首席信息官们（CIO）都希望跟业务部门一起合作，通过使用数字技术来帮助企业创造价值，但商业世界是多变的，这使得长期规划成为一项挑战。IDC集团副总裁Tony Olvet 和研究总监Craig Powers对数字商业战略的成功秘诀以及全球首席信息官（CIO）和其他商业领袖在2023年及以后将面临的挑战提出了10项预测：
预测一：到2023年，企业在数字技术上的支出将以经济增长的8倍的速度增长，为卓越运营、竞争差异化和长期增长奠定基础
尽管IDC以乘数的形式表达了这一预测，但这可能是预测中最不可靠的部分，而且IDC在这方面几乎没有影响力。IDC预计，数字技术支出将以16.9%的速度增长，比目前对2023年全球GDP增长的预测快8倍左右。IDC没有对此进行衡量，但其他来源的预测在2%左右。
不过，这一全球GDP数据并不确定。Olvet说，它可能会低于这个数字，这比今年年初的预期要低得多，而且肯定比去年要低。这里的核心预测是，尽管面临经济挑战，我们看到企业仍然在关键技术上投入大量资金，这些技术将帮助它们提高运营效率，并准备好以更好的状态走出经济放缓，从而在竞争中脱颖而出。
Olvet表示，这些支出应集中在云计算、高级分析、机器学习(ML)和其他创新加速器上。
不过，不能指望首席信息官们（CIO）自己解决问题。Olvet说:“首席信息官们（CIO）将需要首席执行官和高管们的全力支持，以确保他们的数字业务目标通过这些技术投资实现，尤其是在目前这种波动时期。”与此同时，首席信息官们也应该寻求企业外部的支持。他说:“现在是时候密切关注你的技术供应商了，以确定他们中哪些人能够承诺支持你的数字目标，并从IT投资中获得明确的结果。”
Olvet还提醒首席信息官们，由于企业面临的威胁比以往任何时候都多，在网络安全方面的支出至少应该与数字计划的投资保持同步，如果不能超过的话。并且在招聘和留住技术人才方面的投入也将是数字计划成功的关键。
预测二：到2026年，G2000企业总收入的40%将来自数字产品、服务和体验
来自全球头部企业的CEO们告诉IDC，他们大约30%的收入来自数字产品，他们预计这一比例在未来几年还会增长。
IDC指出了企业可以实现这种增长的三个维度。首先，他们可以开发新的渠道：电子商务、移动应用程序，或者创建新的分销路径，比如支持循环经济。其次，他们可以采用额外的收入模式:按使用付费、订阅、动态定价、交易费用或结果付费。第三，他们可以寻求将新的数字资产货币化:数据、知识产权或虚拟物品。
开发这种新的收入来源需要首席信息官们继续推进数字支出。“如果你停下来，你已经落后了，”他说。
开发新产品可能需要首席信息官们尚未具备的技能。Powers说:“你必须有合适的内部人员和合作伙伴，这样才能加快开发速度。此外，企业技术架构有五个必须具备的要求，以加速这些数字产品的交付：微服务和API、集成功能、工业数据模型、模块化和云原生功能。
预测三：到2027年，G500中科技供应商的数量将翻一番，其中包括起源于科技行业之外的企业
这是大型企业在将数字资产货币化时创建新业务线的结果。数据共享或销售将带来新的收入机会。Powers说:“随着农业数据在技术合作伙伴和农民之间得到更广泛的共享，碳抵消和清洁气候友好型产品将带来新的收入机会。”同时其表示，石化或冶金企业可能提供或从中获利的另一种可能性是碳捕获即服务。
预测四：到2024年，50%的G2000首席执行官将与他们的云供应商建立战略个人关系，以从数字业务平台投资中获得可量化的结果
当IDC询问CEO们谁将是他们未来最具战略意义的技术合作伙伴时，超过30%的人指出他们的主要公共云平台提供商。Powers说:“这与我们过去看到的情况不同。5到10年前，它可能是顾问或内部ERP提供商，所以我们看到了一种转变。”
越来越多的数字化成熟的组织现在正在CEO层面上与云提供商建立这种关系。这是供应商一直想要的，现在CEO们也想要。他们想要接近他们正在进行的这些重大投资的结果。他们希望从中看到投资回报率。
这种关系将支持首席信息官，而不是排挤他们:“首席信息官在推动数字技术方面不能单打独斗;他们需要一个数字冠军CEO的支持，”Powers说。
预测五：到2027年，在生态系统控制平面上拥有高度发达的产业价值链的企业，其创新速度将比其他企业快25%
在整个价值链上提供社会责任、合资企业和弹性的可见性将是关键。
预测六：到2027年，那些以值得信赖的方式收集、分析和情景化运用客户数据的企业将成功地建立创造性的业务和定价模型，使客户终身价值翻倍
转移到中央客户数据平台的企业将在衡量和管理客户终身价值方面领先一步。
预测七：到2024年，全球四分之一的组织将通过将其与可持续发展相关的数字技术支出在2022年的基础上增加25%以上，来展示领导力
IDC今年早些时候报告称，软件在监控企业的可持续性方面发挥着关键作用——不仅从环境的角度来看，而且从社会的角度来看，比如确保员工的健康和福利。
预测八：到2027年，由于大部分技术预算都集中在业务部门，30%的高管将从鼓励创新转向扩大创新和运营数字业务
Olvet说，IDC最近一项关于高管层挑战的调查发现，组织竖井是扩大规模的最大障碍之一。他表示向数字商业时代的转变也将要求专业知识的转变。因此，我们将看到公司高层人员的变化。这也意味着首席信息官(CIO)及其IT团队的角色将发生转变，因为他们将花更多时间评估将在整个企业范围内使用的新产品，并花更多时间建立和维护他们作为值得信赖的顾问的地位。
随着业务领导者对技术的影响力越来越大，企业在IT支出中看到了重复和不必要的冗余，这是有风险的。为了解决这个问题，Olvet建议首席信息官们对他们团队的技术知识“具有传染性的信心”，加强他们作为可咨询专家的角色，并“对人才保持顽强的态度”，不懈努力寻找、支持和留住拥有必要技能的员工，在整个企业范围内扩展技术。
预测九：到2026年，80%的组织将准确量化其数字能力和资产(数据、算法和软件代码)的价值，并显著提高其市场估值
在组织可以量化其数字资产的价值之前，他们需要认识到它们有价值，并且可以沿着预测二中探索的三个维度进行开发或增加。
预测十：到2026年，未能有效解决组织中人才和数字技能差距的企业将限制20%的收入增长机会
这将是CIO们在未来三到四年里最难克服的挑战之一，也是他们需要从今天开始着手解决的问题。
原文：
More than ever, CIOs are expected to work with other parts of their business to help create value through the use of digital technologies — but the business world is volatile, making long-term planning a challenge.
As part of the IDC FutureScape program, IDC Group VP Tony Olvet and research director Craig Powers offer 10 predictions for what will make a digital business strategy successful, and what challenges CIOs and other business leaders worldwide will face in 2023 and beyond.
Although they couch their predictions in business terms, they also apply to government, health care and other such endeavors, says Olvet. “We are inclusive here of commercial enterprise and public sector organizations.”
1. Spending on digital technology by organizations will grow at eight times the economy in 2023, establishing a foundation for operational excellence, competitive differentiation, and long-term growth
Although IDC expresses this prediction in terms of a multiplier, that’s perhaps the least reliable part of the forecast, and one over which IDC has little influence. IDC expects digital technology spending to grow at 16.9%, around eight times faster than current forecasts for growth in worldwide GDP in 2023. IDC doesn’t measure that, but forecasts from other sources come in at around 2%.
That figure for worldwide GDP is no certainty, though. “It might drop below that,” says Olvet. “It’s much lower than originally expected at the beginning of this year, and is definitely lower than last year.”
The core prediction here, he says, is that despite the economic challenges, “We’re seeing enterprises still pouring money into key technologies that are going to help them be operationally efficient, ready to come out of an economic slowdown in much better shape competitively to differentiate themselves.”
That spending should focus on cloud, advanced analytics, machine learning (ML) and other innovation accelerators, he says.
CIOs can’t be expected to solve problems by themselves, though. “CIOs will need the full support of the CEO and C-suite peers to ensure their digital business goals are achieved from those tech investments, especially during this period of volatility,” Olvet says.
At the same time, CIOs should also look for support from outside the enterprise. “Now’s the time to look closely at your tech suppliers to determine which of them can commit to supporting your digital goals and drive clear outcomes from IT investments,” he says.
Olvet also reminds CIOs that spending on cybersecurity should at least keep pace with, if not exceed, investment in digital initiatives as enterprises face more threats than ever.
Spending on recruitment and retention of skilled talent will be key to the success of digital initiatives, too.
2. By 2026, 40% of total revenue for G2000 organizations will be generated by digital products, services, and experiences
CEOs of the world’s largest companies tell IDC that they already make around 30% of their revenue from digital products, and they expect that proportion to grow in the years to come.
IDC identifies three dimensions along which enterprises can achieve this growth. First, they can exploit new channels: e-commerce, mobile apps, or the creation of new distribution paths such as enabling the circular economy. Second, they can adopt additional revenue models: pay-per-use, subscriptions, dynamic pricing, transaction fees, or payment for outcomes. And third, they can seek to monetize new digital assets: data, intellectual property, or virtual objects.
Developing such new revenue streams requires that CIOs keep pressing ahead with digital spending. “If you pause, you’re already behind,” he says.
Building new products may involve skills that CIOs don’t yet have on their roster. “You have to have the right mix of in-house and partners that can enable quicker development,” says Powers.
In addition, he says, there are five must-have requirements for enterprise technology architectures to speed up delivery of these digital products: micro services and APIs, integration capabilities, industrial data models, modularity, and cloud native capabilities.
3. The number of tech providers in the G500 will double by 2027, incorporating businesses that originated outside the tech industry
This is a consequence of the largest enterprises creating new business lines as they monetize their digital assets.
The sharing or sale of data will open up new revenue opportunities. “As agricultural data is shared more broadly between tech partners and farmers,” says Powers, “there are new revenue opportunities around carbon offsets and clean climate-friendly products.”
Another possibility that the petrochemical or metallurgical enterprises may be able to offer or profit from is carbon-capture-as-a-service, he says.
4. By 2024, 50% of G2000 CEOs will establish strategic personal relationships with their cloud providers to achieve quantifiable outcomes from digital business platform investments
When IDC asked CEOs who would be their most strategic technology partner in the future, over 30% pointed to their primary public cloud platform provider. “This is a shift from what we’ve seen in the past,” says Powers. “Five to 10 years ago, it would have been a consultant or on-premises ERP provider, so we’re seeing a changing of the guard.”
More digitally mature organizations are now building these relationships with cloud providers at the CEO level. It’s something suppliers have always wanted, and now CEOs want it too. “They want to be close to the outcomes of these big investments they’re making. They want to see the ROI from that,” he says.
And this interest will support CIOs, not sideline them: “CIOs can’t be on their own in driving digital technology; they need the support of a digital champion CEO,” says Powers.
5. Organizations with highly developed industry value chains on an ecosystem control plane will innovate 25% faster than other businesses by 2027
Providing visibility into social responsibility, joint ventures and resilience all along the value chain will be key.
6. By 2027, enterprises that collect, analyze, and contextualize customer data in a trustworthy way will successfully build creative business and pricing models that double customer lifetime value
Enterprises that are moving to a central customer data platform will have a head-start in measuring and managing customer lifetime value.
7. A quarter of organizations worldwide by 2024 will demonstrate responsible leadership through increasing their sustainability-related digital tech spend by more than 25% from 2022 levels
Software plays a key role in monitoring an enterprise’s sustainability — not just from an environmental point of view, but also a social one, such as ensuring employee health and wellbeing, IDC reported earlier this year.
8. With the majority of technology budgets residing in lines of business, by 2027, 30% of the expertise in the C-suite will shift from encouraging to scaling innovation, and operating digital businesses
A recent IDC survey of C-suite challenges found that organizational silos presented one of the biggest obstacles to scaling, says Olvet.
“The shift to the digital business era is also going to require a shift in expertise,” he says. “As a result, we’re going to see a shift in the people who are at the top of the organization.”
It’s also going to mean a shift in role for CIOs and their IT teams as they spend more time assessing new offerings to be used across the enterprise, and more time building and maintaining their status as a trusted advisor.
There’s a risk, as line of business leaders gain greater influence over technology, that enterprises see duplication and needless redundancy in IT spending.
To counter that, Olvet recommends that CIOs “be contagiously confident” in their team’s technology knowledge, bolstering their role as experts to be consulted, and to be “tenacious with talent,” making a persistent effort to find, support and retain staff with the necessary skills to scale technology across the enterprise.
9. By 2026, 80% of organizations will accurately quantify the value of their digital capabilities and assets (data, algorithms, and software code), and significantly improve their market valuation
Before organizations can quantify the value of their digital assets, they need to recognize they have value, and that it can be exploited or increased along the three dimensions explored in prediction 2.
10. By 2026, enterprises that did not effectively address the talent and digital skills gap in their organization will constrain revenue growth opportunities by 20%
This will be one of the hardest challenges for CIOs to overcome in the next three or four years, and one they need to begin working on today.
本文由数字化转型网翻译而来，文章翻译：数字化转型网郑亚茹；翻译审核：数字化转型网默然。
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