“中国仍有5年至10年中速增长潜力，下一步的出路是要加快挖掘新增长潜能。”近日，中国上市公司产业升级（太原）高峰会暨2023山西资本市场转型发展年会在太原举办。十三届全国政协经济委员会副主任、国务院发展研究中心原副主任刘世锦总结称。
他提出，未来中国经济增长，一方面要打开“横向需求空间”，即缩小中低收入群体与中高收入群体在终端需求结构上的差距，另一方面是提高“纵向升级动能”，就是提升产业的技术含量和附加价值，拓展经济上行空间。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
当谈论未来经济增长的动力与路径时，对于消费内需和产业升级的讨论，也是当天最为关注的话题之一。尤其是大力发展数字经济、加强数字化对传统行业的改造升级，更是多位经济学者与企业代表的共识。
一、打开内需动力的空间
“展望未来，需要顺势而为。现在世界经济还在低速增长，低迷的状态，但是经济增长的动能在积聚，止跌企稳，未来可期。”在中国政策科学研究会经济政策委员会副主任徐洪才看来，外部稳定性预期已经有明显趋稳的迹象，但内需不足、内部经济增长基础还不稳固的情况仍较为突出。
徐洪才强调，从整体的宏观经济来看，要把竞争性政策的基础性地位进一步夯实，要公平竞争，减少结构性政策。“未来还是稳字当头，我们也要对有利条件进行有效利用，比如说投资，投资有潜力，消费也有潜力，所以未来升级性、改善性的消费需求空间还是很大的，关键是提高中低收入群体的消费能力、购买力，这是重中之重。” 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
对于提升消费需求，刘世锦也提出同样的呼吁。
“最近在谈扩大消费的问题，你要搞清楚消费增长到底要增长什么。我们现在所谓生存性的消费，包括涉及到低收入群体的消费，基本上满足了。现在我们差的是发展型消费，也就是说社保、医疗、卫生、教育、文化体育娱乐、金融服务、交通通讯等等。”他分析道。
刘世锦更强调，上述发展型消费的提升，才会拉动整个消费结构的升级和消费量的扩大。这背后，怎么提升9亿中低收入人群的收入水平和消费水平，更为关键。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
“我认为中国下一步要推动的结构性改革，从需求侧来讲，以进城农村人口基本公共服务均等化为重点；供给端，以稳定房地产等既有支柱产业，激发企业家精神、助推传统产业升级、发展未来产业都是重点。同时推动以扩大有效需求、转换资产负债模式、化解防控风险为重点的资产负债端改革。”刘世锦总结道。
二、加速数字化转型升级
“我们现在面临的问题是，去十几年经济转型期里的老办法不太管用了，但是新办法是什么还不太清楚，还在探讨，有很大不确定性。”面对传统三驾马车当前的效果，刘世锦直言称。
而越复杂的环境之下，路径选择越重要。坚持走科技创新驱动发展，重视数字化技术运用，是多方共识。
香港致富集团研究院院长肇越就强调，实现科技发展，关键是要落地，立足现实，自主可控。“一是要产业链、价值链、供应链三链统一，不能仅盯着价值链的高端，要保证整个产业链是完整的，供应链也是完整的。二是要领先性、可行性和战略性三性兼顾，不能光想着领先的要把三个统一到一起。”
中国国际经济交流中心科研信息部副部长王晓红表示，数字经济毫无疑问是经济增长的引领者，尤其是占比更大的产业数字化，将通过数字技术拉动传统产业的新增长。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
“数字经济的核心组织是平台。数字化平台可以形成数字产业生态，集聚了大量的制造商、服务提供商，形成了产业链生态，，推动了中小企业的快速增长，成长壮大。此外，数字平台也是创新生态的构建者，新的技术平台会聚合大量的开发者，赋能各个行业与社会生活。”王晓红列举到。
多位上市公司负责人也表示，目前明确提出建设现代化产业体系的目标，数字化和智能化深度渗透到全行业，更辐射到补链、升链、建链、延链的全过程。特锐德董事长于德翔就表示，从公司过去十多年转型的路径来看，整个数字化升级的进程不是一个简单的口号思想、简单地组建团队、简单地聚合人才就能成功的，是需要切实构建一个从智能制造到充电运营，到数据增值服务的复合化人才、团队、管理、技术、文化的生态。 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
翻译：
We will accelerate the exploitation of new growth potential and explore the path of digital transformation in the industry
“China still has medium-speed growth potential for five to 10 years, and the next step is to tap new growth potential.” Recently, China’s listed Companies Industrial Upgrading (Taiyuan) Summit and 2023 Shanxi Capital Market Transformation and Development Annual Meeting was held in Taiyuan. Liu Shijin, deputy director of the 13th Committee of Economy of the CPPCC National Committee and former deputy director of the Development Research Center of The State Council, concluded.
He proposed that China’s economic growth in the future, on the one hand, to open the “horizontal demand space”, that is, to narrow the gap between low-income groups and high-income groups in the terminal demand structure, on the other hand, to improve the “vertical upgrading momentum”, that is, to enhance the technical content and added value of the industry, to expand the economic upside space.
When talking about the driving force and path of future economic growth, the discussion of consumer demand and industrial upgrading is also one of the most concerned topics on the day. In particular, vigorously developing the digital economy and strengthening the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries through digitalization are the consensus of many economists and business representatives. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
First, create more room for driving domestic demand
“Looking to the future, we need to follow the trend. Now the world economy is still growing at a low speed and in a sluggish state, but the momentum of economic growth is gathering, stopping the decline and stabilizing, and the future is promising.” In the view of Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Society of Policy Science, the external stability is expected to have obvious signs of stabilization, but the lack of domestic demand and the unstable foundation of internal economic growth are still prominent.
Xu Hongcai stressed that from the overall macroeconomic point of view, it is necessary to further consolidate the basic position of competitive policy, fair competition, and reduce structural policies. “The future is still stable word, we must also make effective use of favorable conditions, such as investment, investment has potential, consumption also has potential, so the future upgrade, improve the consumer demand space is still very large, the key is to improve the consumption power of low-income groups, purchasing power, this is the top priority.” 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
For the promotion of consumer demand, Liu Shijin also made the same appeal.
“Recently, we are talking about expanding consumption, and you have to figure out what consumption growth really needs to grow.” What we now call subsistence consumption, including consumption involving low-income groups, is basically satisfied. What we lack now is development-oriented consumption, which means social security, medical care, health, education, culture, sports and entertainment, financial services, transportation and communications.” “He analyzed.
Liu Shijin more emphasized that the above development of consumption will promote the upgrading of the entire consumption structure and the expansion of consumption. Behind this, how to improve the income level and consumption level of 900 million low – and middle-income people is more critical.
“I think the structural reform that China needs to promote in the next step, from the demand side, focuses on the equalization of basic public services for the urban rural population; On the supply side, stabilizing existing pillar industries such as real estate, stimulating entrepreneurship, promoting the upgrading of traditional industries, and developing future industries are all priorities. At the same time, we will promote the reform of the asset and liability side, focusing on expanding effective demand, transforming the model of asset and liability, and resolving and preventing risks.” Liu Shijin concluded.
Second, accelerate digital transformation and upgrading
“The problem we are facing now is that the old approach of the last decade of economic transition is not working very well, but what the new approach is is not very clear, it is still being discussed, and there is a lot of uncertainty.” In the face of the current effect of the traditional troika, Liu Shijin said bluntly.
The more complex the environment, the more important the path selection. Adhere to the scientific and technological innovation driven development, pay attention to the use of digital technology, is a multi-party consensus. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
Zhao Yue, director of the Hong Kong Rich Group Research Institute, stressed that the key to achieving scientific and technological development is to land, based on reality, independent and controllable. “First, we must unify the industrial chain, value chain and supply chain, not only stare at the high-end of the value chain, but also ensure that the entire industrial chain is complete and the supply chain is complete.” The second is to take into account the three characteristics of leadership, feasibility and strategy, and not just think that the leader should unify the three.”
Wang Xiaohong, deputy director of the scientific Research and Information Department of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said that the digital economy is undoubtedly the leader of economic growth, especially the larger proportion of industrial digitalization, which will drive the new growth of traditional industries through digital technology. 数字化转型网www.szhzxw.cn
“The core organization of the digital economy is the platform. Digital platforms can form a digital industry ecology, gathering a large number of manufacturers and service providers, forming an industrial chain ecology, and promoting the rapid growth of small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, digital platforms are the architects of an innovation ecosystem, with new technology platforms bringing together large numbers of developers to empower industries and social life.” Wang Xiaohong listed.
Many persons in charge of listed companies also said that at present, the goal of building a modern industrial system is clearly proposed, and digitalization and intelligence have deeply penetrated into the whole industry, and more radiate to the whole process of supplementing the chain, raising the chain, building the chain, and extending the chain. Yu Dexiang, chairman of Trude, said that from the path of transformation of the company over the past decade, the entire process of digital upgrading is not a simple slogan idea, a simple team, a simple aggregation of talents can be successful, it is necessary to effectively build a system from intelligent manufacturing to charging operation. To the data value-added services of the complex talent, team, management, technology, culture ecology.
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