根据人民网北京1月3日电 （记者王震）数字经济与实体经济深度融合的大背景下，数字化转型成为全球目光的焦点。然而，数字化转型之后，数字原生的世界、社会形态又将走向何方？近日中国信息通信研究院云计算与大数据研究所所长何宝宏围绕技术转型、信息革命、数据资产、Web3、信任科技、元宇宙、技术周期律、经济学2.0、AI、数字原生等热门领域进行了分享。
一、“数字化转型的终点是数字原生”
数字原生代诞生于21世纪初，指的是从小就生活在数字化环境中，每天与计算机、互联网和智能手机等打交道的人。何宝宏认为，数字原生代的娱乐、社交、学习和购物等生活学习都发生在数字世界，并且将数字世界的语言视为母语。数字原生需要在数字原生代基础上有两个方向的延展：一是从空间上的延展；另一个是从时间上的延展。
二、“算力基础设施将成为工业4.0的母体和营养”
对技术环境的适者，才有未来。何宝宏指出，任何一场技术革命都会经历四个阶段，即技术革命期、产业繁荣期、社会普及期和母体营养期，技术革命中的两个阶段分别对应在应用层面的是转型期和原生期。他用了一个形象的比喻：算力基础设施就像电气孕育了数字时代一样，将成为工业4.0的“母体”，为其提供营养。
三、“数据价值演进将经历四个阶段”
何宝宏表示，数据价值的演进将经历原始数据、数据资源、数据资产到数据资本四个阶段。数据资产建议多考虑相邻可能的创新，可以从软件、音乐等传统数字内容资产开始创新，目前业界从传统资产做起是，其实绕了远路。大数据技术一方面扩大了数据资源的范围，另一方面则顺道将个人信息带入了数据资源。因此，在数据时代，除了做产权保护之外，还需要注意保护个人隐私。
四、“Web3.0是互联网发展新岔道”
目前，互联网发展正面临以元宇宙为代表的信息互联网以及以Web3.0为代表的价值互联网的“新岔道”。何宝宏认为，价值互联网首先要制造数字稀缺性。密码学的区块链应用，从数字产权开始构建数字经济大厦。他举例，就像容器是云原生中承载代码的工具，NFT是Web3中承载价值的一种容器，是用算法在新型基础设施上登记数字产权。需要注意的是，NFT只是做产权登记，不限制对相关数字文件的共享或复制。
五、“基于VR的元宇宙仍是小众市场”
VR现阶段的体验并不像数字孪生，而更像是“数字植物人”，除了有视觉和听觉体验之外，还缺少嗅觉、味觉和触觉的感受。根据研究公司CCS Insight的统计数据，2022年全球VR和AR可穿戴设备的出货量下降了12%以上，只占全球手机出货量的1%，PC出货量的3%。何宝宏认为，现阶段，元宇宙依然是各种要素的“大杂烩”，还没有找到最佳实践，需要积极探索，将生产要素有机地组织起来。
六、“人工智能开始从学习走向了创造”
2016年，机器视觉可以从图片中识别文字；2022年，机器实现了AI绘画，可以通过文字生成图像。何宝宏表示，过去五年，由于大模型的参数指数级增长带来了大模型“智力”的指数级增长。2022年AI绘画和ChatGTP的重要性不亚于2016年AlphaGo战胜人类围棋冠军的价值。目前正在兴起的AI编程的软件2.0，可以实现以代码为中心到以数据为中心的编程思维，即程序员只需要设定超级参数，普通参数将通过数据训练实现。
七、“经济学2.0就是数字原生的经济”
何宝宏提出“经济学2.0”概念，他认为，经济学也面临着数字化的挑战——“稀缺性”的定义，信息商品化的悖论、经济人理性等问题。目前还出现了一种新的经济学，基于密码学、计算机/网络、数学/游戏伦理和经济学的加密经济学。当下的数字经济更多的是传统经济的数字化转型的结果。未来，元宇宙、web3和加密经济是否可以称为数字原生的经济（数字经济2.0），值得我们期待。
八、“互联网拥有‘七年之痒’”
关于技术的周期律，何宝宏认为互联网拥有“七年之痒”，每7年呈现一个新的发展阶段，从1994年的Web互联网，2001年的宽带互联网，2008年的移动互联网，2015年的产业互联网到现在的3D/价值互联网。互联网也存在持续25-30年的库兹涅次周期，即从1969年-1994年的以技术为导向的孕育期，走向1995年-2020年以“资本”为导向的繁荣期，最后发展到2021年以后以“ESG/基础设施”为主导的成熟期。
九、“数字原生企业会走向分布式自治、分布式自主”
谈及数字化转型与数字原生的关系时，何宝宏表示，当下，我们正处于数字移民和数字原住民或数字原生代混居的时代，是一个新老交替的时代。Web1.0是传统世界的数字化模仿；Web2.0是互联网原生的开始；Web3.0是数字原生的探索。未来，数字原生企业会走向分布式自治公司、分布式自主组织。
翻译：
Beijing, January 3 (Reporter Wang Zhen) Under the background of deep integration of digital economy and real economy, digital transformation has become the focus of global attention. However, after the digital transformation, where will the digital native world and social form go? Recently, He Baohong, director of the Institute of Cloud Computing and Big Data at the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, shared his views on hot fields such as technology transformation, information revolution, data assets, Web3, trust technology, metauniverse, periodic law of technology, Economics 2.0, AI and digital native.
“The End point of Digital Transformation is Digital Native”
Digital natives, born in the early 2000s, refer to people who have grown up living in a digital environment, dealing daily with computers, the Internet, smartphones, etc. He believes that digital natives’ life and learning — entertainment, socializing, learning and shopping — takes place in the digital world, and regards the language of the digital world as their mother tongue. Digital natives need two directions of extension on the basis of digital natives: one is spatial extension; The other is the extension of time.
“Computing Infrastructure will become the mother and nutrition of Industry 4.0”
Only those who are suitable for the technological environment can have the future. He Baohong pointed out that any technological revolution will go through four stages, namely, technological revolution, industrial prosperity, social popularization and maternal nutrition. The two stages of technological revolution correspond to the transformation and the primary stage respectively at the application level. Using a graphic metaphor, he said that computing infrastructure, just as electricity gave birth to the digital age, will become the “mother” of Industry 4.0, feeding it.
“Data Value Evolution will Experience Four Stages”
According to He Baohong, the evolution of data value will go through four stages: original data, data resources, data assets and data capital. It is suggested to consider more possible innovations in data assets, starting from traditional digital content assets such as software and music. At present, starting from traditional assets is actually a long way round. On the one hand, big data technology expands the scope of data resources; on the other hand, it brings personal information into data resources. Therefore, in the age of data, in addition to property rights protection, also need to pay attention to the protection of personal privacy.
“Web3.0 is a New Fork in the Development of the Internet”
At present, the development of the Internet is facing the “new fork” of the information Internet represented by the meta-universe and the value Internet represented by Web3.0. According to He Baohong, the value Internet first creates digital scarcity. The blockchain application of cryptography builds the building of digital economy from digital property rights. For example, just as a container is a tool for hosting code in the cloud native, NFT is a container for hosting value in Web3, which uses algorithms to register digital property on a new infrastructure. It should be noted that the NFT is only a registration of property rights and does not restrict the sharing or copying of relevant digital files.
“VR Based metaverse is Still a Niche Market”
The current VR experience is not like a digital twin, but more like a “digital vegetable”, in addition to visual and auditory experience, but also lack of smell, taste and touch feelings. According to statistics from research firm CCS Insight, global shipments of VR and AR wearables fell by more than 12 percent in 2022, accounting for just 1 percent of global mobile phone shipments and 3 percent of PC shipments. He Baohong believes that at the present stage, the meta-universe is still a “hodgepodge” of various elements, and the best practice has not been found, so we need to actively explore and organically organize the production factors.
“AI Moves from learning to Creation”
In 2016, machine vision can recognize words from pictures; In 2022, machines realized AI painting, which can generate images from text. He Baohong said that in the past five years, the exponential growth of the parameters of the big model has led to the exponential growth of the “intelligence” of the big model. The importance of AI painting and ChatGTP in 2022 is no less than the value of AlphaGo’s victory over a human Go champion in 2016. Software 2.0 of AI programming, which is currently emerging, can realize code-centric to data-centric programming thinking, that is, programmers only need to set super parameters, and ordinary parameters will be realized through data training.
“Economics 2.0 is a Digitally Native Economy”
He Baohong put forward the concept of “Economics 2.0”. He believes that economics is also facing the challenges of digitalization — the definition of “scarcity”, the paradox of information commercialization, economic human rationality and so on. There is also a new economics emerging, cryptoeconomics based on cryptography, computer/network, mathematical/game ethics, and economics. The current digital economy is more the result of the digital transformation of the traditional economy. In the future, whether metaverse, web3 and crypto economy can be called digital native economy (digital economy 2.0), it is worth looking forward to.
“The Internet has a ‘Seven-Year Itch'”
About the periodic law of technology, He Baohong believes that the Internet has a “seven-year itch”, showing a new development stage every seven years, from the Web Internet in 1994, broadband Internet in 2001, mobile Internet in 2008, industrial Internet in 2015 to the current 3D/ value Internet. The Internet also has a Kuznet sub-cycle lasting 25 to 30 years, that is, from the technology-oriented gestation period from 1969 to 1994, to the “capital” oriented boom period from 1995 to 2020, and finally to the “ESG/ infrastructure” dominated maturity period after 2021.
“Digital native Enterprises will move towards distributed autonomy and distributed autonomy”
When talking about the relationship between digital transformation and digital natives, He Baohong said that at present, we are in an era where digital immigrants and digital natives or digital natives mix together, which is an era where the old and the new alternate. Web1.0 is a digital imitation of the traditional world; Web2.0 is the beginning of Internet native; Web3.0 is an exploration of digital native. In the future, digital native enterprises will move towards distributed autonomous companies and distributed autonomous organizations.
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