大家下午好，首先做下自我介绍，我是30年的信息化老兵，目前专职做IT顾问，起了一个比较好听的名字“共享CIO”。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
我同时兼职任江苏省企业信息化协会和安徽CIO协会的系统架构首席专家，以及CIO时代学院制造分会的会长。之前曾任职A.O.史密斯、我乐家居、柯菲平的CIO，其中在A.O.史密斯时间最长，前后加起来超过十五年。
为什么有今天的话题？主要是从上周末开始，有好几个朋友咨询我网上办公的事宜，同时在微信群以及朋友圈中看到很多朋友在求助口罩和消毒水，明天（2月10日）就是企业开工的第一天，我觉得很多老板都很焦虑，企业不能无限期停工，房租、人员工资、和折旧等成本每天都在发生，怎么开工呢？因此前几天写了篇《网上办公策略》，算是对诸多朋友的回复。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
首先讲网上办公，网上办公短期内势在必行。有些人还在彷徨，到底要不要做？怎么做？我觉得不必要彷徨，要尽快实施，有以下几个原因：
第一，短期内很难有足够的口罩。这几天，大家都看到朋友圈群里面的口罩消毒水的需求量很大。实际上，全国每天的产能只有2000万只，但我们每天要出门上班的人数至少有两三亿。这个缺口巨大，短期内想补足是很难的，所以要面对现实。
第二，如果大家都去办公室上班，人员聚集，也无法保证安全。网上的数据大家每天都能看到，疑似病例的增长每天都要4000左右，确诊人数每天有两三千，所以目前还是很危险的时期。这次武汉肺炎和上次的SARS不一样，虽然治愈率要高很多，但传染性更强，从数据上就能看出来。短期内都去办公室上班是不现实的。
第三，短期内解除疫情警报的可能性非常小，虽然非湖北地区肺炎的确诊率连续几天在下降，但是数量（500多）还是不小。解除疫情最理想的时间窗口是什么呢？个人认为，除武汉之外（当然武汉会控制好的）连续14天没有新增病例。想要达到这个时间窗口，估计至少也要一两个月。
所以针对以上三点，大家要做好短期内网上办公的思想准备。对于企业来说，不能不开工不能不干活，企业的固定成本，房租、人员工资、厂房设备折旧等等每天都在发生。开工要有方法，对于办公室人员来说网上办公就是很好的方式。从长远来说，网上办公也是未来降低成本的途径之一，可以减少房租、交通、办公用设备、以及吃喝拉撒的开销，所以不排除有公司把部分岗位或者有的行业在疫情过后转成网上办公了。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
那么我们如何实现网上办公呢？我认为只要做好两件事情：
第一，建立网上办公平台。因为大家都在家，不是在办公室，如何通畅的办公。
第二，就是在家也能使用公司的应用系统，如ERP、MES、CRM、OA等。
网上办公平台实际上就是解决三个场景：开会、交流、签字。
第一个场景：开会，开会其实就是需要一个视频会议系统，解决几个人开会、几十个人甚至几百个人开会，像今天我们用的Webex系统一样。视频会议技术已经有十几年的发展，很成熟，专门解决远程开会，使用电脑或者手机均可。
针对视频会议系统的选型，有两点提醒注意。第一，如果有国外的分支机构，那么视频会议系统的部署一定要全球化的部署，否则由于国内和国外的网络互联互通问题，影响效果。第二，视频的压缩传输能力，视频的压缩传输是视频会议系统的核心技术，简单地说就是对带宽的要求，这差异很大。好的视频会议系统对带宽的要求不高，也有系统对带宽要求挺高，这样也会影响使用效果。
第二个场景：交流，交流的场景实际上最多，在公司几个人召集起来讨论很容易，包括面试、同供应商交流、同客户交流都属于交流场景。对于交流，实际上视频会议系统也是可以的，但需要费用。现在疫情期间视频会议系统都是免费的，起码100方以下免费，疫情结束之后，该收费还是要收费。当然，免费系统也很多，社交工具都是，如QQ、微信，大家用得也很熟练，日常的交流，音频视频都没有问题。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
第三个场景：签字，日常工作中要找领导签字，对于OA系统使用成熟的公司，这些都不是事，他们已经实现在线的申请审批，但对于没有OA系统或者OA系统使用还不成熟的公司，那么可以借此机会，把工作流都搬到线上，也不是很难的一件事。不仅针对当下的网上办公，对于公司长远发展来说也是一件好事，可以大幅提升办公效率。因此强烈建议做的不好的或者还没有做的企业，抓紧做起来。
以上为网上办公的三个场景，建议最好是一个平台同时解决这三个场景，现在这样的平台也是有的。如果用三套系统分别解决三个场景也是可以的，但是会有点麻烦，三个系统相互独立，都有用户管理，当然也可以做用户集成。
另外一个建议，要建立一个配套的管理机制，比如考核、工作量的计算、考勤等。如果有公司想要长期网上办公，配套机制就非常重要了，在家办公，不是在办公室，人都见不到，管理还是非常重要的，机制就是保证效率。
前面讲到了三大场景，是网上办公必须的，但还有一些锦上添花的场景，如电子签章系统，与OA系统集成，这样就不用去公司盖章了，可以用来减少跟供应商、客户、代理商之间的往来。第二个是电子发票，与ERP集成，这样就不用去公司开票了。此外，还有SCM、CRM，SCM实现单据线上的传输和对账，不用进行线下单据的交接，如果客户是项目型的，CRM还要包括项目现场的管理，包括项目的测试、检验、验收等和网上办公平台相结合。RPA我相信是很多公司未来会越来越重视，现在公司都追求少人化，这就是比较好的方案之一，固定的重复的流程让机器人做，而不是人去做。目前有很多的成功案例，特别在银行、证券和保险行业都有成熟的应用。云文件夹，实际上就是共享文件夹，大家交换文件比较方便，同时还能管理好文件的版本、权限问题。
有了网上办公平台，网上办公这件事其实才做了一半。公司的应用系统在家也要能使用，如ERP、MES、SCM、CRM、BI、HR等，其实方法也简单，建普通的VPN就可以了，实现也不难。现在超过80%的应用都是B/S架构，就是用浏览器能直接打开，有了VPN，在家就可以使用绝大部分应用。当然不用VPN也可以，把应用直接发布到公网上，这样安全性不好。VPN相当于把公司内网扩展到了家庭，在家使用感觉跟在公司一样，安全性就会好很多。当然还有一些老系统，是C/S架构，必须要装客户端才能使用，这种系统对带宽要求比较高，普通的VPN可能解决不了，可以用远程终端或者一些工具软件解决，都是成熟的技术，很容易做到。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
有一个应用系统，很特殊，即呼叫中心系统，很多公司有。特殊在它的硬件系统太复杂，要把坐席设到家里，建了VPN还不够，要在硬件上做适当调整，原来的软件系统不需要做任何变更，在家一样能实现弹屏和录音。另外，提醒大家，现在有云端的呼叫中心平台，SaaS版，公司不需要投入任何硬件，把云端的呼叫中心平台嵌入自己的应用系统即可，按坐席数量交服务费，而且随时可以增减坐席，网上办公更不成问题。
上面我们讲了要想实现网上办公，一是要有网上办公的平台，二是建立VPN，在家里能使用应用系统。这样公司每个部门去一些必须的、值班的人员，部分员工在家办公。
接下来谈一谈疫情对家居行业的影响。分成短期影响和长期影响，短期影响疫情可能负面的偏多一点，因为短期的影响还是比较大，一两个月大街上没有人。家居行业的特点是，销售靠门店出售，大多门店在卖场、商场、或者是街边，目前几乎都不营业，不是销售业绩简单的下滑，而是几乎没有营收。那些现金流不足三个月的企业，面临的挑战就更直接了。理想状况三个月能结束，由于大家心理上的原因，市场的恢复也要有一个缓慢复苏的过程。因此，一部分公司关店、甚至裁员，都是可以预见的。
大的挑战面前，不同的企业有不同的表现，我记得SARS那一年，对大家的挑战也很大，但有些企业就不裁员，不能营业怎么办呢？就做培训，尤其是对一线的培训，同时搞操作技能竞赛、梳理流程、推进信息化等等。
现在也是考验老板的时候，某种程度上也是考验老板人品的时候。为了活下去，维持现金流，跟大家商量，工资先发一部分，另一部分年底发，甚至直接降薪、取消奖金等等，大家对老板有信心吗？数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
一月份之前，大部分公司对2020年有很好的规划，如加大市场推广、加大新品的研发、销售额要增长多少、项目投入、基建投入、开店、IT项目投入等等，现在这些目标不是取消也要做重大的调整，现在问题不是活得好不好，而是能不能活下去，大家都要进入了过冬状态，那些投入比较大的项目，要缓一缓。在疫情期间苦练内功，提升了自己的核心竞争力，只要熬过这段时间，必定有一部分企业熬不过去，市场恢复后会重新洗牌，就能抢更多的奶酪，危机同时也是机遇。
有个故事，有两个人被老虎追，只要跑过对方就行。现在遇到这么大的危机，老虎就是危机，作为企业来说，只要跑赢同行就行。
长期影响：第一个我认为就是布局中心化。去年国家也做了很大的改变，即中心城市化发展，长三角、珠三角、京津冀、成渝等，之前要南北平衡、东西平衡。实际上国外都是这种模式，包括欧美和日本。将来长三角、珠三角、京津冀会形成巨大的虹吸效应，包括人口。这次疫情，我认为会加速这种趋势化，从医疗资源来看，中心城市绝对领先，无论是三甲医院数量、床位数、和医生人数等。此外，中心城市政府的治理能力很强，应对突发事件的应变能力和处理能力都很强，这些都构成对年轻人的强力吸引，因此这次疫情之后，大家也会加强对城市中心化的认识。
我查了2019年的数据，长三角加珠三角的GDP占全国的1/3，近几年人口增长也比较多，加上京津冀和成渝，GDP超过全国的一半，未来会更多。对家居行业来说，主要的消费群体会集中在这些中心城市。家居行业大部分营收靠门店、靠终端，线上份额很少，以前家居企业的全国布局，一线城市、省会城市、市县，一层层的布局，未来要按中心化来布局，包括未来的营销团队、门店、工厂建设、和物流中心等，不需要均衡布局。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
第二个我认为是渠道战略调整，尤其是门店的运营战略。这次疫情增加了线上流量，更强化了人们线上活动的习惯。此外，消费者也发生了变化，越来越年轻，80后、90后是主流，00后也登上舞台，他们都是网上一族。后面的线上份额越来越大，当然对家居行业，有其特殊性，也不是不需要门店，而是要转变门店的经营战略，把之前的主要靠自然客流，转变为线上线下融合，线下以体验为主。门店自然客流少，门店出样有限，门店除了传统的展示之外，还要有其它高科技的手段，如AR、AI等，增加一些互动模式和融入模式，给消费者更多更好的体验。
今天的分享就到这里，谢谢大家！
翻译：
Good afternoon, everyone. First of all, I would like to introduce myself. I am a 30-year veteran of information technology, and now I am a full-time IT consultant.
I also served as the chief expert of system architecture of Jiangsu Enterprise Informatization Association and Anhui CIO Association, as well as the president of Manufacturing Branch of CIO Times College. Prior to that, he served as the CIO of A.O. Smith, Worelife and Copphipin, including at A.O. Smith was the longest, with more than 15 years added up.
Why today’s topic? Since last weekend, several friends have consulted me about my online work, and at the same time, I have seen many friends in wechat group and circle of friends asking for masks and disinfectant. Tomorrow (February 10th) will be the first day of business operation, and I think many bosses are very anxious. The company cannot shut down indefinitely, and the costs of rent, wages and depreciation are happening every day. How do you start? So a few days ago I wrote an online office Strategy, which is a reply to many friends.
First of all, online office, online office is imperative in the short term.
Some people are still wondering whether to do it or not? How to do that? I feel unnecessary hesitation, to implement as soon as possible, there are several reasons:数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
First, it’s hard to get enough masks in the short term. These days, we all see that there is a great demand for mask disinfectant in the circle of friends. In fact, the national production capacity is only 20 million a day, but the number of people who have to go to work every day is at least 200 million to 300 million. The gap is huge and will be difficult to fill in the short term, so be realistic.
Second, if everyone goes to the office and people gather together, there is no guarantee of safety. As you can see on the Internet every day, the number of suspected cases is increasing by about 4,000 every day, and the number of confirmed cases is two or three thousand every day. So it is still a very dangerous time. This Wuhan pneumonia is different from the last SARS. Although the cure rate is much higher, it is more infectious, which can be seen from the data. It is not practical to go to the office for a short time.
Third, it is very unlikely that the alert will be lifted in the short term. Although the confirmed rate of pneumonia in non-Hubei areas has been declining for several days, the number (more than 500) is still not small. What is the ideal window of time to end the epidemic? In my opinion, no new cases have been reported for 14 consecutive days outside of Wuhan (which of course will be under control). It will take at least one or two months to reach this time window.
So for the above three points, we should do a good job in the short term online office thought preparation.
For an enterprise, it is impossible not to start work and not to work. The fixed cost of the enterprise, such as rent, personnel wages, plant and equipment depreciation, etc., occurs every day. There is a way to start work, for office workers online office is a very good way. In the long run, online working is also one of the ways to reduce costs in the future, which can reduce the cost of rent, transportation, office equipment, as well as eating and sleeping expenses. Therefore, it is not ruled out that some companies will switch some positions or some industries to online working after the epidemic.
So how do we implement online office? I think we just need to do two things:
First, establish an online office platform. Because everyone is at home, not in the office, how to smooth office.
Second, you can also use the company’s application system at home, such as ERP, MES, CRM, OA and so on.
Online office platform is actually to solve three scenarios: meeting, communication, signing.
The first scenario: meeting. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
Meeting actually needs a video conference system to solve the meeting of several people, dozens or even hundreds of people, like the Webex system we use today. Video conferencing technology has been in development for more than a decade, and is very mature, specifically for remote meetings, using computers or mobile phones.
For the selection of video conference system, there are two reminders. First, if there are foreign branches, then the deployment of video conference system must be global deployment, otherwise due to the domestic and foreign network connectivity problems, the effect will be affected. Second, video compression transmission ability, video compression transmission is the core technology of video conference system, simply said is the bandwidth requirements, which vary greatly. Good video conferencing systems have low bandwidth requirements, and some systems have high bandwidth requirements, which can also affect the use effect.
The second scenario is communication.
In fact, there are most communication scenarios. It is easy for several people in the company to gather together for discussion, including interview, communication with suppliers and communication with customers. For communication, a virtual video conferencing system is also available, but costs. Now the video conference system is free during the epidemic. At least less than 100 parties free, after the epidemic is over, the fee will still be charged. Of course, there are also many free systems. Social tools, such as QQ and wechat, are used proficiently. There is no problem in daily communication, audio and video.
The third scenario: signature
The third scenario: signature, which needs to be signed by the leader in daily work. For companies with mature OA system, this is not a problem, as they have already realized online application approval, but for companies without OA system or immature OA system, it is not difficult to take this opportunity to move the workflow online. Not only for the current online office, it is also a good thing for the long-term development of the company, which can greatly improve the office efficiency. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that enterprises do not do well or have not done it, do it quickly.
The above three scenes for online office, it is best to solve the three scenes at the same time a platform, now such a platform is also some. If you use three sets of systems to solve the three scenarios, but it will be a little troublesome, the three systems are independent of each other, all have user management, of course, you can also do user integration.
Another suggestion is to establish a supporting management mechanism数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
Another suggestion is to establish a supporting management mechanism, such as assessment, workload calculation, attendance and so on. If you have a company that wants to work online for a long time, the supporting mechanism is very important, working from home, not in the office, no one can see, management is very important, the mechanism is to ensure efficiency.
The three scenarios mentioned above are necessary for online office, but there are some icing on the cake scenarios, such as electronic signature system, integrated with OA system, so that the company does not need to stamp, which can be used to reduce the exchanges with suppliers, customers and agents. The second is electronic invoicing, which is integrated with ERP, so you don’t have to go to the company to issue invoices. In addition, there are SCM and CRM. SCM realizes online document transmission and account checking without offline document handover.
If the customer is project-oriented, CRM also includes on-site project management, including project testing, inspection, acceptance and so on, combined with the online office platform. I believe that many companies will pay more and more attention to RPA in the future. At present, companies are pursuing less humanization. This is one of the better solutions. At present, there are many successful cases, especially in the banking, securities and insurance industries have mature applications. Cloud folder, in fact, is a shared folder, we exchange files more convenient, but also can manage the version of the file, permission issues.
With online office platform, online office is actually only half done.
The application system of the company should also be able to be used at home, such as ERP, MES, SCM, CRM, BI, HR, etc. In fact, the method is simple, it is OK to build an ordinary VPN, and the implementation is not difficult. Now more than 80% of applications are B/S architecture, which means that you can open them directly with a browser. With VPN, you can use most of them at home.
Of course, you can also release the application directly to the public network without VPN, which is not secure. VPNS are like extending the company Intranet to the home. When you use it at home, it feels like you use it at work, so it is much safer. Of course, there are some old systems, is C/S architecture, must be installed client to use, this system of bandwidth requirements is relatively high, ordinary VPN may not be solved, you can use remote terminal or some tools to solve, are mature technology, easy to do.
There’s an application system, a very special one, called the call center system, which a lot of companies have. In particular, its hardware system is too complex, to set up a VPN at home is not enough, to make appropriate adjustments in the hardware, the original software system does not need to make any changes, can realize the screen playing and recording at home. In addition, I would like to remind you that there is now a cloud call center platform, SaaS version. The company does not need to invest any hardware, but can embed the cloud call center platform into its own application system. The service fee can be paid according to the number of seats, and seats can be increased or decreased at any time.数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
Above we said that in order to achieve online office
Above we said that in order to achieve online office, one is to have an online office platform, the other is to establish a VPN, can use the application system at home. In this way, every department of the company has some necessary personnel on duty, and some employees work from home.
Now let’s talk about the impact of the pandemic on the home furnishing industry. Divided into short-term impact and long-term impact, the short-term impact of the epidemic may be more negative, because the short-term impact is still relatively large, a month or two without people on the streets. The characteristic of the home furnishing industry is that sales are sold by stores, most of which are in stores, malls, or on the street, and are now almost closed, not simply declining sales performance, but almost no revenue. For those with less than three months ‘cash flow, the challenge is more immediate. Ideally, three months would be over. For psychological reasons, the recovery of the market should be a slow recovery process. As a result, it is predictable that some companies will close stores or even lay off workers.
In the face of big challenges, different enterprises have different performance, I remember that SARS year, the challenge to everyone is also great, but some enterprises do not lay off staff, can not operate how to do? Do training, especially for the front line training, at the same time to conduct operational skills competition, sorting out the process, promote information and so on.
It is also a time to test the boss and, to some extent, the character of the boss.
In order to survive, maintain cash flow, to negotiate with everyone, pay a part of the salary, the other part of the end of the year, and even directly cut salaries, cancel bonuses, and so on, everyone has confidence in the boss?
Before January, most companies had good plans for 2020, such as increasing market promotion, new product research and development, sales growth, project investment, infrastructure investment, store opening, IT project investment, etc. Now these goals are not cancelled, but also need to make significant adjustments. Now the problem is not whether to live well, but whether to survive. Everyone has to enter the winter state, those who invest relatively large projects, to slow down. During the epidemic period, we have worked hard to improve our core competitiveness. As long as we survive this period, some enterprises will certainly not survive. After the market recovers, we will reshuffle the deck and grab more cheese.
There is a story about two people being chased by a tiger. All they had to do was outrun each other. Now in such a big crisis, the tiger is the crisis, as an enterprise, as long as outperform peers on the line.
Long-term impact:
The first one I think is the centralization of the layout.
Last year, the country also made great changes, namely, the development of central urbanization, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Chengdu-Chongqing, before the north-south balance, balance between the east and the west. In fact, this pattern is common abroad, including Europe, the United States and Japan. In the future, the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will form a huge siphon effect, including population. This epidemic, I think, will accelerate this trend. In terms of medical resources, the central city is absolutely ahead, in terms of the number of first-class hospitals, the number of beds, and the number of doctors. In addition, the government of the central city has strong governance capacity and the ability to respond to emergencies and deal with emergencies. All these constitute a strong attraction for young people. Therefore, after the epidemic, people will also strengthen the understanding of urban centralization.
I checked the data in 2019 and found that the GDP of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta accounted for one third of China’s total GDP.
In recent years, the population has increased a lot. Together with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Chengdu-Chongqing region, the GDP of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region accounted for more than half of China’s total GDP. For the home industry, the main consumer groups will be concentrated in these central cities. Most of the revenue of home furnishing industry depends on stores and terminals, with a small share of online sales. In the past, the national layout of home furnishing enterprises, including first-tier cities, provincial capitals, cities and counties, has to be laid out in a centralized way in the future, including the construction of marketing teams, stores, factories and logistics centers in the future, without the need for balanced layout.
Second, I think channel strategy adjustment, especially store operation strategy.
The outbreak has increased online traffic and reinforced people’s online habits. In addition, consumers have also changed and become younger and younger. The post-80s and post-90s are the mainstream, and the post-00s are also on the stage. They are all online. Of course, for the household industry, it has its own particularity. It is not that stores are not needed, but that the business strategy of stores should be changed to integrate online and offline customers, and offline customers should focus on experience. Stores naturally have less customer flow and limited samples. In addition to traditional displays, stores also need other high-tech means, such as AR and AI, to add some interactive modes and integration modes, so as to give consumers more and better experience.
That’s all for today’s sharing, thank you!数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
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