做投资、做企业、做事有没有捷径？如果有的话，就是掌握规律，按照规律办事。近年有些朋友建议我总结一下中国经济运行的基本规律，方便大家了解和运用，限于智识有限以及忙碌交织，一直未能落笔。近来重读经典，抚今追昔，遂一日而就。初稿洋洋洒洒1万多字，后来割爱、删繁就简为2500字，大家几分钟就能读完。
从事了20年的宏观经济研究，先后在公共政策部门、金融机构等工作，结合长期以来的观察、实践以及国内外研究成果，概括出中国经济的十大规律，才疏学浅，难免有遗珠之憾，野人献曝，与你分享。看懂宏观趋势，把握投资机会，选择优于努力。
第一大规律，长期的经济增长模型取决于资本、劳动和技术三大要素，这是世界各国兴衰的第一性原理。中国经济过去高速增长受益于三大红利：改革开放红利、全球化红利和人口红利，全球化带来了资本和技术，1962-1976年婴儿潮带来了劳动力，改革开放则通过制度变革将这三大要素、两大红利结合起来，释放了14亿人创造财富的巨大潜力。现在这三大要素和三大红利的内涵均已发生变化，政策和战略正在作出调整，推动中国经济从高速增长转向高质量发展。作者原来的国务院发展研究中心团队在2010年提出“增长阶段转换”，作者下海以后在2014年提出“新5%比旧8%好”“经济L型”，2017年提出“新周期”。
第二大规律，地方GDP锦标赛引发县域竞争，实现了政府和企业的激励相容，各地区呈万马奔腾、你追我赶的势头。GDP增长快的地区，地方干部升迁的快，因此地方政府大力招商引资，改善营商环境，积极为企业服务，政府和企业心往一块想，劲往一起使。这是国际学术领域总结的中国经济发动机的一大秘密。
第三大规律，基础设施是典型的公共产品，具有强外部性，容易由于搭便车和公地悲剧现象导致供给不足进而制约经济增长，因此当期由政府提供，长期再通过经济增长和税收增长受益。中国是超前大规模基础设施建设的受益者，展现了举国体制的优势。过去40年，公路、桥梁、高铁、机场等大规模超前建设，大幅降低了企业物流成本，提升了物流效率，是中国快速崛起成为“世界工厂”“世界制造中心”的法宝。3G、4G的超前建设，带来了互联网经济爆发式增长，移动支付、新零售、共享经济等蓬勃兴起，中美引领了过去20年全球互联网经济的大发展。现在中国正在新能源、5G、充电桩、数据中心、人工智能、特高压等新基建领域进行超前布局，培育新经济、新技术、新产业。1978年中国人均GDP不如印度，2021年是印度的3倍多。作者在2020年初倡导“新基建”，专著《新基建》荣获中组部第五届党员培训创新教材奖。
第四大规律，企业家精神是最重要的生产要素之一，企业家承担了创新创业的巨大风险，相应地获得剩余价值。中国不断推动资本、劳动、土地、数据信息、技术等要素市场化，并加大产权保护力度，企业家将上述生产要素组合起来参与市场竞争。中国涌现出一批具有“企业家精神”的企业家，成为时代的弄潮儿。
第五大规律，中国经济高速增长带来了巨大的财富机会，成为全球创造财富最好的沃土。中国拥有14亿人口的全球最大统一市场，过去40年以年均9%以上的实际GDP增长，名义经济增速达到12%，这就是宏观上的投资回报率，远超世界上同期任何国家。40年前，中国人给世界留下的印象是一穷二白，40年后，中国成为全球奢侈品消费的第一大国。国民经济虽然有几百个行业，几千家上市公司，但是化繁为简，可以分为三大类：辛苦不赚钱、赚辛苦钱、赚钱不辛苦，从投资的角度，选择优于努力，赚钱不辛苦的行业经常诞生大牛股。
第六大规律，经济周期是市场经济环境下的客观存在和规律，由库存调整、产能调整、创新集聚发生及其退潮、人性等因素嵌套而成，经济总是从复苏、过热、滞涨、衰退再到复苏周而复始。宏观调控时松时紧进行逆周期调节，目的是防止经济大起大落。中国经济短周期的库存周期3-4年一轮，中周期的产能周期7-10年一轮，长周期的创新周期40-50年一轮。作者出版过《房地产周期》《新周期》两部专著进行阐述。
第七大规律，投资时钟是国际上基于经济周期的从上到下的主流大类资产配置框架，在美国、中国等基本适用。以产出缺口和通胀两个指标，可以将经济周期划分为衰退、复苏、过热和滞胀四个阶段，资产类别划分为债券、股票、大宗商品和现金四类。在经济周期依次沿“衰退—复苏—过热—滞胀”循环轮转时，债市、股市、大宗商品、现金的收益依次领跑大势。投资者可以通过识别基本面和货币政策的重要拐点，在周期阶段变换中把握趋势获利。作者在泽平宏观会员课程里进行了详细分析。
第八大规律，股市是货币的晴雨表。教科书上经常讲“股市是经济的晴雨表”，但是在现实中的大部分时期并不适用，根据我们长期的实证检验，股市与货币具有强正相关性，因此我们提出了“股市是货币的晴雨表”，在业内流传广泛。简单讲，在经济衰退末期复苏初期、货币处于宽松状态的时候，股市往往有比较好的收益表现；在经济过热、货币收紧的时候，反而股市表现较差。这种现象可以根据DDM模型进行解释，股价是企业盈利除以无风险利率和风险偏好。这是实战经济学与学院派的不同。作者在2014年基于经济周期、投资时钟和股市是货币的晴雨表，预测“5000点不是梦”，主要逻辑是无风险利率下降和风险偏好提升。
第九大规律，房地产长期看人口、中期看土地、短期看金融。人口是需求，土地是供给，金融是杠杆。人口流入、土地供给不足的地区，如果赶上金融宽松，往往容易出现房价上涨，反之则下跌。跟着人口流动去买房，从国际经验看，人口在长期往都市圈城市群和区域中心城市集聚，房地产市场将变得日益分化。2021年中国城镇化率已经达到64.7%，未来70%以上城市的房子可能存在过剩风险，大约只有20%-30%的城市房子存在投资价值。大道至简。我们提出的这一标准分析框架被广泛采用。基于这一分析框架，2015年在房价大涨前夜预测“一线房价翻一倍”，被评为年度十大经典预测。在长期，三大硬通货抗通胀，跑赢印钞机。
第十大规律，房地产是周期之母。房地产是国民经济第一大支柱行业，带动的上下游产业链特别长，高达50多个行业，通过上下游影响企业投资。地方政府依赖土地财政，房地产通过土地财政影响政府投资。房地产是居民最主要的资产配置，通过财富效应影响居民消费和信心。房地产稳，则经济稳。十次危机九次地产，全球历次大的金融危机大部分都是由于房地产泡沫崩盘所致，其他资产难以产生如此巨大的冲击。根据美国、日本、德国、新加坡等国际经验，房地产的长效机制是城市群战略、人地挂钩、金融稳定和房地产税。还有最后十年时间窗口。
翻译：
Are there shortcuts to making investments, businesses, and things? If anything, it is to master the rules and act according to the rules. In recent years, some friends suggested that I summarize the basic laws of China’s economic operation for your convenience to understand and apply, but I have not been able to write due to my limited intellectual knowledge and busy interweaving. Recently, I reread the classics and reminisced about the present and the past. The first draft was over 10,000 words long. Later, it was reduced to 2,500 words, which can be read in a few minutes.
Engaged in macroeconomic research for 20 years, has worked in public policy departments, financial institutions, etc., combined with long-term observation, practice and research results at home and abroad, summarized the ten laws of China’s economy, the talent is not enough to learn, it is inevitable that there is a bead of regret, wild man to expose, share with you. Understand macro trends, grasp investment opportunities, choose better than effort.
The first is that the long-run model of economic growth depends on capital, labor and technology, which is the first principle of the rise and fall of countries around the world.
China’s rapid economic growth in the past benefited from three major dividends: reform and opening-up dividend, globalization dividend and demographic dividend. Globalization brought capital and technology, and the 1962-1976 baby boom brought labor. Reform and opening-up combined these three factors and two major dividends through institutional changes, unleashing the huge potential of wealth creation for 1.4 billion people. Now, the three major factors and the three dividends have changed, and the policies and strategies are being adjusted to shift the Chinese economy from high-speed growth to high-quality development. The author’s original team from the Development Research Center of The State Council proposed “the transition of growth stage” in 2010. After the author went to the sea, he proposed “the new 5% is better than the old 8%” and “the L-shaped economy” in 2014, and “the new cycle” in 2017.
The second law is that the local GDP championship has triggered competition among counties, which has realized the compatibility of incentives from the government and enterprises.
All regions have a momentum of chasing each other. In regions with fast GDP growth, local officials are promoted quickly. Therefore, local governments make great efforts to attract investment, improve the business environment, and actively serve enterprises. The government and enterprises share the same vision and strive to work together. This is one of the secrets of China’s economic engine summed up by international academics.
The third rule is that infrastructure is a typical public product with strong externality, which is easy to result in insufficient supply and restrict economic growth due to free-riding and tragedy of public land.
Therefore, it is provided by the government in the current period and will benefit from economic growth and tax growth in the long run. China has been the beneficiary of advanced large-scale infrastructure construction, demonstrating the advantages of the nationwide system. Over the past 40 years, the large-scale and advanced construction of roads, Bridges, high-speed railways and airports has greatly reduced logistics costs and improved logistics efficiency for enterprises. This is the key to China’s rapid rise as a “world factory” and “world manufacturing center”. The advanced construction of 3G and 4G has brought about explosive growth of the Internet economy, with the booming of mobile payment, new retail and sharing economy.
China and the US have led the great development of the global Internet economy in the past 20 years. At present, China is making advanced layout in new infrastructure areas such as new energy, 5G, charging piles, data centers, artificial intelligence and ultra-high voltage, and cultivating new economy, new technology and new industries. China’s per capita GDP was lower than India’s in 1978 and more than three times that of India in 2021. The author advocated “New Infrastructure” at the beginning of 2020, and his monograph “New Infrastructure” won the 5th Party Member Training Innovation Textbook Award of the Organization Department of the CPC Central Committee.
The fourth law is that entrepreneurship is one of the most important factors of production.
Entrepreneurs undertake great risks of innovation and entrepreneurship and obtain surplus value accordingly. China continues to promote the marketization of capital, labor, land, data, information, technology and other factors, and strengthen the protection of property rights. Entrepreneurs combine these factors of production to participate in market competition. A number of entrepreneurs with “entrepreneurial spirit” have emerged in China, becoming the tide of The Times.
Fifth, China’s rapid economic growth has brought huge wealth opportunities and become the best fertile land for wealth creation in the world.
China, the world’s largest unified market of 1.4 billion people, has averaged real GDP growth of more than 9 per cent a year and nominal economic growth of 12 per cent over the past 40 years. That is a macro return on investment far outstripping any other country in the world over the same period. Forty years ago, Chinese people left the world with the impression of poverty. 40 years later, China has become the world’s largest consumer of luxury goods. Although there are hundreds of industries and thousands of listed companies in the national economy. They can be divided into three categories: hard work without profit, hard money and money without hard work. From the perspective of investment. The choice is better than hard work and the industry that makes money without hard work is often born.
The sixth law is the objective existence and law of the market economy environment.
It is formed by the nesting of factors such as inventory adjustment, capacity adjustment, innovation agglomeration and ebb tide, and human nature. The economy always goes from recovery, overheating, stagflation, recession and recovery. The purpose of counter-cyclical regulation is to prevent sharp fluctuations in the economy. China’s economy has a short-cycle inventory cycle of 3-4 years, a medium-cycle production capacity cycle of 7-10 years. And a long-cycle innovation cycle of 40-50 years. The author has published two monographs “Real Estate Cycle” and “New Cycle” to elaborate.
The seventh rule, investment clock is the international mainstream asset allocation framework from top to bottom based on the economic cycle, which is basically applicable in the United States, China and other countries.
Using two indicators of output gap and inflation. You can divide the economic cycle into four stages: recession, recovery, overheating and stagflation. And asset classes into bonds, equities, commodities and cash. As the economic cycle turns from recession to recovery to overheating to stagflation, bond, stock, commodity and cash returns lead the way. Investors can profit by identifying important inflection points in fundamentals and monetary policy and grasp trends in the cycle phase changes. The author makes a detailed analysis in the macromembership course of Zepin.
The eighth rule is that the stock market is a barometer of money.
It is often said in textbooks that “the stock market is the barometer of the economy”. But it is not applicable in most periods of reality. According to our long-term empirical test, the stock market has a strong positive correlation with the currency. So we put forward “the stock market is the barometer of the currency”, which is widely circulated in the industry. Simply put, stocks tend to do better at the end of a recession when money is loose and the recovery is in its early stages.
When the economy is overheating and money is tightening, the stock market underperforms. This phenomenon can be explained by the DDM model. In which stock prices are corporate earnings divided by the risk-free interest rate and risk appetite. This is the difference between field economics and academia. In 2014, the author predicted that “5000 points is not a dream” based on the economic cycle. The investment clock and the stock market being the barometer of the currency. The main logic was the decrease of risk-free interest rate and the increase of risk appetite.
The ninth law, real estate long-term population, mid-term land, short-term finance.
Population is demand, land is supply, and finance is leverage. Areas with population inflow and insufficient land supply are prone to rising housing prices if they catch up with financial easing, and falling housing prices if not. With the flow of population to buy a house, from the international experience. The population in the long-term agglomeration of metropolitan areas and regional central cities. The real estate market will become increasingly divided.
In 2021, China’s urbanization rate has reached 64.7%. In the future, more than 70% cities may have excess housing risk. And only about 20%-30% of urban housing has investment value. The road is simple. This standard analysis framework we propose is widely adopted. Based on this analysis framework, the prediction of “double the first-tier housing price” on the eve of the housing price boom in 2015 was rated as one of the top ten classic predictions of the year. In the long run, the three hard currencies resist inflation and beat the printing press.
The tenth rule is that real estate is the mother of cycles.
As the first pillar industry of the national economy. Real estate drives a particularly long upstream and downstream industrial chain of more than 50 industries. Which influences enterprise investment through upstream and downstream. Local governments depend on land finance, and real estate influences government investment through land finance. Real estate is the most important asset allocation of residents, which affects residents’ consumption and confidence through wealth effect. When real estate is stable, the economy is stable. Nine times out of ten real estate crises, most of the world’s biggest financial crises were caused by the collapse of real estate bubbles. Other assets are hard to produce such a huge impact. According to the international experience of the United States, Japan, Germany, Singapore and other countries. The long-term mechanism of real estate is urban agglomeration strategy, human-land linkage, financial stability and real estate tax. There’s a final ten-year window.
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