近几年来，外资企业迁出中国的新闻已经见怪不怪了，2009年3月份，耐克关闭了公司位于中国的唯一一家鞋类生产工厂——太仓工厂，遣散中国员工达到1400人。2012年，运动服装巨头阿迪达斯决定关闭其在华唯一一家直属生产基地。2016年5月，飞利浦照明在荷兰交易所上市并成为全球最大的独立照明生产商同时，正式宣布位于深圳的飞利浦照明全资子公司飞利浦灯饰制造有限公司宣布正式停止运营，员工解散。2019年的数据显示有13%的美国企业搬离了中国市场，我们熟知的代工巨头富士康在越南等国进行投资超过了100亿元以上，三星在越南有着庞大的工厂规模。
虽然说舆论上制造业外流有夸大的成分，但自2012年以来，外资撤离中国却是事实，很多外企在中国降薪、裁员、关厂。中国被称之为“世界工厂”，是全球加工制造业的中心，这里面就有外资生产厂家的作用，在我国产业结构优化和升级的过程中，外商直接投资、建厂、提高产能起到了一定作用。外商直接投资给我国带来不少较为先进和使用的技术，促进了我国产品技术的升级换代。通过与外商的合资与合作，我国许多产品的技术水平也有明显提升。据资料显示，外资中的近70%投向第二产业，近30%投向第三产业，投向第一产业的比重尚不足2%。
如今，外资制造工厂的外流，尽管有生产成本特别是人工成本上升、税收优惠政策效应递减等因素，但全球产业链外移不能不说是一个非常重要的原因。
近几年，我国一直就面临制造业产业升级受阻和产业链外移的压力。随着中美竞争的加剧以及疫情的全球蔓延，在全球经济供需收缩的大背景下，无论是原材料、关键零部件进口，还是外部市场萎缩出口产品受阻，都对中国所处的产业链、供应链造成严重冲击。更重要的是，美国奉行的美国优先以及制造业回流，以美国日本为代表的西方发达国家开始重新布局或弥补或完善各自或相邻区域的产业链、供应链，降低对中国依赖，力争全球产业链、供应链去“中国化”。
2021年4月7日，日本经济产业省发布一项规模2,435亿日元（约22.63亿美元）的“改革供应链”计划，其根本目标就是资助日本的企业将产能撤离中国，包括用于资助日本企业将产线撤回日本本土的2,200亿日元，以及用于资助日本公司将工厂转移至其他国家，实现产业基地的多元化。
2021年4月9日，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任库德洛在接受媒体采访时表示，美国政府计划对美企从中国迁回美国所发生的所有成本，在当年进行100%的当期费用化处理，也即允许企业将这包括厂房、设备、知识产权、搭建、翻新在内的支出项目作为费用，在财务上对这部分金额进行税前列支，抵扣应缴税款总额，减少税负。
2021年4月16日，韩国化工巨头，韩国第三大跨国企业SK集团抛售所持的中国燃气集团全部5.35亿股，套现上百亿港元。
种种迹象表明，美国、日本政府已经开始谋划把包括化工产业链在内不少产业与中国切割的蓝图。我国将面临着制造业外流和去产业链的全面挑战。
在面临产业链去中国化的不确定性下，我国除了积极应对、争取时间、加快产业结构转型和提升之外，更重要的是两点：一是进一步打造更加完整的产业链，减少关键零件等的外部依赖，实现自主产权和自我保障能力，这一点虽然看起来是高科技实则需要钢铁行业的支撑；二是巨大的商品市场实现内循环，以市场空间发展壮大我国自身的产业链。
以前，我国通过改革开放，中国制造业从无到有，不但建立了完整的工业体系，而且迅速击败了很多发达国家的制造业，成为万商云集的“世界工厂”。如今，我国已经建立了全球最完整、规模最大的工业体系、强大的生产能力、完善的配套能力，因此，我国需要主动适应这个趋势，加快制造业升级，促进中高端制造业发展，同时打造我国完整的产业链，形成强大的、拥有自主知识产权的强大的工业制造体系。
此外，我国拥有1亿多市场主体和1.7亿多受过高等教育或拥有各类专业技能的人才，还有包括4亿多中等收入群体在内的14亿人口所形成的超大规模内需市场，有完备的基础设施、广阔的市场、新技术的应用和研发等，我国自身庞大的工业需求和市场韧性也为我国制造业提供了巨大的市场空间和发展潜能，我们完全可以通过新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化的提升，实现国际国内双循环的新型产业发展格局。（作者：麒鉴，北京建龙重工集团产业研究院院长）
翻译：
News of foreign companies moving out of China has not been unusual in recent years. In March 2009, Nike closed its only shoe factory in China, the Taicang factory, laying off 1,400 Chinese workers. In 2012, sportswear giant Adidas decided to close its only direct production base in China. In May 2016, Philips Lighting was listed on the Dutch Stock Exchange and became the world’s largest independent lighting manufacturer. At the same time, Philips Lighting Manufacturing Co., LTD., a wholly-owned subsidiary of Philips Lighting located in Shenzhen, officially announced that it would cease operations and its employees would be dissolved. Data in 2019 showed that 13% of American companies moved out of the Chinese market. The well-known contract manufacturing giant Foxconn has invested more than 10 billion yuan in countries such as Vietnam, where Samsung has a huge factory scale.
It is true that foreign investment has been leaving China since 2012, with many foreign companies cutting wages, laying off workers and closing factories in China.
Although the talk of a manufacturing exodus is exaggerated, it is true that foreign investment has left China since 2012, with many foreign companies cutting wages, laying off workers and closing factories in China. China is known as the “factory of the world”, is the center of the global processing and manufacturing industry, which has the role of foreign manufacturers, in the process of China’s industrial structure optimization and upgrading, foreign direct investment, plant construction, and increase of production capacity play a certain role.
Foreign direct investment brings many advanced and used technologies to our country. Which promotes the upgrading and upgrading of our products and technologies. Through joint ventures and cooperation with foreign businessmen, our technical level of many products has also improved obviously. According to the data, nearly 70% of the foreign investment is invested in the secondary industry. Nearly 30% in the tertiary industry, and the proportion of the primary industry is less than 2%.
At present, the outflow of foreign-funded manufacturing factories, despite the rising production costs, especially labor costs, the diminishing effect of tax incentives and other factors, can not but be said to be a very important reason for the shift of the global industrial chain.
In recent years, our country has been faced with the pressure of hindered industrial upgrading of the manufacturing industry and outward shift of the industrial chain.
As the competition between China and the United States intensifies and the epidemic spreads globally, against the backdrop of shrinking supply and demand in the global economy, China’s industrial and supply chains have been severely impacted by imports of raw materials and key parts, as well as export products that have shrunk in external markets. More importantly, the United States pursues “America first” and manufacturing reflux. Western developed countries represented by the United States and Japan begin to rearrange or make up for or improve the industrial and supply chains of their respective or neighboring regions. Reduce their dependence on China, and strive to de-Sinicize the global industrial and supply chains.
On April 7, 2021, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan announced a 243.5 billion yen (about 2.263 billion US dollars) “reform supply chain” plan. Its fundamental goal is to fund Japanese enterprises to withdraw production capacity from China. Including 220 billion yen to fund Japanese enterprises to withdraw production lines to Japan. And to help Japanese companies move factories to other countries and diversify their industrial base.
The US government plans to account for all the costs incurred by US companies moving back from China.
On April 9, 2021, John Kudlow, Director of the White House National Economic Council. Said in an interview with the media that the US government plans to apply 100 percent current expense treatment to all the costs incurred by US enterprises moving back to the US from China. That is to say, enterprises will be allowed to include plant, equipment, intellectual property, construction, renovation and other expenditures as expenses. In finance, pre-tax deduction is made for this part of the amount. And the total amount of tax payable is deducted to reduce the tax burden.
On April 16, 2021, SK Group, the South Korean chemical giant and the third largest multinational enterprise in South Korea. Sold all its 535 million shares of China Gas Group, cashing out tens of billions of Hong Kong dollars.
There are signs that the US and Japanese governments have begun to plan the blueprint of cutting many industries. Including the chemical industry chain, from China. Our country will face the manufacturing outflow and go to the industrial chain of comprehensive challenge.
In the face of the uncertainties of the de-sinization of the industrial chain. In addition to actively responding to, gaining time, and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure. China is more important in two aspects:. First, to further build a more complete industrial chain, reduce the external dependence of key parts. And realize independent property rights and self-protection ability. Although it seems to be high-tech, it actually needs the support of the steel industry. Second, the huge commodity market to realize internal circulation, develop and strengthen the industrial chain of our own with the market space.
China’s manufacturing industry has not only built a complete industrial system from scratch, but also quickly beat the manufacturing industry of many developed countries and become the “factory of the world” where thousands of businesses gather
In the past, through reform and opening up, China’s manufacturing industry has not only built a complete industrial system from scratch, but also quickly beat the manufacturing industry of many developed countries and become the “factory of the world” where thousands of businesses gather. Today, our country has established the most complete and largest industrial system in the world. Strong production capacity, perfect supporting ability. Therefore, our country needs to actively adapt to this trend, accelerate the upgrading of manufacturing industry. Promote the development of high-end manufacturing industry, while creating a complete industrial chain of our country. Forming a strong industrial manufacturing system with independent intellectual property rights.
In addition, China has over 100 million market players and over 170 million people who have received higher education or have various professional skills. It also has a large domestic market of 1.4 billion people, including over 400 million middle-income groups. It has complete infrastructure, a broad market, and the application and research and development of new technologies. China’s huge industrial demand and market resilience also provide huge market space and development potential for its manufacturing industry. We are fully capable of realizing a new industrial development pattern featuring both international and domestic cycles through the promotion of new industrialization, IT application, urbanization and agricultural modernization.
本文由数字化转型网（www.szhzxw.cn）转载而成，来源：麒鉴说财经热点，作者：麒鉴，北京建龙重工集团产业研究院院长；编辑/翻译：数字化转型网宁檬树。
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