大裂变与聚合时代，一切皆需要启迪新思想。
2023年10月27日，华夏基石首席专家夏惊鸣在第十届华夏基石十月管理高峰论坛上做了主题演讲。
以下为华夏基石首席专家夏惊鸣的演讲实录。
非常荣幸有机会和大家分享我的思考。
尽管数字时代早已经来了，但现在还只是刚刚开始，这个周期会非常长。第二次工业革命之后，蒸汽机带来上百年的产业发展。我想，数字时代带来的发展周期会更长。
那么，数字时代到底给产业带来哪些变化？我们没有办法准确预测，但还是可以去思考一些基本的逻辑的。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
一、数字化时代，产业演变四大创新方向
数字时代会带来哪些转变？有哪些逻辑？我总结了四个方向，参考下面这张图来看，今天的演讲内容也就是这张图。
第一，围绕着用户，以移动互联网为主导的发展方向。前几十年冒出了很多企业，都是围绕着移动互联网起来的。包括百度、京东、新浪、阿里、头条等等。
第二，围绕着系统，以物联网为主导的发展方向。现在讲的产业互联网，就是除了用户端，往价值链或产业链纵深方向的发展，比如无人工厂、智能养殖场、智能种植园、智能港口、无人煤矿、研发仿真、智慧供应链等等的出现，都是围绕着一个系统，进行数字化、智能化。这是基于系统以物联网为主导的数字化。
第三，围绕着产品本身，以智能化为主导的发展方向。有些产业还是以产品为重，该干什么还是干什么。比如食品，再数字化还是食品，再比如电视，还是做电视，但是和过去的电视不一样了。现在的电视已经是一个互联网终端，不是传统电视了，但我们需求很明确，就是要这么一个产品。在产品领域，在数字化时代，一个关键的发展方向就是智能化。
第四，以技术创新和基础设施建设为主导的发展方向。比如5G技术，云计算、传感技术、区块链、虚拟现实等，其实还包括其他技术，包括能源、新材料等等。移动互联网和能源革命也是有关系的，能源小型化了，就可移动，这是技术带来的一个方向。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
二、数字化带来产业的九大变化
（一）入口的变换
所谓入口，就是能与规模化用户或消费者链接的第一个“大门”。
入口的变换，是第一个变化，现在已经发生了。
过去的渠道入口是什么？是线下的门店。现在入口是线上电商——内容电商、搜索电商、社交电商。这是一个重大变化。
推广渠道，过去的入口是什么？是电视，打广告最好是在中央台，现在变成了各类互联网入口，百度、小红书、抖音等等。
产生规模化链接后，也就产生了流量平台。尽管入口在数字时代的变化是已经明确的，但是实际上“入口”还在不断创新和变迁。比如讲，刚开始的入口是社交、搜索和新闻，接下来就是各类电商，到了第三代，随着带宽和技术的进步，互动、视频的应用大规模产生，小红书和抖音应运而生。
那么，现在“入口”的格局已成定局了吗？还会有新的“入口”出现吗？
ChatGPT之后，Web3.0之后，区块链之后，元宇宙之后，会不会有新的入口？下一个“抖音”会是谁？入口争夺战还没有结束，因为技术在不断变迁！ 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
（二）流量平台为引擎的产业生态
由于入口的变化，就会带来流量平台，这种以流量平台为引擎的产业生态模式容易形成了。
这些年，我们经常看到的电商创新就是发生在“入口”处——和人链接的终端创新。
首先是纯线上电商入口，比如京东、淘宝、天猫等。
第二种是线上其他入口转变成电商入口。比如搜索延伸出了搜索电商，内容平台延伸出了内容电商，社交平台衍生出了社交电商等。
第三种是线下商业终端转移成为线上电商终端。比如传统的苏宁、国美，新型的百果园、兴盛优选、乐刻运动等，这就是我们通常所说的O2O模式。
第四种是线下的异业终端转化为商业终端。比如彩生活，是一个物业公司，也变成一个线上线下的商业平台。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
第五种是产品转化为电商终端。比如手机和人链接，手机其实已经变成了一个入口。从苹果开始，现在所有的手机都有应用商店。
第六种是把“人”作为了一个链接终端。比如饿了么、美团等原来是送餐的，通过配送和人的接触也变成了电商终端。
这些年，在商业的模式变化方面，我们看得比较多的主要是聚焦在终端。
但还有一种类型也已经出现了——以流量平台为引擎的产业生态模式。最早是从小米开始，还有很多企业比如百果园、乐刻运动、锅圈食汇等等都是这种模式。
我们通常理解，百果园就是一个水果专卖的商业连锁，线上线下一体化。但实际上，百果园已成为了一个以水果商业渠道为引擎的产业生态型公司。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
水果生意是非常“非标”的产品，很难做。举一个例子讲，哪怕是一颗树上的水果，外圈和里圈、阴面和阳面的味道都不一样。百果园以“好吃”为定位，以水果“好吃”标准为抓手，贯通整个产业链，延伸到了种植。百果园也开始有了自有品牌的水果品类，比如不知李的李子、良枝苹果、弥宗猕猴桃等等。曾经有网红直播，口号是“从地头到舌头”，其实这是一个伪命题，水果生鲜的问题不是在物流配送，尽管冷链还是一个问题，也不是在销售端，最核心的是种植端，就在地头。
由于有了产业链的优势，百果园又可以做全场景渠道，各类供应链公司也成立了；有围绕果茶饮连锁做水果供应链的小檬侠公司，有围绕夫妻老婆店做供应链的般果公司。
百果园有了流量优势之后，又可以不断叠加品类，这和京东的逻辑一样，京东原来卖3C，后来品类不断拓展，直至全品类。对于百果园，做到全品类是有难度的，但是这个逻辑理论上是成立的。百果园现在从水果延伸到蔬菜，再延伸到大生鲜等，但他们的做法是先要把上游产品做好，而不仅仅是利用流量优势。再到后面，百果园延伸出了数字化公司、金融公司等等，形成了渠道子生态、产品子生态、赋能子生态，是一个真正的产业生态企业。
不止一家企业这样做。锅圈马上在香港上市，超万家店了，是做火锅烧烤食材的连锁。刚开始从河南起始，“以买假货的价格让大家买到真品”的价值主张，迅猛发展。当年听我讲课的时候，才刚刚开第一家店，因为百果园的案例启发，包括我们和他合作做顶层设计，最终也发展成为一个以规模化终端驱动的产业生态模式。2020年我在锅圈上海供应商生态大会演讲时就讲到，跟随锅圈发展的供应商，可能三年之内会发展非常快，会有几十倍的增长，事实上就是如此。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
还有一家企业——乐刻运动，是做健身的连锁。它是连锁的商业模式吗？其实不是，它也是线上线下一体化，形成O2O的流量平台，未来可以经营不同的运动场景，也可以经营教练资源，也是一个数字化公司，未来也会有金融公司，这样的一个产业生态。举个例子，今天我们的会议也可以和乐刻联系，课间休息的时候安排一个健身教练带着我们跳操，他们现在和阿里、华为就有这种合作。
这个背后的逻辑是什么？
根本逻辑是，规模化终端的流量平台作为产业生态的引擎，实现了“销售的确定性”。
只要有了“销售的确定性”，上游供应链的投资风险就大大降低。举个例子，假设承包一万亩的地来种水果，最大的风险是什么？是投资几年之后，水果长出来了，卖不出去，烂掉了。所以，百果园有前端流量平台，再和上游联合起来发展品类品牌，上游的投资风险大大降低，这是由“销售确定性”决定的。乐刻、锅圈都是如此。
有了销售的确定性，可以快速突破规模化瓶颈。一个新企业，发展最难的阶段是0～1，是上规模，要想上规模，必须要投入人力、物力，但投入了不一定会有规模扩张，这就是规模化瓶颈。有了销售确定性，这个规模很容易突破。
有了销售的确定性，这个模式把市场经济变成了计划经济，提高了整个产业链的协同效率。比如百果园根据每年的销售计划，告诉上游种植端今年种什么品类，种多少，把市场行为变成计划行为。这样就大大提升了整个产业链的效率。只有提升整个产业链、产业生态效率，才能给客户、给各方参与者更大利益空间。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
（三）传统消费品的营销路径
消费品，尤其是新消费品突破，最大的难点是在品牌和渠道，而不是产品本身。产品是自己的事情，品牌和渠道是外部的事情，较难解决。品牌和渠道背后的本质是什么？是流量。渠道是流量，品牌背后也是流量。一个人知道你的品牌，和一亿人知道你的品牌，流量差异大相径庭，所以品牌背后也是流量。互联网时代就把品牌和渠道这种消费品最大的瓶颈解决了。我们看到很多新的消费品发展起来，也是利用了这个力量。
上面是基于用户以移动互联网为主导所带来的产业变化逻辑。下面看基于系统以物联网为主导所带来的产业变化。
（四）信息化、数字化、智能化
前面三个变化是基于移动互联网：入口发生变化；基于流量平台的产业生态模式的创新；基于入口的改变，也带来消费品的营销渠道和推广渠道的改变。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
基于系统来讲，也有三个改变，信息化、数字化、智能化。
用一个例子说明，比如百果园的顾客经营，信息化就是把流程线上化而已，协同线上APP、门店铺POS机、三无退货模块，统一的顾客视图化个人信息、交易、交互、资产信息等等。
信息化之后就会有数据，有了数据沉淀之后，就可以标签化，可以进行分析，可以辅助分析、决策，这就是数字化阶段。比如进行会员体系建设，通过会员标签化，可以根据消费数据进行画像，进而对顾客分析，从而实现顾客全生命周期的关怀与营销。
到了智能化阶段，根据数字化阶段的经验沉淀，明确一些关键领域，构建了学习模型、计算模型、决策模型，可以自主决策。比如每天的定货决策，原来是店长定，现在系统自主给出了订货的决策。这就是决策的智能化。
（五）全场景/全覆盖
我想到一句话：凡是过去干不了的，或者说现在干不了的，对于未来而言都是创新机会。我们的电脑时代，电源无法移动，通信也没有无线化，终端的移动化就有障碍，随着新技术，这就是创新的机会。
有了移动化、万物可感、万物端口化、带宽、算力、计算模型的发展，你想想，会带来多少的变化，多大的变化？这会对产业产生巨大影响，用一句话来讲，未来带来的变化是全场景的、全覆盖的，凡今天不行的就是明天的机会！ 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
（六）一体化/柔性化
在信息化时代，由于刚刚开始，信息化也是一点一点来的，是从局部开始，于是有了各种各样的信息化产品，一个企业有太多的信息系统，相互逻辑甚至字段定义都不一样，因此，企业内信息烟囱林立。但到数字化时代，大家的认知、信息产业基础都不一样，并且随着不断实践，在新型服务业进行信息化建设过程中，有了一体化设计的认知，都是自己养了几百人来开发，已出现了基于商业逻辑的一体化进行系统设计，并且通过中台化，形成了适应不同商业逻辑的数字化系统的柔性设计。比如，百果园、乐刻的信息化/数字化体系，信息烟囱的情况就大大降低。
这背后最主要的是“一物一码、中台化、协同化”。
上面是基于系统以物联网为主导所带来的产业变化，下面看基于产品本身，以智能化为主导所带来的产业变化逻辑。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
（七）产品的终端化
现在很多产品开始变成终端了。前面我讲电视是个入口。有的产品它可以变成信息连接的连接点，比如阀门，可以是自来水系统的信息收集节点。还有的产品如手表就是一个信息的端口。
这就是很多产品会变成信息终端，有入口型、链接型、端点型。
（八）产品智能化
产品智能化，是指原来的产品，但可以进行智能化改造。
凡属一个产品或产品实现用途是一个较为复杂的系统，基本上都可以进行智能化改造。床可以智能化，自行车可以智能化，炒锅可以智能化……当然，一切智能化都要从价值/痛点出发。
再比如，未来汽车一定是一个机器人，智能交通也一定会实现。大家再设想一下，我们每辆车的导航，都和云端实时连接，我的目的地，我的实时行驶状况都在云端，那么，云端就有了所有车辆的目的地、行驶状况，那么每辆车应该走哪条路、车速如何，到一定时期，一定是能计算出来。
（九）智能化产品——新技术、新产品、新产业、新世界
每当有新技术出现，就会有很多新的产品和新的产业是我们想象不到的。
比如，ChatGPT意味着什么？打一个形象的比方，ChatGPT就像我们学的公共英语，无论是学化学的，还是学机械的，都要学习公共英语。但大学还有专业英语，化学的有化学专业的专业英语，机械工程的有机械工程的专业英语。ChatGPT提供的所有人——各类专业的人的通常性沟通，未来各个领域通过公共英语建立起相互交互的能力，而“专业英语”是在自己的专业里面，通过本专业的大数据构建自己的模型，建立起专业性智能交互系统。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
可以畅想一下，在大数据时代，中医的时代就来了。中医就是根据历年的观察、试错、经验等“数据”总结而来的。一个人的疾病无非跟遗传基因有关，那么，父母犯病情况就是一个标签；跟自己的身体情况有关，那么自己经常犯什么毛病就是一个标签；跟生活习惯有关，那么生活习惯就是一个标签；跟现在的身体表征有关等等。通过这些内在逻辑，构建计算模型，中医的精准医疗是一定能实现的。但是问题出在哪儿？出在没有大数据。假如把全国所有的中医院全部上网，所有病例、诊断、效果，全都形成一个数据平台，那么就有了中医的数据基础，那么，中医模型就一定会实现，会不断进步，最终一个比人更高明的“中医模型”就会出现。最近，科大讯飞的翻译机就是语言专业的一个垂直化应用，未来不仅是大模型，各种专业性的应用——专业模型，会越来越多的涌现。
再比如讲，未来，在传感、传导和肌肉驱动机理等新材料、新技术进步到一定程度，我们人，眼睛，未来会不会有光传感器可以替代？耳朵，会不会有声传感器替代？鼻子，气味传感器替代？内脏可能也可以制造，胳膊、腿已有初步产品了。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
尽管这些离我们似乎有些远，但我们可以看到无限想象的新技术、新产品、新产业、新世界的逻辑！
以上，是数字时代，产业变化逻辑的思考。谢谢大家！
翻译：
Xia Jingming, chief expert of Huaxia Cornerstone: Understand the business mechanism of the digital age, 4 trends, 9 predictions
In the age of great fission and convergence, everything needs to inspire new ideas.
On October 27, 2023, Xia Jingming, chief expert of Huaxia Cornerstone, made a keynote speech at the 10th Huaxia Cornerstone October Management Summit Forum.
The following is the speech of Xia Jingming, chief expert of Huaxia Cornerstone.
It is my great honor to have the opportunity to share my thoughts with you.
Although the digital age is already here, it is just beginning, and the cycle will be very long. After the second Industrial Revolution, the steam engine brought hundreds of years of industrial development. I think the cycle of development brought by the digital age will be longer.
So, what changes has the digital age brought to the industry? We can’t predict it exactly, but we can think about some basic logic.
First, in the digital era, the four major innovation directions of industrial evolution
What changes will the digital age bring? What’s the logic? I have summarized the four directions, and refer to the following diagram, which is the content of today’s talk.
First, the development direction centered on users and dominated by mobile Internet. In the last few decades, many companies have emerged, all around the mobile Internet. Including Baidu, Jingdong, Sina, Ali, headlines and so on. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
Second, around the system, the development direction led by the Internet of Things. Now the industrial Internet, in addition to the user, is the development of the value chain or the depth of the industrial chain, such as unmanned factories, intelligent farms, intelligent plantations, intelligent ports, unmanned coal mines, research and development simulation, intelligent supply chain, etc., are around a system, digital, intelligent. This is based on the digitization of the system led by the Internet of Things.
Third, around the product itself, intelligent as the leading direction of development. Some industries still focus on the product, and what should be done is still done. For example, food, and then digital or food, and then television, or television, but it is not the same as television in the past. Today’s TV is already an Internet terminal, not traditional TV, but our demand is very clear, is to such a product. In the field of products, in the digital age, a key development direction is intelligence.
Fourth, the development direction led by technological innovation and infrastructure construction. For example, 5G technology, cloud computing, sensing technology, blockchain, virtual reality, etc., in fact, it also includes other technologies, including energy, new materials and so on. Mobile Internet and energy revolution is also related, energy miniaturization, mobile, this is a direction brought by technology.
Nine major changes in the industry brought about by digitalization
(1) Change of entrance
The so-called entrance is the first “gate” that can be linked to large-scale users or consumers.
The change of entrance, the first change, has now taken place.
What was the channel entrance in the past? It’s an offline store. Now the entry is online e-commerce – content e-commerce, search e-commerce, social e-commerce. This is a significant change.
Marketing channels, what were the past entrances? It is TV, advertising is best in the central television, and now it has become a variety of Internet portals, Baidu, little red book, Tiktok and so on.
After the large-scale link is generated, the traffic platform is also generated. Although the change of portals in the digital age is clear, in fact, “portals” are constantly innovating and changing. For example, at the beginning of the entrance is social, search and news, followed by all kinds of e-commerce, in the third generation, with the progress of bandwidth and technology, interactive, video applications on a large scale, small red book and Tiktok came into being. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
So, is the “entrance” now a foregone conclusion? Will there be new “portals”?
After ChatGPT, after Web3.0, after blockchain, after metaverse, will there be new entrances? Who will be the next Tiktok? The battle for access is not over yet, because technology is constantly changing!
(2) Industrial ecology with traffic platform as the engine
Due to the change of the entrance, it will bring the traffic platform, and this industrial ecological model with the traffic platform as the engine is easy to form.
In recent years, the e-commerce innovation that we often see is happening at the “entrance” – the terminal innovation that links with people.
The first is pure online e-commerce portal, such as Jingdong, Taobao, Tmall and so on.
The second is the transformation of other online portals into e-commerce portals. For example, search extends out of search e-commerce, content platforms extend out of content e-commerce, and social platforms derive from social e-commerce. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
The third is the transfer of offline commercial terminals to online e-commerce terminals. For example, the traditional Suning, Gome, the new hundred orchard, prosperous optimization, music movement, etc., this is what we usually call the O2O model.
The fourth is the conversion of off-line terminals into commercial terminals. For example, Color Life, a property company, has also become an online and offline business platform.
The fifth is the conversion of products into e-commerce terminals. For example, mobile phones and people link, mobile phones have actually become an entrance. Starting with Apple, all phones now have an app store.
The sixth is to use the “person” as a link terminal. For example, hungry me, the United States Group, etc. were originally food delivery, and the contact with people through distribution has also become an e-commerce terminal.
In recent years, in terms of business model changes, we have seen more mainly focused on the terminal.
But another type has also emerged – the traffic platform as the engine of the industrial ecological model. The earliest is from millet, there are many companies such as hundred orchard, music movement, pot ring food Hui and so on are this model. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
We usually understand that hundred orchard is a fruit monopoly commercial chain, online and offline integration. But in fact, hundred orchard has become an industrial ecological company with fruit commercial channels as the engine.
Figure 1. Business model of Baiguoyuan
The fruit business is a very “non-standard” product and difficult to do. For example, even the fruit on a tree has a different taste from the outer ring to the inner ring, from the dark side to the sunny side. Hundred orchard to “delicious” as the positioning, to the fruit “delicious” standard as the starting point, through the entire industry chain, extended to planting. Bai Guoyuan also began to have its own brand of fruit categories, such as plum plum, good branch apple, Yizong kiwi and so on. There has been a network red live broadcast, the slogan is “from the ground to the tongue”, in fact, this is a false proposition, the problem of fresh fruit is not in logistics distribution, although the cold chain is still a problem, nor is it in the sales end, the core is the planting end, in the ground.
Due to the advantages of the industrial chain, Baiguoyuan can be a full-scene channel, and various supply chain companies have also been established; There are Lemonman Company that does fruit supply chain around fruit tea drink chain, and General fruit company that does supply chain around husband and wife shop. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
After hundred orchard has the traffic advantage, it can continue to stack categories, which is the same logic as Jingdong, Jingdong originally sold 3C, and then the category continued to expand until the full category.
For 100 orchard, it is difficult to achieve the whole category, but this logic is theoretically valid. Hundred orchard now extends from fruit to vegetables, and then extends to big fresh, but their approach is to do a good job of upstream products first, rather than just using the flow advantage. Then to the back, hundred orchard extended out of digital companies, financial companies, etc., formed a channel sub-ecology, product sub-ecology, enabling sub-ecology, is a real industrial ecological enterprise.
Figure 2. Business logic diagram of Hundred Fruit Garden
More than one company does this. Pot ring immediately listed in Hong Kong, more than 10,000 shops, is a chain of hot pot barbecue ingredients. Starting from Henan, the value proposition of “Let everyone buy genuine goods at the price of fake goods” has developed rapidly. When I was lecturing at that time, I had just opened my first store. Inspired by the case of Hundred Orchard, including our cooperation with him to do the top-level design, it eventually developed into an industrial ecological model driven by large-scale terminals. In my speech at the Shanghai Supplier Ecology Conference in 2020, I said that the suppliers that follow the development of the pot circle may develop very fast within three years, and there will be dozens of times the growth, in fact, this is the case.
Figure 3. Pot ring business logic diagram 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
Another company, Loco Sports, is a chain that does fitness. Is it a chain business model?
In fact, it is not, it is also online and offline integration, the formation of O2O traffic platform, the future can operate different sports scenes, can also operate coaching resources, is also a digital company, the future will also have financial companies, such an industrial ecology. For example, we can also contact Letke for our meeting today, and arrange a fitness coach to take us to jump exercises during the break. They have such cooperation with Ali and Huawei now.
Figure 4. Loco business logic diagram
What’s the logic behind this?
The fundamental logic is that the traffic platform of the large-scale terminal serves as the engine of the industrial ecology and achieves “certainty of sales”.
As long as there is “certainty of sales”, the investment risk of the upstream supply chain is greatly reduced. For example, if you contract 10,000 acres of land to grow fruit, what is the biggest risk? It’s that after a few years of investment, the fruit grows, it doesn’t sell, it rots. Therefore, hundred orchard has a front-end traffic platform, and then combined with the upstream to develop category brands, the upstream investment risk is greatly reduced, which is determined by “sales certainty”. The same is true for music and pot rings. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
With the certainty of sales, you can quickly break through the bottleneck of scale.
A new enterprise, the most difficult stage of development is 0 ~ 1, is on the scale, in order to scale, we must invest human and material resources, but the investment will not necessarily have scale expansion, which is the scale bottleneck. With sales certainty, this scale is easy to break through.
With the certainty of sales, this model turns the market economy into a planned economy and improves the synergistic efficiency of the entire industrial chain. For example, according to the annual sales plan, hundred orchard tells the upstream planter what category to plant this year, how much to plant, and turns the market behavior into a planned behavior. This greatly improves the efficiency of the entire industrial chain. Only by improving the entire industrial chain and the ecological efficiency of the industry can we give customers and all participants greater space for benefits.
(3) The marketing path of traditional consumer goods
Consumer goods, especially new consumer goods breakthrough, the biggest difficulty is in the brand and channel, rather than the product itself. Products are their own things, brands and channels are external things, more difficult to solve. What is the essence behind brands and channels? It’s traffic. Channel is traffic, and behind the brand is traffic. One person knows your brand, and 100 million people know your brand, the traffic difference is very different, so behind the brand is also traffic. The Internet era has solved the biggest bottleneck of consumer goods such as brand and channel. We have seen the development of many new consumer goods, which also make use of this power. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
The above is based on the logic of industrial changes brought about by users taking the mobile Internet as the leading. Let’s look at the industry changes brought about by the system-based Internet of Things.
(4) Information, digital, intelligent
The first three changes are based on the mobile Internet: the entrance has changed; The innovation of industrial ecological model based on traffic platform; Based on the change of the entrance, it also brings changes in the marketing channels and promotion channels of consumer goods.
Based on the system, there are also three changes, information, digital, intelligent.
Use an example to illustrate, for example, the customer management of Baiguoyuan, informatization is to put the process online, collaborative online APP, door shop POS machine, three no return module, unified customer view of personal information, transaction, interaction, asset information and so on.
After informatization, there will be data, and after data precipitation, it can be labeled, analyzed, and assisted in analysis and decision-making, which is the digital stage. For example, the construction of the member system, through the member labeling, can be painted according to the consumption data, and then analyze the customer, so as to realize the care and marketing of the customer’s whole life cycle.
In the intelligent stage, according to the experience precipitation in the digital stage, some key areas are identified, and the learning model, calculation model and decision-making model are constructed, which can make independent decisions. For example, the daily ordering decision was originally determined by the store manager, and now the system independently gives the ordering decision. This is the intelligence of decision making. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
(5) Full scene/Full coverage
I think of a sentence: whatever can not be done in the past, or can not be done now, is an innovation opportunity for the future. In our computer age, power cannot be moved, communication is not wireless, there are barriers to mobile terminals, and with new technology, this is the opportunity for innovation.
With the development of mobility, the sense of everything, the port of everything, bandwidth, computing power, computing models, you think about how much change will be brought about, how much change? This will have a huge impact on the industry, in a word, the changes brought by the future are full of scenes, full coverage, where not today is tomorrow’s opportunity!
(6) Integration/flexibility
In the information age, because it has just begun, information is also little by little, starting from the local, so there are a variety of information products, an enterprise has too many information systems, mutual logic and even field definitions are not the same, therefore, the information chimney in the enterprise. However, in the digital era, everyone’s cognition and information industry foundation are different, and with continuous practice, in the process of informatization construction of new service industries, there is the cognition of integrated design, and hundreds of people are raised to develop it by themselves. There has been an integrated system design based on business logic. The flexible design of digital system adapted to different business logic is formed. For example, the information/digital system of Bai Guoyuan and Le Ke has greatly reduced the information chimney.
The most important thing behind this is “one thing, one code, medium and collaborative”.
The above is based on the industrial changes brought about by the Internet of Things as the leading system, and the following looks at the industrial change logic brought about by the intellectualization based on the product itself.
(7) The terminalization of products
Now a lot of products are starting to become terminals. I said earlier that television is a portal. Some products can become the connection point of information connection, such as valves, which can be the information collection node of the water system. There are products such as watches that are an information port. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
This is that many products will become information terminals, there are inlet, link, endpoint type.
(8) Product intelligence
Product intelligence refers to the original product, but can be intelligent transformation.
Where a product or product to achieve the purpose of a more complex system, basically can be intelligent transformation. Bed can be intelligent, bicycle can be intelligent, wok can be intelligent…… Of course, all intelligence must start from the value/pain point.
For example, the future car must be a robot, and intelligent transportation will be realized. If you imagine that the navigation of each of our cars is connected to the cloud in real time, my destination and my real-time driving status are in the cloud, then the cloud will have the destination and driving status of all vehicles, so which road each car should go and how fast it is, and it must be able to calculate it in a certain period.
(9) Intelligent products – new technologies, new products, new industries, new world
Every time there is a new technology, there will be many new products and new industries that we can not imagine. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
For example, what does ChatGPT mean? For example, ChatGPT is like the public English we learn, whether we are studying chemistry or mechanics, we have to learn public English. But the university also has professional English, chemistry has chemical professional English, mechanical engineering has mechanical engineering professional English. ChatGPT provides the general communication of all people – people of all kinds of majors, and in the future, various fields will establish the ability to interact with each other through public English, while “professional English” is to build its own model through the big data of its own profession in their own profession, and establish a professional intelligent interaction system.
You can imagine that in the era of big data, the era of traditional Chinese medicine is coming.
Chinese medicine is based on years of observation, trial and error, experience and other “data” summed up. A person’s disease is nothing more than genetic, then the parents’ disease is a label; If it is related to your physical condition, then what problems you often make is a label; It has to do with living habits, so living habits are a label; It has to do with current physical representations and so on. Through these internal logic, the construction of computational models, the precision medicine of traditional Chinese medicine is sure to be realized.
But what’s the problem? Out there is no big data. If all the Chinese medicine hospitals in the country are online, and all cases, diagnoses, and effects form a data platform, then there will be a data basis for traditional Chinese medicine, then the traditional Chinese medicine model will be realized, and it will continue to progress, and finally a “traditional Chinese medicine model” that is higher than people will appear. Recently, the translation machine of iFLYtek is a vertical application of language professional, the future is not only a large model, a variety of professional applications – professional models, more and more will emerge. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
For another example,
in the future, in the sensing, conduction and muscle drive mechanism and other new materials, new technologies have advanced to a certain extent, we people, eyes, will there be light sensors in the future to replace? Will the ears be replaced by sound sensors? Nose, odor sensor instead? Internal organs may also be made, and arms and legs are already preliminary products.
Although these may seem a little far away from us, we can see the logic of new technologies, new products, new industries, and new worlds of unlimited imagination!
The above is the thinking of the logic of industrial change in the digital age. Thank you all!
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