报告发布
近日，中国银行业协会发布了《中国银行家调查报告（2022）》（以下简称《报告》）。《报告》由中国银行业协会和普华永道共同发起，由中国银行业协会首席经济学家巴曙松教授主持并负责实施，至今已连续开展十四年。
2022年是党和国家事业发展进程中的重要一年，是我国进入全面建设社会主义现代化国家、向第二个百年奋斗目标进军的重要一年。站在百年变局的历史十字路口，尽管国际环境不确定性不稳定性因素明显增多，但中国银行业主动落实“经济要稳住、发展要安全”要求，积极应答“我们怎么办”这一时代课题，助力推进中国式现代化建设伟大任务，交出了成绩斐然的答卷。
调查主要呈现五个特点：一是点面结合。由中国银行业协会负责组织面向银行家的问卷调查，由中国银行业协会首席经济学家巴曙松教授和课题组成员选择具有代表性的金融机构进行重点调查。二是平行展开。在全国31个省级行政区域（不包括港澳台）平行展开调查，基本覆盖了各类银行业机构。三是形式多样。调查不仅有面向银行家的电子问卷调查，还有多种形式的调研访谈。四是针对性强。调查紧跟国内外经济发展形势，着重对行业热点、重点、难点问题进行有针对性的专题调研。五是内容详实。通过长达十个月有序调查跟踪，共回收有效问卷1989份，获取了大量真实、准确、有价值的信息。
《报告》共涵盖十一个部分，包括宏观环境、发展战略、业务发展、风险内控与营运管理、金融科技、公司治理与社会责任、监管评价、发展前瞻、银行家群体、同业评议和专题篇。其中，专题篇针对银行业助力经济稳增长、服务专精特新“小巨人”企业、资产管理、坚守风控底线守正创新、中小银行风险治理等五个银行业关注的热点问题进行调研和访谈。
《报告》主要内容如下：
一、银行家预期宏观经济温和复苏
随着我国疫情防控政策进一步优化，银行家对未来经济平稳运行持积极乐观态度，预期未来一二线城市房地产市场销量有望企稳。在过去的一年中，银行家对民生政策的效果评价最高，在疫情反复跌宕背景下，出台一系列精准有效的民生政策切实保障和改善了民生。在应对美欧主要国家竞争性加息带来的人民币贬值压力，银行家认为货币政策关键在于增强流动性管理的灵活性和有效性。在日常经营管理中，金融监管政策仍是银行家最为关注的外部环境因素。银行家认为打造市场化法治化国际化营商环境是银行家认为提高我国对外开放水平最有力的措施。
二、数字化智能化转型成为银行业新的利润增长点
随着党的二十大胜利召开，高质量发展成为中国全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务，中国银行业的发展战略也出现了新的调整。信贷需求减弱跃升成为商业银行主要经营压力，数字化智能化转型成为银行业新的利润增长点。增强战略调整时效性依然是战略管理首要考虑的问题。银行重点发展区域呈现差异化特征，国家战略重点区域中长三角区域和粤港澳大湾区最受关注；小微企业客户依然是受访银行家最为关注的客户类型；特色化经营成为银行业实现高质量发展的主要途径，为小微企业提供一体化融资服务则是特色化经营的重要措施；国际化发展仍为银行业的主流趋势。
三、绿色低碳产业成为银行信贷投放新重点
在银行信贷投向的重点支持行业中，医药制造业仍是银行家重点支持行业，同时银行家对电力燃气业（含光伏）等绿色行业支持比例显著正增长，对冶金业（含钢铁、有色金属）、造纸业、石油化工业等高耗能行业信贷投放有所限制。
四、流动性风险管理能力提升，银行家对未来三年员工数量增长保持乐观，不同类型银行分化明显
在风险管理与内部控制方面，银行业对风险管理重视度普遍提升，信用风险关注度进一步上升。人力资源管理方面，银行家对未来三年员工数量增长保持乐观，但不同类型银行存在明显分化。资产负债管理方面，超七成的银行家认为信贷类资产占比将进一步上升，结构性存款作为负债持续下降或与上年持平。
五、金融科技主抓数据及科技两大能力建设，敏捷化创新体系以任务型团队推进
银行业对金融科技财务投入和人力投入相较2021年略有下降，数据冲高回落。数据及科技能力建设成为银行业金融科技能力两大抓手。银行构建敏捷化创新体系从而快速响应市场和客户需求的重要性凸显。外包集中度风险、供应链风险跃居银行与三方科技公司合作时的首要考虑因素。
六、中国银行业保持较高公司治理水平，积极履行社会责任
2022年银行家对中国银行业公司治理成效的综合评分达4.37分，持续处于较高水平。在经济金融领域，近八成银行家表示在加强重点领域和薄弱环节小微企业的金融支持、助力畅通国民经济循环方面履行了更多社会责任。
七、银行家对监管指标体系评价较高
中国银行家对2022年银行业主要监管指标体系整体评价保持在较高水平。特别是资本充足率指标，在给定的主要监管指标选项中，连续十年评价最高，表明资本约束原则作为银行经营管理的底线要求，已经取得了良好的监管成效。
八、银行家对银行业未来五年的整体营业收入与利润仍然持乐观态度
银行家对银行业未来五年的整体营业收入与利润仍然持乐观态度。接近九成的银行家认为未来五年银行业整体不良贷款率低于2%。近九成的银行家认为银行业拨备覆盖率保持在150%以上。超过五成的银行家认为资本充足率高于12%。
九、银行家对于前往其他机构发展的开放态度持续提高
超六成的银行家愿意到其他机构发展，较2021年进一步上升，表明随着中国市场经济的深化和金融体制改革的推进，中国银行业从业人员面临更宽松的政策环境和更多的市场选择，银行家对于前往其他机构发展的开放态度持续提高。
十、国有大型商业银行在较多业务领域竞争力优势明显
中国银行业整体呈现较为稳定的竞争格局，大型商业银行在较多业务领域维持着明显的竞争优势，股份制银行在部分擅长领域差异化发展、继续保持较强竞争力。
翻译：
Report release
Recently, the China Banking Association released the China Bankers Survey Report (2022) (hereinafter referred to as the Report). The report, co-sponsored by the China Banking Association and Pricewaterhousecoopers and presided over by Professor Ba Shusong, chief economist of the China Banking Association, has been carried out for 14 consecutive years.
The year 2022 will be an important year for the development of the cause of the Party and the state, as well as for China’s progress towards the second centenary Goal of comprehensively building a modern socialist country. Standing at the historical crossroads of a century of changes, despite the obvious increase in uncertainties and instability in the international environment, China’s banking industry has taken the initiative to fulfill the requirements of “ensuring economic stability and ensuring safe development”, actively responded to the task of “what should we do?”, and helped advance the great task of Chinese-style modernization, delivering remarkable results.
The investigation mainly presents five characteristics:
one is the combination of point and surface. China Banking Association was responsible for organizing the questionnaire survey for bankers. Professor Ba Shusong, chief economist of China Banking Association, and members of the research team selected representative financial institutions to conduct the key survey.
The second is parallel expansion. Investigations have been carried out in parallel in 31 provincial-level administrative regions (excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan), covering basically all types of banking institutions.
Third, various forms. The survey includes not only electronic questionnaires to bankers, but also various forms of research interviews. Fourth, it is highly targeted. The survey closely follows the economic development situation at home and abroad, and focuses on the hot, key and difficult issues of the industry for targeted thematic research.
Fifth, the content is detailed and accurate. Through ten months of orderly investigation and tracking, a total of 1989 valid questionnaires were collected, and a large number of real, accurate and valuable information was obtained.
The report covers 11 parts, including macro environment, development strategy, business development, internal risk control and operation management, financial technology, corporate governance and Social responsibility, regulatory evaluation, development outlook, banker community, peer review and thematic articles. Among them, this paper conducts research and interviews on five hot issues that the banking industry pays attention to, such as helping the stable growth of the economy, serving specialized and new “little giant” enterprises, asset management, sticking to the bottom line of risk control and maintaining integrity and innovation, and risk management of small and medium-sized banks.
The main contents of the Report are as follows:
Bankers expect a modest macroeconomic recovery
With the further optimization of China’s epidemic prevention and control policies, bankers are positive and optimistic about the smooth operation of the economy in the future, and expect the sales volume of real estate markets in first – and second-tier cities to stabilize in the future. In the past year, bankers gave the highest evaluation to the effect of livelihood policies. Against the backdrop of repeated ups and downs of the epidemic. A series of precise and effective livelihood policies were introduced to effectively guarantee and improve people’s livelihood.
In response to the RMB depreciation pressure caused by the competitive interest rate hikes of major countries in the US and Europe, bankers believe that the key to monetary policy is to enhance the flexibility and effectiveness of liquidity management. In daily management, financial regulatory policy is still the most concerned external environmental factors for bankers. Bankers believe that creating a market-oriented and law-based international business environment is the most powerful measure to improve China’s opening to the outside world.
Digital and intelligent transformation has become a new profit growth point of the banking industry
With the victory of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, high-quality development has become the top priority of China’s comprehensive construction of a modern socialist country. And the development strategy of China’s banking industry has also appeared a new adjustment. Weakening credit demand has become a major operating pressure for commercial banks. And digital and intelligent transformation has become a new profit growth point for the banking industry. Enhancing the timeliness of strategic adjustment is still the primary consideration of strategic management.
The key regions for the development of banks show the characteristics of differentiation. And the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are the most concerned among the national strategic key regions. Small and micro business customers are still the most concerned type of customers. Characteristic operation has become the main way to achieve high quality development of the banking industry. And providing integrated financing services for small and micro enterprises is an important measure of characteristic operation. International development is still the mainstream trend of banking.
Green and low-carbon industry has become a new focus of bank credit
Among the key industries to be supported by bank credit, pharmaceutical manufacturing is still the key industry to be supported by bankers. At the same time, the proportion of bankers’ support to green industries such as electric power and gas industry (including photovoltaic industry) has significantly increased, and the credit issuance to high-energy energy-consuming industries such as metallurgy industry (including steel and non-ferrous metals), paper industry, petroleum and chemical industry has been limited.
Liquidity risk management ability improved, bankers remain optimistic about the growth of the number of employees in the next three years, different types of banks are clearly differentiated
In terms of risk management and internal control, the banking industry pays more attention to risk management and credit risk. In terms of human resource management, bankers remain optimistic about the growth of the number of employees in the next three years. But there is a clear divergence among different types of banks. In terms of asset and liability management, more than 70% of bankers believe that the proportion of credit assets will rise further. And structured deposits as liabilities will continue to decline or remain the same as last year.
Fintech focuses on data and technology capacity building, and the agile innovation system is promoted by task-based team
Compared with 2021, the financial input and manpower input of the banking industry to fintech decreased slightly, and the data soared and fell. Data and technology capacity building has become the two major focus of banking fintech capacity. It is important for banks to build an agile innovation system to quickly respond to market and customer demands. Outsourcing concentration risk and supply chain risk jump to the top consideration when banks cooperate with three technology companies.
China’s banking industry maintains a high level of corporate governance and actively fulfills its social responsibilities
In 2022, the comprehensive score of bankers on the corporate governance effectiveness of China’s banking industry reached 4.37 points, which remained at a high level. In the economic and financial field, nearly 80% of the bankers said they fulfilled more social responsibilities in strengthening financial support for small and micro enterprises in key areas and weak links and helping smooth the circulation of the national economy.
Bankers have a high evaluation of the regulatory index system
Chinese bankers’ overall evaluation of the main regulatory index system of the banking industry in 2022 remained at a high level. In particular, the capital adequacy ratio index, among the given main regulatory index options, has the highest evaluation for ten consecutive years, indicating that the principle of capital restraint. As the bottom line requirement of bank operation and management, has achieved good regulatory results.
Bankers remain optimistic about overall revenues and profits over the next five years
Bankers remain optimistic about overall revenues and profits over the next five years. Nearly 90% of bankers think the industry’s overall non-performing loan ratio is below 2% over the next five years. Nearly nine out of 10 bankers think the industry’s provision coverage ratio remains above 150 per cent. More than half of bankers think the ratio is higher than 12%.、
Bankers continue to be more open to moving on to other institutions
More than 60% of the bankers are willing to pursue their career in other institutions. Which is further increased compared to 2021, indicating that with the deepening of China’s market economy and the promotion of financial system reform. Chinese banking employees are faced with more relaxed policy environment and more market choices. And bankers’ openness to pursue their career in other institutions continues to improve.
Large state-owned commercial banks have obvious competitive advantages in many business fields
China’s banking industry as a whole presents a relatively stable competitive pattern. Large commercial banks maintain obvious competitive advantages in many business areas. While joint-stock banks continue to maintain strong competitiveness through differentiated development in some fields.
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