近期，马斯克心情应该不错。
美东时间1月27日（周五）美股收盘，特斯拉股价涨幅11%，报收177.90美元/股，当日市值上涨约567亿美元，约合人民币3800亿元。在当周，特斯拉创下公司2013年5月以来最大单周涨幅，股价累计大涨33%。
有观点认为，特斯拉股价此轮反弹或与美股大盘走势相吻合，另一方面，其公布的2022年全年财报数据也让投资者信心增强。
1月26日，特斯拉发布2022年财报数据显示，2022财年特斯拉实现总营收814.62亿美元，同比增长51%；毛利润为208.53亿美元，同比增长53%；总毛利率为25.6%，相比去年微增0.3%。
交付量方面，四季度特斯拉交付量约为40.5万辆；全年新车交付量为131.38万辆，均创下交付量新高。
在财报电话会上，特斯拉CEO马斯克毫不掩饰地表示，“在各个层面上，这都是我们有史以来最好的一年。”
虽然财务指标看上去不错，但特斯拉的成绩单仍算不上满分。毛利率的下跌与交付目标未达成，是特斯拉的减分项。
四季度财报数据中，特斯拉的汽车毛利率由2022年一季度的32.9%，降至25.9%；全年新车交付量也未达到原计划的150万辆。
马斯克认为，特斯拉的管理团队最关注营业利润率是多少。2017年~2022年，特斯拉的营业利润率从大约-14%提高到17%。
2022年，特斯拉除汽车业务外，诸如储能业务的重要性和营收占比出现了明显提升；备受关注的软件业务也在昭示着特斯拉未来的盈利能力。
但前提是，特斯拉能卖出更多的车。
过去的2022年，比亚迪超越特斯拉，成为2022年全球新能源汽车销量冠军。美林证券2022年发布的一份汽车研究报告显示，特斯拉在美国电动车市场的份额将可能从2021年的70%骤降至2025年的11%。
在2023年乃至更远的将来，特斯拉还会是那个全球最赚钱的新能源车企吗？
一、不仅仅靠卖车赚钱
2022年财务数据，印证了特斯拉不仅仅是一家电动汽车公司。
相比于公司总体业务收入50%的增长，特斯拉能源业务营收达到13亿美元，同比增长90%，布局储能业务的重要性开始凸显。
数据显示，第四季度特斯拉储能业务已经部署至2.5463GWh，同比增长152%，布局持续加速。“虽然在发展这项业务和改善成本方面还有很多工作要做，但相信我们走上了正轨。”马斯克表示。
在马斯克的构想中，可持续绿色未来的三大支柱分别为电动汽车、太阳能/风能、固定储能。目前，Megapack(特斯拉最大的固定式储能系统)产能增幅已经超越了汽车产能增幅。
Megapack是特斯拉储能业务中的重要模块，是适用于大型企业和公共事业单位的储能产品。
在财报中，特斯拉表示市场对于储能产品的需要超过其供应能力，位于加州的专用工厂正在提高产量。
据咨询机构麦肯锡预测，长时储能的潜在市场空间将从2025年开始大规模增长。
另一件对于特斯拉来说颇具意义的事，是其FSD（full self-drive，完全自动驾驶）在北美的全量推送。在马斯克看来，可实现自动驾驶的汽车，价值远高于非自动驾驶汽车。
2022年第四季度，FSD为特斯拉带来3.24亿美元收入。马斯克还在财报电话会议中透露，除高速以外，FSD的总行驶里程达到1亿英里（约合1.6亿公里）。
此前，由于特斯拉并不在财报中披露FSD的收入体量，外界并没有公开透明的途径获得相关信息。2020年一季度，特斯拉CFO Zachary Kirkhorn首次公开了软件“递延收入”的概念，并对FSD收入的财务确认规则进行了详细介绍。
当消费者选择激活FSD套件后，特斯拉会获得6000美元（现已上涨至8000美元）的现金，公司会将其中一半确认为当期收入，另一半则记为递延收入；后续收入的确认规则为，当特斯拉在FSD中新增加一项功能，就可将递延收入余额部分转换为当期收入。
截至2022年四季度，特斯拉目前账上短期递延收益还有17亿美元。根据特斯拉披露的消息显示，FSD所实现的递延收入部分的毛利率高达90%。
如此高的毛利率意味着，卖车只是开始，软件服务收费才是特斯拉未来最核心的商业模式。
二、成本控制是基本盘
当行业内的新能源汽车企业仍在亏损时，特斯拉在2022年实现了137亿美元的营业利润，营业利润率达16.8%。强悍的成本控制能力，被行业内视为特斯拉取得利润以及发展的基本盘。
在马斯克看来，营业利润率的增长归功于引入更低成本车型、增建更高效的本土化工厂、降低车辆成本和经营杠杆等因素。
此前，马斯克曾数次表示，特斯拉真正的竞争优势，也是其他公司最难复制的，就是拥有先进的生产制造技术。
过去，特斯拉在不断降低生产成本。2020年9月，特斯拉电池日上，马斯克宣布Model Y将通过一系列一体化压铸技术，将原来通过零部件冲压、焊接的总成一次压铸成型。天风证券一份关于特斯拉的研究报告显示，一体式压铸地板后总成可减少零部件79个，制造成本直接降低40%。
本土化生产则进一步强化了特斯拉的成本控制能力。从2019年宣布建设，仅用10个月时间，特斯拉上海超级工厂即建成投产。国产化之后，在包括流水线改造等一系列降本措施之下，加之中国较低的产业工人成本、物流成本等，特斯拉上海工厂以极高的成本效率，供应着除北美市场外的全球大部分市场。
而在核心零部件方面，特斯拉所坚持的电池自研于近期取得新进展。特斯拉在其社交平台账号和财报中，均声明4680大型圆柱电池的量产，取得了重大突破。目前位于美国加州的弗里蒙特工厂每周的电池产能已经能够支持1000辆Model Y装车，接下来可能会迎来批量化生产装机。
马斯克曾在2022年三季度财报电话会表示，4680电池相比上一代的2170电池能量密度提升了5倍，续航里程提升了16%，输出功率提升了6倍，并且成本降低了14%。如若结合材料与车辆设计的改进，单纯的生产成本最高可降低54%。
除此之外，财报中还提到，2022年特斯拉的利润中，有很大部分来自二手车和特斯拉车队扩增的支持性交易，比如配件销售、付费超级充电等等。
截至2022年年底，特斯拉在中国大陆地区开放使用的超级充电站数量已突破1500座，超级充电桩数量超10000个。
三、光环能维持多久
无论是软件实力带来的更高毛利收入，还是近乎严苛的成本控制动作，似乎都在成为特斯拉降价的“本钱”。
今年1月，特斯拉宣布降价，在不少老车主看来，单刀直入的降价，历来是特斯拉证明存在感的方式。而这种毫无预兆的降价方式，也直接引发了国内多地车主的维权活动，不少车主聚集在体验店内要求补偿，甚至做出一些激烈举动。
对此马斯克解释称，近期全球范围内大幅降价的举措，是为了缓解投资者对于严峻经济环境下需求减弱的担忧。
在2022年的财报中，马斯克坦言，对于普通消费者，汽车售价起着关键作用。这也是今年年初特斯拉降价的关键因素。“我认为有很多人想买特斯拉汽车，但买不起。所以这些价格变化对普通消费者来说确实有影响。”
此前，马斯克在推特空间的交流活动中表示，在经济衰退之时，增加销量、调低价格，在不把公司置于危险境地的情况下，尽可能快地增长。
过去的五年内，特斯拉的电动车平均售价总体呈现下降趋势。2017年至2022年间，特斯拉电动车平均售价已减半。
在分析人士看来，降价是特斯拉销量趋于疲软的一个迹象。美国投资研究机构Bernstein表示，特斯拉2022年在中国和美国市场的促销降价，意味着特斯拉可能存在需求问题。
据《中国企业家》统计，2022年特斯拉的降价举动共有两次，年内降价力度最高达5万元。即便如此，数据显示，2022年特斯拉新车生产量超出交付量近6万辆。
在电话会议上马斯克也提及了今年交付预期。特斯拉2023年预计交付180万辆新车，最多可能交付200万辆汽车。在与分析人士进行的网络直播中，马斯克透露，今年1月迄今，特斯拉接到的订单数量创有史以来同期最高水平。“1月份迄今为止，我们已经看到了有史以来最强劲的订单。我们目前看到的订单几乎是生产速度的两倍。”
但是，180万辆的交付量目标，并未达到特斯拉过去对于交付量设定的每年50%增长目标，180万辆意味着40%左右的增长，与2022年的增速持平。
标准普尔全球移动公司认为，虽然特斯拉目前仍是美国最畅销的电动汽车品牌，但竞争对手推出越来越多更实惠的车型，特斯拉在电动车市场的主导地位正在被削弱。
以中国市场为例，据乘联会数据，特斯拉在中国市场的主要对手比亚迪市场份额从2021年的19.5%上升至31.7%，同期特斯拉市场份额从10.7%降至7.8%。
资本市场则在去年就感受到了“寒意”。2022年，特斯拉年内股价跌幅65%，市值缩水超过7000亿美元。
更重要的是，特斯拉自动驾驶再次遭受严重质疑。据路透社1月18日报道，特斯拉自动驾驶软件总监Ashok Elluswamy在一段证词中承认，2016年特斯拉用来宣传其自动驾驶技术的一段视频是伪造的，视频中的汽车根本不是在自动驾驶。为了制作这段视频，特斯拉在预定的路线上使用3D地图进行导航。此外，在演示过程中，人类司机也进行了干预，同时出现了车辆撞到围栏上的情况。
特斯拉的市场表现，或许会因这一质疑而蒙上一层阴影。“我对于特斯拉最大的认可就是来源于自动驾驶等软件实力。”一位特斯拉车主表示，“以后我不会再买特斯拉了，我需要为我家人的安全负责。”
回归产品本身，特斯拉也已经近三年没有发布新车型，目前主力车型依旧是Model 3和Model Y。新车Cybertruck的量产时间一再被推后，据特斯拉官方表示，Cybertruck“将在今年晚些时候开始生产”。
在特斯拉的财报中，特斯拉重申已经为短期的不确定性做好了准备，包括专注于自动驾驶、电气化和能源解决方案等。
未来，特斯拉要做的，便是在诸多不确定性中，增加马斯克宏大梦想的确定性。
翻译：
These days, Musk should be in a good mood.
Tesla shares rose 11% to close at $177.90 on Friday (Eastern Time), giving the company a market value of about $56.7 billion (380 billion yuan). During that week, Tesla posted its biggest weekly gain since May 2013, sending its stock up 33%.
There are some views that the rally in Tesla shares may be in line with the broader U.S. stock market trend, on the other hand, Tesla’s 2022 full-year earnings report also gave investors more confidence.
On January 26, Tesla released financial data for 2022, showing that the total revenue of Tesla in the 2022 fiscal year was 81.462 billion dollars, up 51% year on year; Gross profit was $20.853 billion, up 53% from the previous year; Total gross profit margin was 25.6 percent, up 0.3 percent from last year.
In terms of deliveries, Tesla delivered about 405,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter; New car deliveries for the year totaled 1,313,800 units, both of which set new delivery records.
On the earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk didn’t shy away from saying, “This was our best year ever on every level.”
While the financials look good, Tesla’s report card still falls short of a perfect score. The decline in gross margin and missed delivery targets are Tesla’s subtractions.
In the fourth quarter, Tesla’s automotive gross margin dropped to 25.9% from 32.9% in the first quarter of 2022. New car deliveries for the full year also fell short of the 1.5 million units originally planned.
Musk believes Tesla’s management team is most focused on what the operating margin is. Between 2017 and 2022, Tesla’s operating margin increased from about -14% to 17%.
In 2022, in addition to the automotive business, the importance and revenue share of Tesla’s businesses such as energy storage increased significantly; The much-watched software business also hints at Tesla’s future profitability.
But only if Tesla can sell more cars.
In the past 2022, BYD surpassed Tesla to become the global champion of new energy vehicle sales in 2022. According to a Merrill Lynch automotive research report published in 2022, Tesla’s share of the U.S. electric vehicle market will likely plunge from 70% in 2021 to 11% in 2025.
In 2023 and beyond, will Tesla still be the world’s most profitable new energy vehicle company?
1. Not just by selling cars
The 2022 financials confirm that Tesla is more than just an electric car company.
With Tesla’s energy business reporting $1.3 billion in revenue, up 90 percent from a year earlier, compared with a 50 percent increase in revenue for the company’s overall business, the importance of laying out energy storage is becoming more apparent.
Data shows that Tesla’s energy storage business has been deployed to 2.5463GWh in the fourth quarter, up 152% year on year, and the layout continues to accelerate. “While there is much work to be done to grow this business and improve costs, we believe we are on the right track.” “Musk said.
In Musk’s vision, the three pillars of a sustainable green future are electric vehicles, solar/wind power, and stationary energy storage. Capacity growth for Megapack, Tesla’s largest stationary energy storage system, has outpaced that for cars.
Megapack is an important module in Tesla’s energy storage business. It is an energy storage product suitable for large enterprises and public utilities.
In its earnings statement, Tesla said demand for energy storage products was outstripping its ability to supply them and that production at its purpose-built plant in California was ramping up.
McKinsey, a consultancy, predicts that the potential market for long-term storage will grow substantially from 2025.
Another significant event for Tesla is the full push of its FSD (full self-drive) in North America. Mr Musk sees a car that can drive itself as far more valuable than one that does not.
FSD generated $324 million in revenue for Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2022. Musk also revealed on the earnings call that the FSD has a total range of 100 million miles, excluding high speeds.
Previously, because Tesla did not disclose FSD’s revenue volume in its financial reports, there was no open and transparent way for the outside world to obtain the information. In Q1 2020, Tesla CFO Zachary Kirkhorn unveiled the concept of software “deferred revenue” for the first time and detailed the financial recognition rules for FSD revenue.
When a customer chooses to activate the FSD kit, Tesla receives $6,000 (now up to $8,000) in cash, half of which the company recognizes as current revenue and the other half as deferred revenue; Subsequent revenue is recognized by the rule that when Tesla adds a new feature in FSD, part of the deferred revenue balance can be converted into current revenue.
Tesla currently has $1.7 billion in short-term deferred income on its books through the fourth quarter of 2022. According to Tesla’s disclosure, FSD achieved a gross margin of 90% on deferred revenue.
Such high gross margins mean that selling cars is just the beginning, and charging for software services is central to Tesla’s future business model.
2. Cost control is the basic disk
While new energy vehicle companies in the industry were still losing money, Tesla achieved an operating profit of $13.7 billion in 2022, with an operating profit margin of 16.8 percent. Strong cost control ability, the industry is regarded as Tesla profit and development of the basic plate.
Mr Musk attributes the increase in operating margins to the introduction of lower-cost models, the addition of more efficient localised factories, lower vehicle costs and lower operating leverage.
Musk has said several times before that Tesla’s real competitive advantage, which is the hardest for other companies to replicate, is its advanced manufacturing technology.
In the past, Tesla kept reducing production costs.
In September 2020, at Tesla Battery Day, Musk announced that the Model Y would be die-cast in one go through a series of integrated die-casting technologies, where components are previously stamped and welded. According to a research report on Tesla by Tianfeng Securities, the all-in-one die-cast floor rear assembly can reduce the number of components by 79, directly reducing the manufacturing cost by 40%.
Localized production further strengthens Tesla’s cost control ability. Announced in 2019, Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory was completed and put into operation in just 10 months. After localization, under a series of cost-cutting measures, including assembly line transformation, and China’s lower cost of industrial workers and logistics, Tesla’s Shanghai factory supplies most of the global market except the North American market with high cost efficiency.
In terms of core components, Tesla has recently made new progress in self-developed batteries, which it insists on.
Tesla has made major breakthroughs in the mass production of 4680 large cylindrical batteries, both on its social media account and in its financial statement. The Fremont, Calif., plant already has enough battery capacity to support 1,000 Model Y loads a week, and mass production is likely to follow.
Musk said on a third-quarter 2022 earnings call that the 4680 battery offers five times more energy density, 16 percent more range, six times more power output and 14 percent less cost than the previous generation 2170 battery. When combined with improvements in materials and vehicle design, simple production costs can be reduced by up to 54%.
In addition, the earnings report notes that a significant portion of Tesla’s 2022 profit will come from supporting deals for used cars and the expansion of Tesla’s fleet, such as accessory sales and premium supercharging.
By the end of 2022, the number of supercharging stations opened by Tesla in mainland China has exceeded 1,500, and the number of supercharging piles has exceeded 10,000.
3. How long the halo can last
Both higher margins from its software prowess and near-stringent cost controls seem to be driving down Tesla’s prices.
In January, Tesla announced a price cut, and for many longtime car owners, an outright price cut has historically been Tesla’s way of proving its presence. And this way of price reduction without warning, also directly triggered the rights of owners in many places in China, many owners gathered in the experience store to demand compensation, and even made some drastic actions.
Mr Musk explained the recent sharp price cuts around the world as an attempt to ease investors’ concerns about weakening demand in a tough economic environment.
In the 2022 earnings report, Musk acknowledged that the price of a car plays a key role for the average consumer. That was a key factor in Tesla’s price cuts earlier this year. “I think there are a lot of people who want to buy a Tesla car but can’t afford it. So these price changes do have an impact on the average consumer.”
In an earlier exchange in the Twitterspace, Musk said that during a recession, increase sales and lower prices to grow as fast as possible without putting the company at risk.
Over the past five years, Tesla’s average selling price for electric vehicles has generally declined. The average selling price of Tesla’s vehicles halved between 2017 and 2022.
Analysts see the price cut as a sign that Tesla’s sales are weakening. According to Bernstein, Tesla’s promotional price cuts in China and the US in 2022 mean Tesla may have a demand problem.
According to the statistics of China Entrepreneur, Tesla will cut prices twice in 2022, with the highest price reduction of 50,000 yuan within the year. Even so, the data showed that Tesla exceeded its deliveries by nearly 60,000 vehicles in 2022.
Musk also addressed this year’s delivery expectations during the conference call. Tesla is expected to deliver 1.8 million new vehicles in 2023 and could deliver as many as 2 million vehicles. In a webcast with analysts, Mr Musk revealed that Tesla had taken the highest number of orders in its history so far in January. “So far in January, we have seen the strongest orders ever. We are currently seeing orders at almost twice the rate of production.”
But the 1.8 million deliveries target falls short of the 50 percent annual growth Tesla has set for deliveries in the past. 1.8 million would represent about 40 percent growth, on par with 2022.
While Tesla is still the top-selling electric vehicle brand in the U.S. Its dominant position in the electric vehicle market is being eroded as competitors increasingly offer more affordable models, according to S&P Global Mobility.
In China, for example, BYD, Tesla’s main rival, saw its market share rise to 31.7% from 19.5% in 2021, while Tesla’s fell to 7.8% from 10.7% over the same period, according to the China Passenger Association.
Capital markets felt the chill last year. In 2022, Tesla lost more than $700 billion in market value after its stock fell 65 percent for the year.
More importantly, Tesla Autopilot is once again in serious doubt. Tesla’s director of autopilot software, Ashok Elluswamy, admitted in a deposition that a 2016 video Tesla used to promote its autopilot technology was faked and that the car in the video was not driving itself at all. To create the video, Tesla used 3D maps to navigate a predetermined route. In addition, human drivers also intervened during the demonstration, while the vehicle crashed into the fence.
Tesla’s market performance may be clouded by this doubt. “My biggest recognition of Tesla comes from its software capabilities like autopilot.” One Tesla owner said, “I will not buy another Tesla in the future. I need to take responsibility for the safety of my family.”
Back to the product itself, Tesla has not released new models for nearly three years. And Model 3 and Model Y are still the main models at present. Production of the new Cybertruck has been pushed back. With Tesla officials saying it is “on track to begin production later this year.”
In its earnings statement, Tesla reiterated that it is prepared for near-term uncertainty. Including its focus on autonomous driving, electrification and energy solutions.
In the future, Tesla’s job is to add certainty to Musk’s grand dreams amid the uncertainties.
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