著名经济学家江小涓教授在二十多年前就预见了发展服务业的重要性。服务业和经济增长的关系如何？数字技术的发展给服务业带来了什么改变？来人文清华，听经济学家江小涓教授分享对服务业的思考。
一、本期内容
02:36 国有企业改革的几个阶段
12:07 政府和经济的关系
21:45 支持外资进入中国促进竞争
32:21 少数派的呼喊：入世对中国有利
38:15 调整焦点，率先关注服务业
48:48 经济学家对中国经济发展的作用
二、本期嘉宾
江小涓，现任全国人大常务委员会委员、全国人大社会建设委员会副主任委员，中国行政管理学会会长，中国社会科学院大学教授、博士生导师。曾任国务院研究室副主任、国务院副秘书长。
主要研究领域为数字经济、服务经济、宏观经济、产业结构、国际经济和公共政策等。近些年在清华大学工作期间，主要从事数字经济、数字时代的公共治理、数字全球化、前沿科技伦理等方面的研究教学工作。自1986年以来，发表过多篇学术论文，出版十多部学术专著。在《经济研究》、《中国社会科学》和《管理世界》三大核心期刊上发表的论文超过20篇，在《人民日报》、《求是》等重要报刊上发表的文章超过20篇。多篇学术论文和研究成果多次获奖，包括四次获“孙冶方经济科学奖”，两次获“中国社会科学院优秀科研成果奖”等。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
三、本期导读
张小琴：从2001年开始，您担任中国社科院财贸经济研究所的书记，半年以后任所长兼书记，这时开始，把研究聚焦的目标转向了服务业，怎么会有这样的转向？
江小涓：因为我原来在工业经济研究所主要研究制造业，但是到后期我已经有一种感觉，中国制造业竞争力弱不在制造环节本身，而是在服务环节。
张小琴：服务业会约束制造业？数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
江小涓：对。现在制造环节其实时间很短，增加值比重也不高，真正决定一个产品水平的，很大程度上是在制造环节之外的两端的服务业，比如能不能尽快研发、供应链匹配度是不是好、采购成本是不是低、运送是不是比较快、是不是有很好的办法营销、有没有很好的售后服务能力等等。
传统苏联经济学没有这个概念，就是工业、农业、流通，没有大的第三产业或者服务业的概念，所以财贸所是很特殊的所，在中国社科院，除了研究工业的工经所、研究农业的农经所，其他的都是它在研究。我刚去时，它有物资经济研究室、商业室、外贸室、财政室、金融室等等，其实就是最经典的服务领域主要分支，但是物资部后来撤了，物资室没有了，内贸部外贸部合并了，商业研究室又撤了。没有相应的对口部门，研究机构没有具体工作对象，干了活之后不知道交给谁，所以那个所当时的状况不算太好，我说这不行，一点不稳定，另外人心涣散，我就说我们还是要有一个全所相对集中的核心，和大家反复商量，觉得这时服务业非常重要，就把服务经济变成全所非常重要的方向，当时国内几乎没有人研究这个领域，我想找几本国外权威书的译作都找不到。www.szhzxw.cn
张小琴：是开拓性的。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
江小涓：对。当时国内没有一个研究所以服务经济或者第三产业命名的。大概用了两三年时间专门把中国服务业和国际比较，做了比较大的研究。
张小琴：中国当时的状况是什么？
江小涓：比重低，服务质量差，服务业和其他产业的匹配度差。
张小琴：趋势呢？
江小涓：要加快发展。
张小琴：传统经济学认为当服务业在GDP当中的比重达到一定比例时，经济发展速度会放慢，为什么？
江小涓：它是服务业的本质所决定的，服务业是以人对人的服务为主，像教育就是老师对学生，医疗就是医生对病人。制造业使用很多新型机器设备，效率提高非常快，员工的工资就在上涨，制造业工资上涨后服务业的人就不干了，经济学中有个“部门工资平均化”的道理，当制造业工资从30元涨到300元时，服务业的人也要求工资上涨，虽然他还是一天看10个病人，效率不变。传统服务业由于是人对人，不能使用先进的机器设备，效率比不高，所以工资的上涨就表现在同样的服务价格更贵，消费者虽然为此花了更多的钱，但没有带来相应消费的真实增长，这个是服务业的悖论，叫鲍莫尔定律，这在经济增长中是非常有名的理论，它也解释了为什么发达国家看医生那么贵、雇家政服务员那么贵，当服务业增长占到一定比重之后经济增长的速度会下降，因为把资源更多投入到低效率的部门了。
张小琴：但是服务业未来又是必须要快速发展的行业。所以每个经济体都会到这个阶段？www.szhzxw.cn
江小涓：对。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
张小琴：我们进入数字时代以后，在网络发达的情况下，服务业还是这样的状况吗，还是有新的特点？
江小涓：大概十年前我说中国经济增长速度会缓慢下降，有很多因素，其中一个因素是服务业比重会上升。但是随着这十年数字技术的发展，我觉得对中国未来的预期可以比那些其他经济体的先行者更乐观一些，因为数字技术会带来服务性质的改变。
张小琴：不像原来生产效率那么低了。www.szhzxw.cn
江小涓：对。有些行业还没有改变，比如家政服务还是改变不了，但是有些行业发生了非常大的变化，比如教育，现代教育150多年了，班额长期以来是固定的，一个老师教40个学生，在一线城市，40年前教师的工资40块钱，现在教师工资平均一万块钱，但他同样教40个学生，所以教育就变得很贵。但是现在有了网络教育，一个老师最好的网课可以有一百万学生在听，效率大大提高，当然现在还不能替代线下上课，除了网课之外还有线下课程，但是未来总有一个阶段很多课可以变成网课，这样教师的劳动生产率会大大提高。还有很多行业也可以通过网络提高效率，比如体育转播、文艺演出、与互联网结合的新型体育运动等。数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
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翻译：
Professor Jiang Xiaojuan, a renowned economist, foresaw the importance of developing the service sector more than two decades ago. What is the relationship between services and economic growth? How has the development of digital technology changed the service industry? Come to Tsinghua University, listen to economist Professor Jiang Xiaojuan share thoughts on the service industry.
Contents of this issue数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
02:36 Several stages of state-owned enterprise reform
12:07 The relationship between government and the economy
21:45 Support foreign investment in China to promote competition
32:21 Minority Voice: WTO is good for China
38:15 Adjust the focus and focus on the service industry first
48:48 The role of economists in China’s economic development
Guests of this session数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
Jiang Xiaojuan is currently a member of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, Vice chairman of the Social Development Committee of the National People’s Congress, President of the Chinese Society of Public Administration, professor and doctoral supervisor of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. He was deputy director of The Research Office of the State Council and deputy Secretary-General of The State Council. www.szhzxw.cn
Her research interests include digital economy, service economy, macroeconomics, industrial structure, international economy and public policy. In recent years, when I worked at Tsinghua University, I was mainly engaged in the research and teaching of digital economy, public governance in the digital era, digital globalization, frontier technology ethics, etc. Since 1986, he has published many academic papers and more than ten academic monographs. More than 20 papers have been published in the three core journals of Economic Research, Social Sciences in China and Management World, and more than 20 articles have been published in important newspapers and periodicals such as People’s Daily and Qiushi. His academic papers and research achievements have been awarded many times, including “Sun Yefang Economic Science Award” for four times and “Excellent Scientific Research Achievement Award of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences” for two times.
Introduction to this issue
Zhang Xiaoqin: Since 2001, you have been the secretary of the Institute of Finance, Trade and Economics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Six months later, you became the director and secretary of the Institute. At that time, you started to focus your research on the service industry.
Jiang Xiaojuan: Because I used to study the manufacturing industry in the Institute of Industrial Economics, but by the late stage I had a feeling that the weak competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry is not in the manufacturing link itself, but in the service link. www.szhzxw.cn
Zhang Xiaoqin: Will the service sector constrain the manufacturing sector?
Jiang Xiaojuan: Yes. At present, the manufacturing process is very short and the proportion of added value is not high. What really determines the level of a product is, to a large extent, the service industry at both ends of the manufacturing process. For example, can research and development as soon as possible, supply chain matching degree is good, procurement cost is low, delivery is relatively fast, is there a good way to marketing, is there a good after-sales service ability and so on.
Traditional Soviet economics did not have such a concept, namely industry, agriculture and circulation, without the concept of large tertiary industry or service industry. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
Therefore, the Institute of Finance and Trade is very special. In addition to the institute of industry and agriculture, the institute of Agriculture studies in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is studying everything else. When I first went there, it had a material economy office, a commercial office, a foreign trade office, a finance office, a finance office, and so on, which were the most classic main branches of the service field. However, the Material Department was later removed, the Material room was no longer there, the domestic Trade Department and the Foreign Trade Department were merged, and the commercial research office was removed again.
There is no corresponding counterpart departments, research institutions do not have specific work objects, do not know who to do the work, so the situation at that time is not very good, I said this is not, a little unstable, in addition to the lax, I said we still want to have a relatively concentrated core, and you repeatedly discuss, feel that the service industry is very important, The service economy became a very important direction of the whole institute. At that time, almost no one in China studied this field. I could not find the translations of several authoritative foreign books. www.szhzxw.cn
Zhang Xiaoqin: It was pioneering.
Jiang Xiaojuan: Yes. At that time, there was no domestic research named after service economy or tertiary industry. It took me two or three years to make a comparative study of China’s service industry with other countries.
Zhang Xiaoqin: What was the situation in China at that time?
Jiang Xiaojuan: Low proportion, poor service quality, poor matching degree between service industry and other industries.
Zhang Xiaoqin: What’s the trend?数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
Jiang Xiaojuan: We need to speed up development.
Zhang Xiaoqin: According to traditional economics, when the proportion of the service industry in GDP reaches a certain proportion, the economic growth will slow down. Why?
Jiang Xiaojuan: It is determined by the nature of the service industry. The service industry is based on person-to-person service. For example, education is teacher to student, and medical treatment is doctor to patient. The manufacturing industry uses a lot of new machines and equipment, and the efficiency is improved very fast, so the wages of the employees are going up, and after the wages of the manufacturing industry go up, people in the service industry will quit. There is a principle of “equalization of wages in different sectors” in economics, when the wages of the manufacturing industry go up from 30 yuan to 300 yuan, the people in the service industry also demand the wage increase, although he still sees 10 patients a day, the efficiency remains the same.
Since the traditional service industry is person-to-person and cannot use advanced machinery and equipment, the efficiency ratio is not high, so the rise of wages is reflected in the higher price of the same service. Although consumers spend more money for this, there is no corresponding real growth of consumption. This is the paradox of the service industry, called Baumol’s Law, which is a very famous theory in economic growth. It also explains why it is so expensive in rich countries to see a doctor or hire domestic help, and why economic growth slows when the services sector takes a larger share of the economy, as resources are devoted to inefficient sectors. www.szhzxw.cn
Zhang Xiaoqin: But the service industry must develop rapidly in the future. So every economy gets to this stage?
Jiang Xiaojuan: Yes.
Zhang Xiaoqin: After we enter the digital age, is the service industry still like this, or does it have new features with the developed network?
Jiang Xiaojuan: About 10 years ago, I said that China’s economic growth rate would slow down. There are many factors, one of which is that the proportion of service industry will increase. But with the development of digital technology in the last decade, I think the expectations for China’s future can be a little more optimistic than those of the pioneers in other economies, because digital technology will bring about a change in the nature of services.
Zhang Xiaoqin: It’s not as inefficient as before.
Jiang Xiaojuan: Yes. Some industries have not changed, such as domestic service, but some industries have changed a lot, such as education, modern education has been more than 150 years, the class size has been fixed for a long time, a teacher teaches 40 students, in first-tier cities, 40 years ago, the salary of teachers is 40 yuan, now the average salary of teachers is 10,000 yuan, But he also teaches 40 students, so education becomes expensive.
But now with online education, a teacher’s best online course can have a million students in listening, efficiency is greatly improved, of course, now can not replace offline classes, in addition to online courses and offline courses, but there will always be a stage in the future many courses can become online courses, so that the teacher’s labor productivity will be greatly improved. There are also many industries that can improve efficiency through the Internet, such as sports broadcasting, artistic performances, and new sports combined with the Internet.数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
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