2023 年是 AI 的突破之年。那么，24 年会发生什么？十位 IT 专业人士预测了他们认为人工智能将如何发展。
当 2023 年到来时，很少有观察家预测人工智能将对 IT、业务和整个世界产生影响。现在尘埃落定，是时候期待新的一年以及将定义 2024 年 AI 进步的趋势了。
我们通过电子邮件询问了 10 位专家，以了解他们对未来 12 个月人工智能发展的预期。以下是他们的见解。 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
1. LLM 导致 AGI
分析技术公司 Sisense 的人工智能高级总监 Avi Gruska 预测，2024 年的决定性 AI 趋势将是 ChatGPT 等大型语言模型 （LLM） 的广泛集成，朝着通用人工智能 （AGI） 发展。“这一趋势强调了劳动力动态的转变，人工智能通过支持核心技能和创造力来增强工作角色，特别是在数据分析方面。
2. 更强大的网络防御;狡猾的攻击者
Google Cloud 首席信息安全官 Phil Venables 表示，AI 已经为我们的网络防御者提供了巨大的优势，使他们能够提高能力、减少工作量并更好地抵御威胁。他解释说：“我们预计这些能力和优势将在 2024 年激增，因为防御者拥有该技术，因此可以根据特定的用例指导其开发。
另一方面，Venables预计攻击者将使用生成式AI和LLM来个性化并缓慢扩展其破坏性活动。“他们将尽其所能模糊良性和恶意人工智能应用程序之间的界限，因此防御者必须更快、更有效地采取行动做出回应。
3. AI走向多模态
Bain Capital Ventures的负责人Rak Garg预测，2024年最重要的AI趋势将是多模态检索架构的出现，多模态推理将在AI产品中占据中心位置。 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
受 ChatGPT 启发的 2023 年大多数 AI 产品都是文本的。“但用户更喜欢更具表现力的软件，从语音到视频，从音频到代码等等，在各种形式上都能满足他们的需求，”Garg 说。“如果我们能够让这些架构大规模工作，这将需要一组专门的检索增强初创公司在多模态中进行创新，我们可以解锁一种新的软件类别，提供更准确和更人性化的结果。
4. 生成式人工智能的进步
分析公司 Qlik 的 AI 主管 Nick Magnuson 预测，2024 年最显着的趋势将是生成式 AI 的第二幕。“早期迹象表明，它正在从投机实验周期中的概念刺激技术转变为对组织产生广泛实际影响的技术。
Magnuson 预测，通用的、一刀切的模型可能会失宠，取而代之的是定制的、特定于领域的应用程序。“这种演变在企业对企业环境中尤为明显，在这些环境中，对量身定制的人工智能解决方案的需求至关重要。”
5. AI 颠覆数据分析
数据可用性咨询公司Interzoid的创始人兼首席执行官鲍勃·布劳尔（Bob Brauer）表示，2024年人工智能最重要的趋势可能是生成式人工智能对传统数据分析实践的颠覆。“分析、可视化和数据管理的面貌将发生巨大变化，”他预测道。 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
Brauer警告说，对话分析以及自然语言处理（NLP）的进步将使许多当前和传统的商业智能方法过时。“随着这些人工智能驱动的对话工具的进步并变得更容易与之交互，它们将更擅长解释自然语音中提出的细微差别、上下文和复杂问题。”同时，语音和图像即输入等复杂接口将为更快、更深入、更清晰的数据查询打开大门。“所有这些都将使更有洞察力和有用的实时分析成为决策和业务战略的基础。
6. AI 去购物
生成式人工智能将影响人们发现产品和购物的方式，金融服务公司Synchrony的高级副总裁兼孵化主管Rachel Moore说。“这包括在由空间计算（如 Apple VisionPro）提供支持的沉浸式体验中，产品发现、预算和支付的潜在演变。”
事实上，AR和空间计算可能会创造一种自网上购物首次亮相以来我们从未见过的商业剧变。Moore说：“当搜索感觉真实并变得更加智能时，想象一下购买的倾向[以及]嵌入式支付的力量。“这都是一种体验，生成式人工智能为它的核心部分提供动力。”
7. 深度伪造将激增
信用报告公司TransUnion的全渠道认证高级总监Lance Hood预测，Deepfakes将成倍增加并变得更加复杂。“令人信服的人工智能深度伪造工具最近才开始广泛使用，但市场上可能有数十种产品能够欺骗身份验证解决方案，以获得对数字资产和在线账户的未经授权的访问。”
Hood 观察到，尤其是语音深度伪造技术，在短时间内变得非常复杂。“在听了几秒钟某人的声音后，这些工具可以令人信服地合成完整的语音配置文件，并用该声音说出任何内容，”他指出。“与此同时，其他人工智能工具使犯罪分子能够创建越来越令人信服的虚假图像和文件，这对处理大量个人身份信息（PII）和客户资产的行业构成了重大威胁。 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
8. 专业内容创作飙升
人工智能视频编辑公司Aug X Labs的首席执行官杰里米·托曼（Jeremy Toeman）认为，2024年将是人工智能真正为内容创作者工作的一年。“我们可以期待看到主要品牌使用人工智能生成的媒体，而不仅仅是快速的电子邮件回复或有趣的图像迭代，因为我们通过了正确使用该技术的技术、财务和法律障碍。”
Toeman说，用于专业内容创作的人工智能将使企业能够以更直接和更具吸引力的方式与客户互动。“越来越个性化和定制的内容将覆盖每个屏幕上的观众，”他说。
9. AI 人工智能将彻底改变软件工程
摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）工程师、平台和体验主管Sandhya Sridharan表示，集中式平台的快速发展以及AI/ML在软件开发生命周期的每个阶段（从构思和规划到生产部署管理）的集成将彻底改变软件工程。
这些趋势将简化和加速工程师工作流程的各个方面，减少认知过载，实现可重用的代码创建，简化代码搜索，并允许更快的故障排除。人工智能甚至可以生成测试代码，使开发人员能够专注于软件设计的创造性方面，并更快地将解决方案推向市场。Sridharan预测：“工程师平台与AI/ML之间的这种新关系将为软件开发时代铺平道路，在这个时代，智能自动化和人类创造力将协同作用，以前所未有的规模向全球客户和用户提供卓越的产品和服务。 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
10. AI治理加强
IBM 产品管理、数据和 AI 副总裁 Tarun Chopra 表示，到 2024 年，企业将越来越多地投资于 AI 治理。“我们将看到公司专注于他们的数据战略，重点是人工智能监管和数据质量，”他解释道。“组织将使用自动化和数字劳动力，让员工有更多时间专注于技能培养、发展自己的工作以及寻找利用人工智能发挥优势的新方法等任务，”Chopra 观察到。“组织将真正关注他们是否准备好满足全球即将出台的安全和透明度法规和政策，主动降低风险并监控公平性、偏见和漂移。”
英文原文：
Key AI Trends to Look For in 2024
2023 was AI’s breakout year. So, what’s in store for ‘24? Ten IT pros predict how they think artificial intelligence will evolve.
When 2023 dawned, few observers predicted the impact AI would have on IT, business, and the world at large. Now that the dust has settled, it’s time to look forward to a new year and the trends that will define AI progress in 2024.
We queried 10 experts via email to find out how they expect AI to evolve over the next 12 months. Here are their insights. 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
1. LLMs lead to AGIs
The defining AI trend of 2024 will be the widespread integration of large language models (LLMs), like ChatGPT, progressing toward artificial general intelligence (AGI), predicts Avi Gruska, senior director, AI, at analytics’ technology firm Sisense. “This trend emphasizes the transformation in workforce dynamics, where AI enhances job roles by supporting core skills and creativity, especially in data analytics.
2. Stronger cyber defense; craftier attackers
AI is already providing a tremendous advantage for our cyber defenders, enabling them to improve capabilities, reduce toil, and better protect against threats, says Phil Venables, CISO of Google Cloud. “We expect these capabilities and benefits to surge in 2024, given that the defenders own the technology and thus can direct its development with specific use cases in mind,” he explains.
On the other hand, Venables expects that attackers will use generative AI and LLMs to personalize and slowly scale their destructive campaigns. “They will use anything they can to blur the line between benign and malicious AI applications, so defenders must act quicker and more efficiently in response.”
3. AI goes multi-modal
The most important AI trend of 2024 will be the emergence of multi-modal retrieval architectures and multi-modal inference taking center stage in AI products, predicts Rak Garg, a principal at Bain Capital Ventures.
Most 2023 AI products inspired by ChatGPT have been textual. “But users prefer more expressive software that meets them in every modality, from voice to video to audio to code and more,” Garg says. “If we can get these architectures to work at scale, which would require a specialized set of retrieval augmentation startups to innovate in multi-modal, we could unlock a new category of software that provides much more accurate and human results.” 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
4. Generative AI advances
The most notable trend in 2024 will be generative AI’s second act, predicts Nick Magnuson, head of AI at analytics firm Qlik. “Early signs point to it transitioning from a conceptually stimulating technology within a speculative cycle of experimentation to one driving practical impacts to organizations broadly.”
Generic, one-size-fits-all models are likely to fall out of favor, replaced by customized, domain-specific applications, Magnuson forecasts. “This evolution will be particularly evident in business-to-business contexts, where the need for tailored AI solutions is paramount.”
5. AI disrupts data analysis
The most significant trend in AI in 2024 will likely be generative AI’s disruption of traditional data analysis practices, says Bob Brauer founder and CEO of Interzoid, a data usability consulting firm. “The face of analytics, visualization, and data management will change dramatically,” he predicts.
Conversational analytics, along with advances in natural language processing (NLP), will render many current and traditional approaches to business intelligence obsolete, Brauer warns. “As these AI-powered conversational tools advance and become easier to interact with, they will become more adept at interpreting nuance, context, and complex questions asked in natural speech.” Meanwhile, sophisticated interfaces, such as voice and image-as-input, will open the door to faster, in-depth, and well-articulated data queries. “All of this will enable more insightful and useful real-time analytics to serve as a basis of decision-making and business strategy.” 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
6. AI goes shopping
Generative AI will affect the way people discover products and shop, says Rachel Moore, senior vice president and head of incubation at financial services firm Synchrony. “This includes the potential evolution of product discovery, budgeting, and payments in immersive experiences powered by spatial computing, like Apple VisionPro.”
In fact, AR and spatial computing could create a type of commerce upheaval that we haven’t seen since online shopping debuted. “When searching feels real and becomes more intelligent, imagine the propensity to buy [along with] the power of embedded payments,” Moore says. “It’s all one experience, with generative AI powering core pieces of it.”
7. Deepfakes will proliferate
Deepfakes will multiply and become more sophisticated, predicts Lance Hood, senior director of omnichannel authentication at credit reporting firm TransUnion. “Convincing AI deepfake tools only started becoming widely available recently, but there are probably dozens of offerings on the market capable of fooling identity verification solutions to gain unauthorized access to digital assets and online accounts.” 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
Voice deepfake technology in particular, has grown very sophisticated in a short period of time, Hood observes. “After listening to just a few seconds of somebody’s voice, these tools can convincingly synthesize a full voice profile and say anything in that voice,” he notes. “Meanwhile, other AI tools give criminals the ability to create increasingly convincing fake imagery and documents, which poses a major threat to industries working with large amounts of personal identifiable information (PII) and customer assets.”
8. Professional content creation soars
Jeremy Toeman, CEO of AI video editing company Aug X Labs, believes that 2024 will be the year when AI really gets to work for content creators. “We can expect to see the use of AI-generated media by major brands, not just quick email replies or iterations of playful imagery, as we pass the technical, financial, and legal hurdles for proper use of the technology.”
AI for professional content creation will allow businesses to engage with their customers in much more directed and engaging ways, Toeman says. “Increasingly personalized and bespoke content will reach audiences at every screen,” he states. 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
9. AI will revolutionize software engineering
The rapid evolution of centralized platforms and the integration of AI/ML in every stage of the software development lifecycle — from ideation and planning to production deployment management — will revolutionize software engineering, says Sandhya Sridharan, head of engineers, platform and experience, at JPMorgan Chase.
These trends will streamline and accelerate every aspect of an engineer’s workflow, reducing cognitive overload, enabling reusable code creation, simplifying code searches, and allowing faster troubleshooting. AI will even generate test code, allowing developers to focus on software design’s creative aspects and bring solutions to market faster. “This new relationship between the engineer’s platform and AI/ML will pave the way for an era of software development where intelligent automation and human creativity synergize to deliver exceptional products and services at unprecedented scale to customers and users worldwide,” Sridharan predicts. 数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）
10. AI governance strengthens
Enterprises will increasingly invest in AI governance in 2024, says Tarun Chopra, vice president, IBM product management, data, and AI. “We’re going to see companies focusing on their data strategies, with an emphasis on AI regulation and data quality,” he explains. “Organizations will use automation and digital labor to allow more time for their employees to focus on tasks like skill building, evolving their own work, and finding new ways to use AI to their advantage,” Chopra observes. “Organizations are really going to be focusing on their readiness for meeting upcoming safety and transparency regulations and policies worldwide, mitigating risk proactively and monitoring for fairness, bias, and drift.”
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