2023年，中国将继续推进网络强国和数字中国，但发展的核心主题会有一些变化。
从全球看，2023年随着欧美高通胀及全球央行加息，预期欧美各国货币流动性将趋于紧缩。海外资本在互联网、数字领域的投资力度将有所减弱，叠加全球孤立主义和贸易保护主义抬头，在推进网络强国和数字中国方面，2023年中国实现数字化转型将更多依赖国内金融、产业资本的支持。
在国内，一方面，我国重视实体经济发展，未来网络强国和数字中国将进一步和实体产业融合，数实融合将成为数字化转型的主题核心；另一方面，平台企业专项整改基本完成，未来常态化监管将遵循法治轨迹，进一步明确法律红线，明晰平台的权责利，与此同时，常态化监管也将以松绑的方式释放平台经济活力。
在平台经济领域，中央经济工作会议提出“支持平台企业在引领发展、创造就业、国际竞争中大显身手”。这一方面是给平台企业松绑，未来平台企业重回有序扩张态势；另一方面也为平台企业业务发展指明方向。未来平台企业将向三个方向发展：扩大主业创造就业；赋能实体引领发展；走出国门扩大市场。平台经济在国内多元化经营将更多面向实体经济，通过赋能实体和数实融合，平台企业通过服务B、G端政企以实现多元化经营。
一、2023年，四个热点产业值得关注
2023年，网络强国和数字中国方面的热点很多，个人提炼以下四个热点产业：
热点一：新型云计算
云计算早期主要提供基础资源服务，比如算力供给和数据存储空间，而随着各家云服务商服务能力的提升，如今的云计算企业向用户提供内容更加丰富的个性化、定制化服务。2023年，平台企业将转向BG端，而政企端的需求更多将以云计算的方式落地，云计算服务将替代当前政企自建的IT系统。相比于传统IT系统，云计算调配资源的能力更加灵活，系统运行的成本更低，效率更高。在云计算企业领域，互联网云计算头部企业和国有云企业将成为云计算行业主力。
热点二：信创产业
信创产业的目标是实现信息化设备国产自主化。当前信息化产品中依然有很多产品存在受制于人、卡脖子的状况，比如底层操作系统、高端芯片等等。信创产业将在2023年加速发展。这一方面受益于政策对信创产品的支持，另一方面受益于下游政企需求方对信创产品的支持，而政企用户对信创产品的追捧，既是因为爱国，也是为了在供应链上实现独立自主。2023年信创产业将呈现供需两旺局面，而其中最受关注的，依然是高端国产化芯片。
热点三：工业互联网
中国制造业正在向智造转型，随着我国劳动力成本提升和消费者需求升级，标准化、规模化的消费品将逐渐被定制化、个性化的消费品所取代，下游需求变化，零售商要求制造企业具备更快的响应能力，更好的柔性生产能力。人工智能、数字孪生等技术将在工业领域获得广泛应用。
热点四：数据产业
数据已经成为关键生产要素，当前国内正在推进数据开放、数据确权、数据交易、数据安全等方面的制度建设，制度体系完善之后，将进一步释放数据要素价值。围绕数据要素价值，将形成一个庞大的产业链。从上游的数据收集、数据处理、存储、清洗、预标注等，到中游的数据交易、数据经济、数据服务等，再到下游的数据应用、数据算法、人工智能和大数据分析等。数据产业将为企业带来新的价值增量，成为企业数字化转型的重要突破口。
二、预期2023年AI能在很多领域实现突破
展望全球技术前沿，2023年的数字前沿技术将洗净铅华，剔除泡沫，回归现实需求。2023年，由于全球央行紧缩导致的流动性收缩，从事前沿科技的企业将不得不通过自身造血能力来实现长期发展。前沿科技领域整体将从概念期转向成长期，具备现实应用需求，能够用前沿科技盈利的企业将获得新的发展。而在数字技术前沿领域，以下技术将成为2023年的热点：
（一）人工智能领域
在人工智能领域，2022年年底，OpenAI人工智能ChatGPT在年底掀起了一轮AI热潮，ChatGPT非常“啰嗦”，但它的确比之前的人工智能更善于思考，更像人类。人工智能正在从玩具向工具过渡，正在形成新生产力。当前AI正尝试在绘画、写作、写代码等领域超越人类，在互联网海量数据加持下，未来AI将继续保持高速成长，预期2023年AI能够在很多领域实现突破，并迅速普及。
（二）通信技术领域
在通信技术领域，5G解决了密集场所高速通信的难题，实现了低延迟、海量连接和高速通信。而对于下一代通信技术，在进一步优化连接性能的同时，还将实现广覆盖，偏远地区、通信死角将实现高性能通信连接。未来移动通信网络将不再局限于基站，简易飞行器（气球、气艇、无人机）、卫星等通信基站配置方式将成为下一代通信技术的重要组成部分。
（三）元宇宙领域
在元宇宙领域，3D引擎将成为元宇宙发展的核心技术。在虚拟世界，人类越来越追求真实的用户体验，而3D引擎正是构建虚拟世界环境的基础技术。3D图形引擎是元宇宙发展的核心驱动力，而这方面，中国在2023年还需迎头追赶。
综上，2023年数字经济将保持高速发展。在数字产业中，有些产业延续过去，诸如AI技术、通信技术、3D图形引擎等等，我们站在前人的肩膀上继续推动产业发展，构建产业未来。有些产业迎来新的起点，诸如数据产业，诸如平台企业释放新活力。2023年，数字经济对宏观经济的影响力将继续提升，发展数字经济，推动数实融合，掌握数字前沿科技，是2023年数字经济发展的主基调，也是企业家需要把握住的未来。
翻译：
In 2023, China will continue to be a cyber power and a digital China, but there will be some changes in the core theme of development.
From the global perspective, it is expected that European and American countries will tend to tighten monetary liquidity.
Globally, with the high inflation in Europe and the United States and the interest rate hike of global central banks in 2023, it is expected that the monetary liquidity in Europe and the United States will tend to tighten. Overseas capital’s investment in the Internet and digital fields will be weakened. Combined with the rise of global isolationism and trade protectionism, China’s digital transformation in 2023 will rely more on the support of domestic financial and industrial capital in promoting cyber power and digital China.
Digital integration will become the core of digital transformation in China
Domestically, on the one hand, China attaches importance to the development of the real economy, the future network power and digital China will be further integrated with the real industry, digital integration will become the core of the digital transformation; On the other hand, the special rectification of platform enterprises has been basically completed. In the future, normal supervision will follow the path of rule of law, further clarify the legal red line and clarify the rights, responsibilities and interests of the platform. Meanwhile, normal supervision will also release the economic vitality of the platform in a way of loosening constraints.
In the field of platform economy, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to “support platform enterprises in leading development, creating jobs and playing a big role in international competition”.
In the field of platform economy, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to “support platform enterprises in leading development, creating jobs and playing a big role in international competition”. On the one hand, platform enterprises will be loosened and return to orderly expansion in the future. On the other hand, it also points out the direction for the business development of platform enterprises. In the future, platform enterprises will develop in three directions: expanding the main business to create employment; Enabling entities lead development; Go abroad to expand the market. The diversified operation of platform economy in China will be more oriented to the real economy. Through the integration of enabling entity and data and real, platform enterprises can realize diversified operation by serving the government and enterprises at the B and G end.
In 2023, four hot industries deserve attention
In 2023, there will be a lot of hot topics in cyber power and digital China. I will refine the following four hot industries:
Hot spot 1: New cloud computing
In the early days, cloud computing mainly provided basic resource services, such as computing power supply and data storage space. However, with the improvement of various cloud service providers’ service capabilities. Cloud computing enterprises now provide users with more personalized and customized services with richer content. In 2023, platform enterprises will turn to the BG side, and the demands of the government and enterprise side will be more in the way of cloud computing. Which will replace the current IT system built by the government and enterprise. Compared with traditional IT systems, cloud computing. Which has the ability to allocate resources more flexibly. And the system operation cost is lower and the efficiency is higher. In the field of cloud computing enterprises, the leading Internet cloud computing enterprises and state-owned cloud enterprises will become the main force in the cloud computing industry.
Hot spot 2: information and innovation industry
The goal of the information industry is to make the information equipment independent. At present, there are still many products in the information products are subject to others, such as the underlying operating system, high-end chips and so on. The innovation industry will accelerate in 2023. On the one hand, it benefits from the policy support for Xinchuang products. Which on the other hand, it benefits from the support for Xinchuang products from the downstream demand side of government and enterprise. The pursuit of Xinchuang products by government and enterprise users is not only because of patriotism, but also to achieve independence in the supply chain. In 2023, Xinchuang industry will show the situation of supply and demand, and the most concerned is still high-end domestic chips.
Hot spot 3: Industrial Internet
China’s manufacturing industry is in a transition to intelligent manufacturing. With the rise of labor cost and upgrading of consumer demand in our country, standardized and large-scale consumer goods will gradually be replaced by customized and personalized consumer goods. Downstream demand changes, retailers require manufacturing enterprises to have faster response ability and better flexible production capacity. Artificial intelligence, digital twinning and other technologies will be widely used in industrial fields.
Hot spot 4: data industry
Data has become a key factor of production. At present, China is promoting the construction of data opening, data right confirmation, data trading, data security and other aspects of the system. After the system is improved, the value of data factors will be further released. Around the value of data elements, a huge industrial chain will be formed. From upstream data collection, data processing, storage, cleaning, pre-labeling, to midstream data trading, data economy, data services, and then to downstream data applications, data algorithms, artificial intelligence and big data analysis. The data industry will bring new value increment to enterprises and become an important breakthrough of enterprise digital transformation.
2023 is expected to see breakthroughs in many areas of AI
Looking ahead to the global technological frontier, the digital frontier of 2023 will wash away the lead, remove the froth, and return to the reality of demand. In 2023, due to the liquidity contraction caused by global central bank tightening, companies engaged in cutting-edge technology will have to rely on their own hematopoietic capacity for long-term growth. The frontier science and technology field as a whole will shift from the concept stage to the growth stage, and the enterprises that have the practical application demand and can make profits with the frontier science and technology will get new development. On the digital frontier, the following technologies will be hot in 2023:
Artificial Intelligence
In the field of artificial intelligence, at the end of 2022, OpenAI artificial intelligence ChatGPT set off a wave of AI craze at the end of the year. ChatGPT is very “verbose”, but it is indeed better at thinking and more like human beings than previous artificial intelligence. Artificial intelligence is transitioning from toys to tools, creating new productivity. At present, AI is trying to surpass human beings in painting, writing, coding and other fields. With the support of massive Internet data, AI will continue to grow at a high speed in the future. It is expected that AI will achieve breakthroughs in many fields and be popularized rapidly in 2023.
Communication technology
In the field of communication technology, 5G solves the problem of high-speed communication in dense places, achieving low latency, massive connections and high-speed communication. For the next generation communication technology, while further optimizing the connection performance, it will also achieve wide coverage, remote areas and communication dead corners will achieve high performance communication connection. Future mobile communication network will no longer be limited to the base station, simple aircraft (balloon, airship, UAV), satellite and other communication base station configuration will become an important part of the next generation of communication technology.
The metauniverse
In the field of metaverse, 3D engine will become the core technology of metaverse development. In the virtual world, human beings increasingly pursue the real user experience, and 3D engine is the basic technology to build the virtual world environment. The 3D graphics engine is the central driver of the metaverse, and here China will have some catching up to do in 2023.
To sum up, the digital economy will maintain rapid development in 2023. In the digital industry, some industries continue the past. Such as AI technology, communication technology, 3D graphics engine and so on. We stand on the shoulders of our predecessors to continue to promote the development of the industry. And build the future of the industry. Some industries have ushered in a new starting point. Such as the data industry, such as platform enterprises to unleash new vitality. In 2023, the influence of digital economy on the macro economy will continue to increase. Developing digital economy, promoting the integration of data and reality. And mastering digital frontier technology are the main keynote of the development of digital economy in 2023. And also the future that entrepreneurs need to grasp.
（作者系浙江大学国际联合商学院数字经济与金融创新研究中心联席主任、研究员，工信部信息通信经济专家委员会委员）
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