工商银行在所调查的16项业务领域中有12项排名第一，中国银行以其多年国际化优势位列国际结算与贸易融资业务领域第一名，建设银行在金融科技赋能下保持其在小微信贷与个人按揭业务领域的龙头地位，农业银行也在几乎全部业务领域都位居前列。同时，股份制银行的业务竞争力也在不断提升，其中招商银行在7项业务中排名位居前五，其它股份制银行在部分业务领域亦具备较强的市场竞争力。
十、银行业着力做好“六稳”工作、落实“六保”任务，助力打赢疫情防控阻击战。面对新冠肺炎疫情防控与经济下行的双重压力，83.4%的银行家认为改善信贷流程，提高服务效率是银行业支持实体经济的重中之重。同时，82.6%的银行家表示银行业将发展金融科技，降低运营成本，提升金融服务质量与效率，使金融科技创新成果更好地惠及百姓民生，进而推动实体经济健康可持续发展。而新兴产业作为经济体系中最有活力、最具增长潜力的组成部分，68.1%的银行家表示将积极响应国家战略，扶持战略性新兴产业。
十一、银行家普遍认为“十四五”时期中国银行业发展将持续向好，重点关注科技创新和金融体制深化改。2020年是全面建成小康社会和“十三五”规划收官之年，同时也是两个一百年目标的历史交汇期，承接“十四五”时期发展新阶段和第二个百年奋斗目标的新起点。调查显示，超半数受访银行家预计“十四五”时期GDP平均增速区间位于5.5%-6.5%之间，这表明在“后疫情”时代受访银行家普遍认为中国经济发展具备坚强韧性和巨大潜能。
十二、“后疫情”时代银行业经营管理稳中求进，努力育新机、开新局。新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来，银行业经营面临不良贷款率上升、资产质量下降等压力，六成银行家认为农村商业银行受冲击最大，超半数银行家预测疫情负面影响将于2021年底消退。
面对疫情所带来的不良贷款压力，超七成银行家将严控新增贷款质量、降低增量风险作为应对不良贷款风险的重要手段。疫情期间，银行业与企业共度时艰，超半数银行家认为对防疫企业实施定向信贷支持效果最明显。此外，疫情给银行业带来负面影响的同时也孕育新机，超七成银行家认为疫情为加快银行数字化转型（86.1%）、加快客户线上化迁徙（73.8%）起到了促进作用。
十三、数字化转型稳步推进，5G推动无人网点建设。面对行业竞争格局的改变以及服务需求方与供给方行为模式的转变，数字化转型已经成为中国银行业一个重要发展方向。银行业正顺应数字化时代发展趋势，解决数字化思维和认识问题，积极运用金融科技手段提升服务实体经济的能力。
在数字化转型的进展方面，目前商业银行普遍处于初步探索和基本应用阶段。调查结果显示，37.9%的银行处于初步探索阶段，34.0%的银行处于基本应用阶段，只有5.9%的银行处于深度融合阶段。由于自身在资金和人才方面的优势，大型商业银行在数字化转型方面表现较为突出。调查结果显示，大型商业银行中有41.4%处于普遍应用阶段、15.7%处于深度融合阶段。
十四、银行业践行金融使命，推进普惠金融发展。服务“六稳”“六保”大局是大部分银行发展普惠金融的出发点。在此基础上，商业银行充分发挥主观能动性，加大信贷资源配置，借助金融科技，丰富普惠金融产品，提升普惠金融服务能力。
67.5%的受访银行家认为发展普惠金融在为民营、小微企业提供“造血”能力的同时，也将为商业银行产生新的业务增长点。90.2%的银行家表示银行传统的贷款业务仍然是银行支持小微、民营企业发展的业务首选。但在对小微、民营企业提供普惠金融服务时，77.8%的银行家表示小微、民营企业无法提供银行认可的担保物，风险溢价较高。43.4%的银行家希望金融扶贫能够加强完善尽职免责机制，通过营造愿干事、敢干事、能干成事的环境，为大胆探索提供激励、留足空间。
十五、银行家认为中小银行发展整体良好，中小银行应坚守定位聚焦主业。近年以来国务院金稳委连续部署中小银行工作，体现出党中央、国务院高度重视中小银行的改革、发展和稳定。中小银行风险处置与高质量发展对防范化解金融风险至关重要。调查显示，多数银行家认为当前大部分中小银行状况良好，但做好风险防控工作仍然需要持续深入推进。
翻译：
China Banking Association and Pricewaterhousecoopers (PWC) recently jointly released the China Bankers Survey Report (2020) (hereinafter referred to as the Report). Based on the new development stage, the report implements the new development concepts. Interprets bankers’ views and reflections on the current stage of banking development in a comprehensive and three-dimensional manner. And helps to serve the new development pattern.
Sources: China Banking Association, Pricewaterhousecoopers
The main contents of the Report are as follows:
1. Bankers take the initiative to implement new development concepts and provide services to build a new development pattern.
The main macroeconomic risks going forward are the increased uncertainty in China-Us relations and the continued economic impact of the pandemic at home and abroad. The construction of “double cycle” new development pattern has become the most concerned issue of bankers. Bankers’ evaluation of macroeconomic policies on the whole increased, and the positive role of livelihood policies was affirmed by bankers. Bankers believe that the focus of the current monetary policy is to improve the supply mechanism of base money. Bankers said the implementation of fiscal policy reforms to cut taxes and fees is the key to supporting the real economy.
With regard to the market-oriented reform of factors, the Banker focuses on promoting the market-oriented allocation of capital factors. And the Banker takes increasing the financial service supply of small and micro private enterprises as the focus of the market-oriented reform of service factors. As for the implementation of LPR reform. Bankers believe that the biggest beneficiaries of LPR reform are small and micro private enterprises. And LPR affects the whole banking industry by guiding the loan interest rate down. Bankers expect the real estate market in first – and second-tier cities to remain stable as long-term regulation mechanisms are gradually improved. More than 70% of the bankers believe that establishing a sound clearing system is the key to steadily promoting the internationalization of RMB.
2. More than half of bankers regard the promotion of intelligent and digital construction as a strategic priority.
As China embarks on a new journey to comprehensively build a modern socialist country and march towards the second centenary goal. The development strategy of China’s banking industry has also seen new changes. Bankers continue to pay more attention to small and micro business customers. And the bank’s key development areas show different characteristics.
The bankers support the steady promotion of integrated operation, focusing on resource integration and synergy. Bankers pay attention to the light development strategy, embrace science and technology. And realize the business technology and scene is the first measure. The characteristic strategy is the choice of most interviewed bankers. The main direction is to deepen regional development and provide personalized and multi-level financial services. The strategy of “One Belt, One Road” and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific is still the most concerned area for the overseas development of the banking industry, and the tightening of prudential supervision has become the key factor for bankers to consider in the formulation of strategic planning and risk management.
3. For the first time, pharmaceutical manufacturing has overtaken infrastructure as the key sector for bankers’ credit support.
In the credit delivery strategy of commercial banks. The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry for the first time became the top of the key support industries for bank credit investment. While the hotel and restaurant industry surpassed the real estate industry and the metallurgical industry for the first time in the industry with the expected rise in the failure rate. While the real estate industry is still the key restricted industry. In 2020, the focus of commercial banking business will be changed. In order to cope with the impact of COVID-19 on the real economy. The banking industry actively introduced financial support policies and measures to reduce the financing cost of the real economy.
48.1% of bankers chose targeted reduction of the required reserve ratio as the most favorable policy means for commercial banks to reduce the financing cost of real enterprises. In addition, under the policy background of accelerating government special bond issuance and encouraging financial institutions to provide market-oriented financing for qualified special bond projects, commercial banks support the construction of “two new projects and one heavy project” by carrying out supporting financing for special bond projects.
4. The risk control system of the banking industry has been improved, and the management and operation level has been continuously improved.
In 2020, the internal and external business environment of China’s banking industry has become increasingly complex, coupled with the impact of the novel coronavirus outbreak and other emergencies, the internal risk control and management operation of the banking industry has received further attention.
In terms of risk management and internal control. Credit risk is still the risk that bankers pay the most attention to. Although nearly 60% of bankers believe that the overall asset quality of the banking industry remains stable. 50% of bankers also worry about the exposure of potential non-performing loan risks. In terms of internal control, bankers tend to take internal control system, system and culture as the starting point to improve the ability of internal control. In terms of human resource management, the growth expectation of the number of banking employees in the future continues to weaken. And the outflow of talents is mainly in financial institutions.
In terms of asset and liability management, the proportion of loan assets will increase in the coming year. Indicating that commercial banks are returning to their roots and actively contributing to the development of the real economy. Traditional deposits will also continue to account for a larger share of liabilities. With nearly 70 percent of bankers expecting the proportion of ordinary deposits to rise in the coming year. While the proportion of other deposits, such as structured deposits, will remain unchanged or decline, helping to reduce debt costs.
5. The banking industry will increase its investment in fintech to boost digital transformation.
In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic sweeping the world, the banking industry has deepened its thinking on digital transformation. And the pilot of the central bank’s digital currency reflects the strong driving force brought by technology to finance. In general, bankers have been more receptive to fintech. In the process of developing fintech, banks continue to increase investment, expand application scenarios. And strengthen cooperation with fintech companies to enhance core competitiveness despite many difficulties. Such as lack of professional and inter-disciplinary talents and insufficient technical support.
6. Organic integration of the Party’s leadership and corporate governance in the banking sector, strengthening the concept and ability to fulfill social responsibility.
In 2020, the banking industry will focus on improving the corporate governance system. Insist on strengthening the Party’s overall leadership over financial work. Insist on improving the modern financial enterprise system, continue to deepen the organic integration of the Party’s leadership and corporate governance, focus on strengthening the supervision of shareholders’ behavior and the rectification of illegal related transactions. And standardize the performance of the board of directors. The board of supervisors, the senior management and other governance bodies.
Strict information disclosure, strengthen the protection of stakeholders’ rights and interests. The survey shows that in 2020, bankers are satisfied with the level of corporate governance of China’s banking industry. And the score is above 4.4 (full score is 5). At the same time, the banking industry has actively fulfilled its social responsibilities and continued to strengthen the work of poverty alleviation, green finance and consumer protection. The core theories and standards of ESG (focusing on environment, society and corporate governance) have been fully integrated into the corporate governance of the banking industry. More than 90% of bankers said that their banks (92.8%) have carried out green credit business.
7. Bankers spoke highly of the regulatory index system and approved measures to prevent, control and defuse risks and serve the real economy.
In 2020, China’s banking industry faced an unprecedented test. Regulators took preventing systemic risks as the bottom line and introduced corresponding policies to ensure the steady development of the banking industry. According to the survey, Chinese bankers’ overall evaluation of the main regulatory index system of the banking industry in 2020 is generally maintained at a high level. In particular, the capital adequacy ratio index. As the core index of bank supervision, has been rated the highest among the main supervision indicators for eight consecutive years. Under the strict supervision environment, the execution and inspection of capital supervision are more stringent.
8. Bankers are more satisfied with their work and life.
Despite the challenges faced by the banking sector in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Bankers’ satisfaction in work-related and life-related aspects has not been affected. On the contrary, faced with the challenges of the epidemic and the profound changes unseen in a century. Bankers have a stronger sense of responsibility to serve the country and a greater sense of accomplishment in their work. At the same time, due to China’s rapid and proper response to the epidemic and the resumption of work and production. Bankers’ satisfaction with their work and life has been improved to some extent.
9. Large state-owned commercial banks maintain obvious competitive advantages in many business fields.
China’s banking industry as a whole presents a relatively stable competitive pattern. And large commercial banks maintain obvious competitive advantages in many business areas. Among them, the four banks ranked top four in the peer competitiveness evaluation ranking of 11 business areas except small and micro credit, credit card, private banking, e-banking and fintech. From the perspective of subdivision, ICBC ranked first in 12 of the 16 business fields surveyed.
Bank of China ranked first in international settlement and trade financing business with its years of internationalization advantages. China Construction Bank maintained its leading position in small and micro credit and personal mortgage business with the ability of fintech. Agbank also ranks among the top in almost all areas of business. At the same time, the business competitiveness of joint-stock banks is also improving. Among which China Merchants Bank ranks top five in 7 businesses. And other joint-stock banks also have strong market competitiveness in some business fields.
10. The banking industry will work hard to ensure the “Six stability” and implement the “six guarantees” to help win the battle against the epidemic.
Facing the dual pressures of COVID-19 prevention and control and economic downturn. 83.4% of the bankers believed that improving the credit process and service efficiency is the top priority for the banking industry to support the real economy. Meanwhile, 82.6% of the bankers said that the banking industry will develop fintech, reduce operating costs, improve the quality and efficiency of financial services. So that fintech innovation results can better benefit people’s livelihood. And promote the healthy and sustainable development of the real economy. Emerging industries, as the most dynamic component of the economic system with the greatest growth potential. 68.1 percent of the bankers said that they will actively respond to the national strategy and support strategic emerging industries.
11. Bankers generally believe that the development of China’s banking industry will continue to improve during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with emphasis on scientific and technological innovation and deepening reform of the financial system.
The year 2020 will mark the end of completing the building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects and the 13th Five-Year Plan. It will also mark the historic convergence of the two centenary Goals and a new starting point for undertaking a new stage of development in the 14th Five-Year Plan period and the second Centenary Goal. According to the survey, more than half of the bankers surveyed expect the average GDP growth rate in the 14th Five-Year Plan period to be between 5.5% and 6.5%, which indicates that the bankers surveyed in the post-epidemic era generally believe that China’s economic development has strong resilience and great potential.
12. Make progress in the stable operation and management of the banking industry in the post-epidemic era, and strive to develop new opportunities and open new offices.
Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the banking industry has faced pressure such as rising non-performing loan ratio and declining asset quality. 60% of bankers believe that rural commercial banks have been hit the hardest. And more than half of them predict that the negative impact of the epidemic will subside by the end of 2021.
Facing the pressure of bad loans brought by the epidemic. More than 70% of bankers regard strict control over the quality of new loans and reduction of incremental risks as an important means to deal with the risk of bad loans. During the epidemic period, the banking industry and enterprises share difficulties. And more than half of the bankers believe that the implementation of targeted credit support to epidemic prevention enterprises has the most obvious effect. In addition, while bringing negative effects to the banking industry, the epidemic also created new opportunities. Over 70% of bankers believed that the epidemic played a role in accelerating the digital transformation of banks (86.1%) and accelerating the online migration of customers (73.8%).
13. Digital transformation is advancing steadily, and 5G promotes the construction of unmanned network.
Facing the change of industry competition pattern and the change of the behavior pattern of service demander and supplier. Digital transformation has become an important development direction of China’s banking industry. The banking industry is adapting to the development trend of the digital age, solving the problem of digital thinking and understanding. And actively using fintech means to enhance the ability to serve the real economy.
In terms of the progress of digital transformation. Commercial banks are generally in the preliminary exploration and basic application stage at present. According to the survey results, 37.9 percent of banks are in the preliminary exploration stage. 34.0 percent are in the basic application stage, and only 5.9 percent are in the deep integration stage. Due to their advantages in capital and talent, large commercial banks have made outstanding performance in digital transformation. According to the survey results, 41.4 percent of large commercial banks are in the stage of general application and 15.7 percent are in the stage of deep integration.
14. The banking industry implements the financial mission and promotes the development of inclusive finance.
Serving the overall situation of “six stability” and “six guarantees” is the starting point for most banks to develop inclusive finance. On this basis, commercial banks should give full play to their subjective initiative, increase the allocation of credit resources, enrich inclusive financial products with the help of fintech, and improve inclusive financial services.
67.5% of the surveyed bankers believe that the development of inclusive finance will not only provide “hematopoietic” ability for private, small and micro enterprises. But also generate new business growth points for commercial banks. 90.2 percent of the bankers said traditional loan business is still the first choice for banks to support the development of small, micro and private enterprises. However, when providing inclusive financial services to small, micro and private enterprises. 77.8% of the bankers said that small, micro and private enterprises could not provide collateral recognized by the bank. And the risk premium was high. 43.4 percent of the bankers hope that financial poverty alleviation can strengthen and perfect the due diligence exemption mechanism. And create an environment where people are willing to do things, dare to do things and can accomplish things. So as to provide incentives and leave enough space for bold exploration.
15. Bankers believe that the development of small and medium-sized banks is generally good, and small and medium-sized banks should stick to positioning and focus on the main business.
In recent years, the Financial Stability Commission of The State Council has continuously deployed the work of small and medium-sized banks, which reflects that the CPC Central Committee and The State Council attach great importance to the reform, development and stability of small and medium-sized banks. Risk disposal and high-quality development of small and medium-sized banks are crucial to preventing and defusing financial risks. The survey showed that the majority of bankers believe that most small and medium-sized banks are in good shape. But that risk prevention and control efforts still need to be further advanced.
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